2022 SEC GRADES

2022 SEC GRADES 

Florida

Preseason Rating: 80 

Final Rating: 74

Florida is one of the few programs that entertains no matter what their record is. Their place in the SEC and their tumultuous history likely has a lot to do with that. First year coach Billy Napier was likely a great hire and won his very first game over a Utah team who had somewhat realistic expectations of reaching the CFP. However, a loss to Kentucky the very next week ended a short honeymoon in Gainesville. Florida avoided bad losses until late in the year at a surging Vanderbily team. A one score loss at FSU and a blowout loss in the bowl soured a relatively good year for a head coach making his first go of it in the SEC. Overall, Florida had some really impressive wins and dispute their rating dropping six points from start of year to the end, Napier did a solid job. Yes, the transfer portal was welcoming for many Gators, but Napier has shown his system works with time. This program could be under a lot of “expert’s” radars next season. 

2022 Grade: B

Georgia

Preseason Rating: 92 

Final Rating: 

Will be updated following the National Championship.

Kentucky

Preseason Rating: 78 

Final Rating: 79

Mark Stoops always does an excellent job coaching at Kentucky. Sure, the Wildcats have yet to get into the NY6 during Stoops’s tenure, but attaining relative success is far more frequent now than in the recent past. Stoops has coached the team long enough to where the power level is fairly predictable. Kentucky will punch above its weight but occasionally lose games that it should not (Vanderbilt in 2022). This season, an experienced quarterback and solid run game, combined with a decent defense, were enough to get Kentucky to a late bowl game. A tougher schedule resulted in a worse win-loss record than usual but a bowl game was still reached. Opt outs prevented Kentucky from having any shot in the game. There is not much else to say about this program. They are predictable year in and year out. 

2022 Grade: B- 

Missouri

Preseason Rating: 65

Final Rating: 69.5

Eli Drinkwitz likely began 2022 on a hot seat. Early game outcomes did not look good for the coach’s job security. A 2-4 start reassured nobody that Drinkwitz’s job was strongly his to keep. However, only one of the losses was by more than one score and the Tigers even had a real chance to beat Georgia at home. Still, a close win against Vanderbilt did little to change the tide. Finally, a strong road win at newly ranked South Carolina was the first real sign that Mizzou could reach a bowl. At that point, 4-4 might as well have been 6-2. Yet, a close loss at Kentucky and a blowout loss at Tennessee put Drinkwitz right back in stress mode. Keep in mind, none of these losses were bad. Every team was good except Auburn. Luckily, Missouri had a late game non-conference tilt with a walk over in New Mexico State and then upset Arkansas to end their year and clinch bowl eligibility. The bowl loss to Wake Forest was nothing of which to be ashamed. Overall, Missouri had a good year that could have been very special had a handful of plays gone their way. Still, Drikwitz’s job should be safe for at least next year. It will be interesting to see where the Tigers land when the SEC reorganizes with the additions of Texas and Oklahoma in a few years.  

2022 Grade: B+

South Carolina

Preseason Rating: 76

Final Rating: 73

Shane Beamer already has South Carolina winning enough games to make a bowl and pulling off upsets large enough to garner national attention. The Gamecocks provided solid wagering opportunities as underdogs but too much volatility made favoritism difficult to support. Against significantly inferior non-conference opponents, South Carolina could be dependable. But lay points against any SEC caliber team and South Carolina folded like a house of cards. A poor showing against Florida in November was followed by two massive upset wins against top ten Tennessee and Clemson. Beamer has this program headed in the right direction. The bowl loss was close enough to garner respect. Beating Georgia might be a long while away, but South Carolina can make the top 25 a regular expectation if recruiting goes well. 

2022 Grade: B  

Tennessee

Preseason Rating: 78

Final Rating: 88.5

The Vols are seemingly overhyped every season. This season, high expectations were warranted. Obviously the Vols tremendous offense rightfully got most of the attention. However, the stout defensive play contributed to winning eleven games as well. Great odds were available for about half the season until everyone realized how good this team was. Once that happened, one could profit from fading Tennessee. A loss at Georgia was not shocking in the slightest, but CFP hopes remained. Then, a stunning loss at South Carolina meant a non playoff NY6 bowl was the best hope. Tennessee clobbered Clemson in the Orange Bowl to show that Josh Heupel’s offense can win with most quarterbacks. 2022 fell just short of every Vols fan’s wishes. But, things are looking up for this program.

2022 Grade: A-

Vanderbilt

Preseason Rating: 49

Final Rating: 60

Slowly but steadily Vanderbilt is improving. In an almost impossible position, Clark Lea got the most out of the Commodores this year. Sure, 5-7 is a losing record. But, reaching five wins was unthinkable before the year began. Thanks to a Week 0 game at Hawai’i and an FCS matchup with Elon, Vandy actually started 2-0. The schedule toughened from there. Another win against Northern Illinois helped get Vandy some needed confidence but an absurd slate against Alabama, Ole Miss, and Georgia back-to-back-to-back reminded Vanderbilt that they are mostly fodder for the big dogs. Still, play improved. The payoff was near the end of the year when upset victories over Kentucky and Florida made the year a relative success. Even a 56-0 defeat to Tennessee did little to ruin Lea’s excellent work. Vanderbilt will not be contending for the SEC East anytime soon. But, improved play and a few more upsets could lead to a bowl appearance in the not so distant future. 

2022 Grade: B+ 

Alabama

Preseason Rating: 96 

Final Rating: 92

Alabama teams are relatively simple to power rate. Mark the Tide within a field goal of 100 and be prepared to move them to a perfect score if they appear legitimately elite when the pieces seem in place, and move them below 95 when they are slightly worse. This season, Alabama returned a Heisman caliber quarterback and a Heisman caliber defensive end. Some shortcomings and losses elsewhere on the roster hinted at Alabama being just slightly worse than usual. A nail-biting last second win in Week 2 at Texas seemed to confirm this. Alabama was still an elite team of course, but they were just a tick under the level necessary for championships to come easily. A tough win against a down Texas A&M team was not reassuring. The following week, Alabama lost at Tennessee laying seven. Covering was only one or two plays away, but those are the plays which the truly elite Bama teams make; they did not this year. An overtime loss at LSU ended any true shot at reaching the CFP. So, the power rating hovered in the low 90s, putting Alabama still in the top four of best teams. For those paying attention, the short spread in the bowl was easy money. So, while Alabama was not a CFP participant or even an SEC West division winner, the 2022 Crimson Tide were still a very good football team. But in Tuscaloosa, that will never be enough.

2022 Grade: B+  

Arkansas

Preseason Rating: 77 

Final Rating: 75

Sam Pittman and Arkansas had big time expectations this season. Even contending in the SEC West was not totally out of the question. However, the defense let down the offense multiple times. Scoring against Arkansas was easier than anticipated and the Hogs lost multiple games in a row twice. A neutral site loss to Texas A&M got worse as the season progressed and a blowout defeat to Mississippi State really set Arkansas back. A win at a relatively down BYU righted the ship, albeit temporarily. Liberty stunned Arkansas and likely got Hugh Freeze his new job at Auburn. Meanwhile, Arkansas lost two of the next three to finish way down the SEC West standings. Betting this team was tough since their rating seesawed all year long despite floating around the preseason number. An overtime bowl win over Kansas somewhat saved the year, but Arkansas has probably not progressed as fast under Pittman as last year seemed to indicate. The Hogs will almost surely present several good underdog opportunities next season thanks to the return of experienced quarterback KJ Jefferson. So, look for the power rating to possibly increase before next year. Things might be looking up if the defense improves even slightly. 

2022 Grade: C

Auburn

Preseason Rating: 74 

Final Rating: 70.5

Auburn’s struggles this season were well known and widely discussed. An obvious need for a coaching change prevented the Tigers from ever reaching its potential. Besides, Auburn’s overall roster was generally short of typical standards on the Plains. Harsin was fired and Cadillac Williams reinvigorated the players to a point. Still, Auburn won against not a single quality opponent. Sure, Missouri reached a bowl but the win was early in the year. Texas A&M was very down this season and WKU is a CUSA team after all. So, Auburn’s power rating reached its realistic low. The Tigers would need to be spectacularly bad to go much lower. In other words, the season really could not have been much worse. Hugh Freeze has worked miracles before, let’s see if he can do it again. 

2022 Grade: F

LSU

Preseason Rating: 78.5 

Final Rating: 80

LSU entered this season with high expectations from some and with low expectations from others. After all, Brian Kelly had been at Notre Dame for a while. How would he perform with SEC talent up and down the roster? Well, things were entertaining from the start. The offense struggled in a wild Week 1 loss to Florida State in New Orleans. LSU outplayed FSU in nearly all aspects except on the scoreboard. Unfortunately for Kelly and LSU, scoring more than your opponent remains the main objective in football. So, right out of the gate people were claiming Kelly’s hire to be a failure. Once given a sufficient chance to settle in, Kelly turned the Tigers around. A blow out loss at home to a surging Tennessee team knocked LSU out of CFP contention, but an overtime win against Alabama late in the season essentially clinched a trip to Atlanta for the SEC Championship. The Tigers somehow were clobbered by Texas A&M in the regular season finale and then Georgia firmly put LSU in its place the next week. Kelly was able to get LSU close to elite status in year one, but that level is just so much higher. The difference between elite and very good is large. Right now, LSU is very good. Give Kelly time and a good quarterback, and LSU will be “back.” As far as this season went, it was a job well done.

2022 Grade: B 

Mississippi State

Preseason Rating: 81 

Final Rating: 78.5

A good season at Mississippi State ended with a nice bowl win over Illinois but was essentially ruined by the death of beloved head coach Mike Leach. Leach was a tremendous and creative mind that will be missed. Without him, college football is much less fun as the majority of coaches are simply robots who follow the herd. Leach was willing to think outside the box to gain advantages when his rosters were often nowhere close to that of his opponents. I truly believe that had Leach been given adequate time and enough SEC talent, he could have had Mississippi State contending for the SEC West yearly. Unfortunately, we will never know. You will be missed, coach. The bulldogs had no bad losses and only one win was closer than it should have been (a 39-33 overtime win against Auburn). Hopefully, new head coach Zach Arnett will be even a fraction as creative in his coaching as Leach was. Despite the drop in rating, Mississippi State had a wonderful season.

2022 Grade: B+ 

Ole Miss

Preseason Rating: 76

Final Rating:77

The Lane Train came to a screeching halt in 2022. A season with fairly large expectations did not go the way of Ole Miss. The Rebels were supposed to at least contend in the SEC West. For the most part, betting odds reflected Ole Miss as a solid top notch team, if not elite. Early season numbers were sizable but the competition was relatively weak. Kentucky nearly beat the Rebels in Oxford and provided a solid number of points for bettors looking to fade the vulnerable Ole Miss favorite. Still, the loss column remained vacant. Finally, a poor showing against LSU resulted in a defeat. Three straight losses followed a close win at Texas A&M, and a wildly poor showing in the Texas Bowl capped a downright awful second half of the season for Ole Miss. Rumors regarding Kiffin’s job status in terms of whether or not he was leaving for Auburn certainly did not help. In the end, Kiffin was honest and is staying put. This team is not the best bet in the SEC by any means. Big promises lead nowhere, but good showings against the big name teams give backers a chance if the price is right. Wait around long enough for Ole Miss to be getting points on a night they should be focused and you can get a solid bet. Otherwise, laying points on a Lane Kiffin team almost always results in a game you will need to sweat. Certainly Ole Miss never leaves you wanting entertainment, but they often leave you questioning how strong of a team they truly are. Perhaps no squad this year encapsulated “playing to their competition” more than Ole Miss. The rating moved a bunch during the season but ended up right around preseason expectations. Therefore, 2022 was not a failure for Lane Kiffin and his Rebels, but it could definitely have gone better. See how serious Ole Miss is about improving the defense by keeping an eye on staff changes and the roster this offseason. If this team gets its act together, they can contend with the best programs around. Otherise, mediocre bowl appearances and never reaching Atlanta will always be the ceiling of Ole Miss football.

2022 Grade: C

Texas A&M

Preseason Rating: 84.5

Final Rating: 71

Texas A&M failed miserably in 2022. This team’s games were rarely bettable. Some weeks the Aggies showed up just enough to lose in heartbreaking fashion, and other weeks A&M looked like it belonged in the Sun Belt Conference. Large numbers of transfer portal defections during the season derailed any progress made under Jimbo Fisher. His contract and buyout are both massive; how far are Aggie boosters willing to let this program go before getting frustrated enough to demand Fisher’s removal? We may see, but more likely, Texas A&M will rebound next year with a new roster full of players committed to the program. However, 2022 was a dumpster fire.

2022 Grade: F