2022 Sun Belt Grades

 2022 Sun Belt Conference Grades

Appalachian State

Preseason Rating: 69.5 

Final Rating: 65.5

Standards are perhaps no higher at any G5 school than they are at Appalachian State. The Mountaineers win nearly every year and are a constant presence atop the Sun Belt Conference standings. Coaches come and go, but wins continue accumulating in Boone. A solid bet over ever since joining FBS, lines often reflect an impression that App State is even better than they probably truly are. This season, Appalachian State was again predicted to be neck and neck with Coastal Carolina in the SBC East division. A wild shootout loss at home to North Carolina was disappointing but bolstered belief in this year’s Mountaineers. Upsetting Texas A&M on the road, while the Aggies were still considered top notch, and a dramatic hail mary win over Troy the following game seemed to indicate all systems go. However, first year FBS member James Madison pulled off the upset to set App State back to only 2-2. The season continued unraveling from there. No more impressive wins were had the rest of the way and the Mountaineer’s power rating took a dip towards its worst level in years. App State offered value early in the year that slowly but surely disappeared by the second half of the schedule. Surely, some bounceback is expected next season, but programs can fade from a high status rather quickly if vigilance is absent.

2022 Grade: C

Coastal Carolina

Preseason Rating: 64.5

Final Rating: 57

The Chanticleers spent most of 2022 marching back towards a potentially excellent record that could have made a NY6 appearance possible. However, a stunning home blowout loss to Old Dominion and a regular season ending humiliation at James Madison stopped that. Coastal Carolina then lost convincingly at Troy in the Sun Belt Championship when Jamey Chadwell was in talks to become Liberty’s new head coach. The change really rattled the team and could set this program back quite a bit. But as far as 2022 was concerned, good bets could be had on Coastal Carolina at just the right times throughout the year. Grayson McCall was terrific and a bad defense figured out how to step up from time to time. After all, one of the juiciest betting opportunities of the season occurred when Coastal hosted Appalachian State in early November on a weeknight. The Chanticleers were getting a few points and never trailed against the spread. Opportunities like that do not come up very often. Still, the final power rating belies the true strength of this team. Injuries to Grayson McCall and Chadwell’s departure caused most of the drop. However, the team as a whole was not performing as well as the past several years. It will be interesting to see what happens to this program with Chadwell’s departure. Will it remain a yearly Sun Belt contender? Or, will obscurity become the norm and bowl eligibility not a guarantee? Time will tell.

2022 Grade: B

Georgia Southern

Preseason Rating: 51.5

Final Rating: 58

Make no mistake, Georgia Southern is a stepping stone job for coaches who will jump ship at the first chance. That truth is why it was rather surprising the school managed to grab former USC coach Clay Helton. USC was not the worst during his tenure, but the Trojans failed to meet expectations. Therefore, Georgia Southern figured hiring Helton was the value play. And, Helton helped increase the Eagles power rating just short of a full touchdown in his first season in Statesboro. The addition of quarterback Kyle Vantrease through the transfer portal sure helped. The transfer passer was impressive despite his turnover rate. His early season performance in a win at Nebraska helped jump start a good first half of the season. The Eagles went on to defeat every team on their schedule that they should have save Georgia State. A late season three game losing streak against other good Sun Belt members did little to ruin the season. A regular season double overtime victory at home against Appalachian State clinched a bowl game. Vantrease performed worse than usually in the bowl against his former Buffalo team. Beating a P5 team on the road and reaching a bowl is certainly a success for a new head coach at a school like Georgia State. 

2022 Grade: B-

Georgia State

Preseason Rating: 62.5

Final Rating: 59.5

Georgia State had relatively high expectations for this season. A solid running game and a decent quarterback made this team a nice bet in 2021. Several upsets and returning experience indicated a team on the rise. This would not be the case; the Panthers went 4-8, lost to some very poor teams, and routinely lost close games. Sure, those close losses as an underdog were nice for Georgia State backers, but it did little to improve the overall team power rating. Dropping a field goal over the course of a single season is not much, but Georgia State had been a darkhorse for the Sun Belt. The season surely could have gone worse. But, losses to Charlotte and Louisiana-Monroe were hardly excusable. 

2022 Grade: C-

James Madison

Preseason Rating: 56 

Final Rating: 65

The move from FCS to FBS is no easy task. However, James Madison surely made it appear to be a cake walk during the first half of the season. The Dukes won their first five games, including a road win at traditional SBC power Appalachian State. Only a three game losing streak in the middle of the year blemished the win-loss record. Plus, one of the losses was to Louisville. Three wins bookended the season and JMU finished 8-3. However, the NCAA rule prohibiting transitioning teams from attaining bowl eligibility was in effect. All things considered, JMU offered excellent betting value for most of the season and backed it up on the field. Reaching eight wins in year one of FBS is impressive. Watch for this team in the future.

2022 Grade: A

Marshall

Preseason Rating: 62 

Final Rating: 65

Marshall is one of the most consistent programs in college football. However, losing the excellent Doc Holliday would surely set the Thundering Herd back a bit. Yet, Charles Huff’s solid coaching in 2021 resulted in a bowl appearance. Leaving CUSA for the Sun Belt Conference would surely negate Huff’s good coaching in year two. Again, Huff was terrific and Marshall had a wonderful season in their new league. A Week 2 upset win at Notre Dame made the year before conference play even began. A surprising loss to Bowling Green the next week scratched a lot of heads and a loss to Troy the next week dropped Marshall’s rating nearly back to the preseason number. A lacking offense but a strong defense would be the theme the rest of the way. Marshall scored thirty points against FBS competition exactly once all season (the 31-34 overtime loss to Bowling Green). But, the defense held opposition below that same number in every other game. So long as Marshall could manage some points, they would win games. Huff did an adequate job in year two all things considered.

2022 Grade: B-

Old Dominion

Preseason Rating: 57 

Final Rating: 56

Old Dominion is one of the tougher programs at which winning comes easily. For the most part, the Monarchs had been an afterthought during their time in CUSA. Surely things would be harder in the Sun Belt, a conference considered to be on the rise. And, that turned out to be exactly correct. ODU rode a solid defensive performance to upset Virginia Tech in Week 1. It turned out the Hokies would be awful. Still, the win was over a P5 opponent. Only two more wins remained on the schedule. One against lowly Arkansas State and the other being a total shocker against Coastal Carolina. So, there were a few chances to back the Monarchs this year, but Old Dominion was more of a team bettors looked to fade. The defense was relatively stout; they only gave up thirty or more points three times. So, that should be a sign that there are some decent pieces in Norfolk. Not much was expected in year one of a conference change and Coach Ricky Rahne seems to have a long leash at the school and has surprised in the past. Let’s see if his team improves in year two of Sun Belt membership.

2022 Grade: D

Arkansas State

Preseason Rating: 45 

Final Rating: 49

Arkansas State has taken a massive step back as a program since the departure of Blake Anderson to Utah State. The Red Wolves have won just five games over Butch Jones’ first two seasons and exactly none of those was against a quality opponent: Two wins against FCS opponents, two wins against Lousiana-Monroe, and one win against awful independent UMass. Clearly Jones has his work cut out for him. Having said that, Arkansas State is a surprising cover from time to time but is not reliable enough to be seriously considered on a weekly basis. Improvement typically comes in droves during year three of a coaching tenure. Perhaps Jones will turn things around; it would be a minor miracle.

2022 Grade: D

Louisiana

Preseason Rating: 55 

Final Rating: 61

Losing a good coach is typically a significant loss for a program. For Louisiana, it seemed a minor setback. The Ragin’ Cajuns managed a bowl appearance despite the loss of multiple key players and the very good Billy Napier, who took the Florida job. The back to back Sun Belt champs did not have expectations matching those of the previous two seasons, but they still expected to remain out of the conference basement. Those hopes were dashed, at first, when Louisiana suffered a three game losing streak, including losses against Louisiana-Monroe and first year Sun Belt member Rice. The Cajuns regressed for sure, but not by a magnitude similar of a G5 who loses its head coach. Wins came, but at no point did the Cajuns seem to be a Sun Belt front runner. A bowl loss against Houston was a disappointment but not embarrassing by any means. New coach Michael Desormeuax did a decent job in his first season at the helm.

2022 Grade: C

Louisiana - Monroe

Preseason Rating: 45.5

Final Rating: 50

Louisiana-Monroe is one of the most difficult schools at which to win football games in FBS. The Warhawks do not recruit well and have perhaps the worst resources of any team in college football’s top division. However, any improvement is noticeable. Terry Bowden did a fully acceptable job in year two given these circumstances. ULM played both Texas and Alabama in non-conference, obviously losing both games. But, a surprise upset over a somewhat rebuilding Louisiana team served to up morale. ULM began covering spreads but did lose its next four outright. The defense improved somewhat but still allowed too many points. At least the offense moved the ball to an extent respectable of a bottom dwelling Sun Belt squad. Honestly, winning four games at ULM is an achievement. Bowden has experience turning around terrible programs. Merely escaping the basement of FBS in year two is cause for celebration. Let’s see if year three marks further program development in Monroe.

2022 Grade: C+

South Alabama

Preseason Rating: 55.5 

Final Rating: 64

South Alabama had the best season in the Sun Belt outside of Troy. The Jaguars won ten games and did not lose to a bad opponent. In fact, Kane Wommack has completely turned around this program; South Alabama had no winning seasons prior to 2022, but had made some bowls by finishing just 6-6. Still, this was not a winning program. The Jaguars were consistently good this year and an excellent bet often. This program is serious now and has a realistic chance at competing for Sun Belt crowns yearly. That is, until Wommack is likely grabben by a higher paying school. South Alabama is now likely in a higher tier of power rating range than before. 

2022 Grade: A-

Southern Miss

Preseason Rating: 52 

Final Rating: 59

Anytime a team improves its power rating a touchdown over the course of a season, that season was successful. Will Hall did just that at Southern Miss. The Golden Eagles were a complete mess just last year, until Hall began really thinking outside the box and getting creative with his game planning. This guy is the real deal. He is contrarian enough to where it works but is barely noticed. USM really only had one bad loss this year (a blowout defeat against Georgia State), but beyond that a 6-6 regular season plus a bowl win is nothing to scoff at in Hattiesburg. Not bad for a first year in a new conference. Now, while USM is not in the elite of the Sun Belt quite yet, they are on their way to being competitive each season and making bowls. Quite frankly, that is probably going to be the ceiling for some time. 

2022 Grade: B+

Texas State

Preseason Rating: 49 

Final Rating: 50.5

There is not much to say about Texas State. This program continues to struggle since moving up from FCS. Sure, the Bobcats were competitive in more games than they usually are; they even upset Appalachian State! But, things were still not good. At no point this season was Texas State a serious contender. Most prognosticators predicted this team would finish near the basement of the Sun Belt; they were correct. Keeping losses close will only save a coach for so long, and Jake Spavital found that out when he was dismissed. He subsequently was hired by Cal to be an OC. Back in San Marcos, Texas State hopes it might finally string some wins together and at least move up in the standings a spot or two. Sure, the power rating rose a point and a hook, but that just is not enough when you are starting in the forties. 

2022 Grade: D

Troy

Preseason Rating: 55 

Final Rating: 66.5

Troy made perhaps the most improvement of any G5 team outside of Tulane this season. And arguably, even more from where they were. Troy had a new coach this season, a first time coach at that. Yet, the Torjans final loss of the season came on a hail mary loss at Appalachian State in Week 3. They did not lose again. Nearly every win was impressive and they found ways to win the close ones and dominated others. Not much else to say but that the Trojans should offer some nice odds at Kansas State early next season. Jon Sumrall did perhaps the best job of any coach in FBS this season. 

2022 Grade: A