2022 PAC-12 GRADES

 2022 PAC-12 GRADES

Arizona

Preseason Rating: 54.5

Final Rating: 63.5

Arizona clearly improved this season. The level was not certain initially, but generally obvious immediately when the Wildcats handily beat San Diego State on the road to open the year. The offense scored regularly in 2022 now that head coach Jedd Fisch possessed a competent quarterback in Washington State transfer Jayden de Laura. However, the defense went from terrible to not the best. Arizona will not contend in the PAC-12 until the defense gets to at least average. Still, five wins would have been an unthinkable amount before the year began. Avoiding regular blow outs is an important first step in building a program that has been in the basement. Fisch accomplished that this season. Arizona had only one truly surprising win (34-28 at UCLA), but none of its seven losses were to bad teams besides Cal. A nine point rating increase is a sizable change. Perhaps Fisch is building something in Tucson. Time will tell.

2022 Grade: B+

Arizona State

Preseason Rating: 63.5

Final Rating: 63

Early season coaching changes always mean things were going far worse than planned. Usually, those changes come for programs on hard times that are nowhere near their typical level of play. Arizona State was expected to be a mass by many who read between the lines before the year began. Still, the program is generally a decent one even at its worst. However, heavy roster changes and reports of coaching apathy were out there all off-season. Things did not look great for the Sun Devils coming into 2022. Herm Edwards was fired after a humiliating home loss to Eastern Michigan. Things got worse from there. ASU only won two conference games. Although, one was an upset of Washington so that was at least some positive result. The other was against a truly terrible Colorado team. A season finale loss to instate rival Arizona put a stamp on the failure that was 2022 Arizona State football. Tough days are ahead in the desert. 

2022 Grade: F

California

Preseason Rating: 62.5 

Final Rating: 62

Cal struggled a lot in many respects this past season. The offense was never reliable despite fielding a decent defense. The administration has given head coach Justin Wilcox a ton of leeway with his team. The Bears went nowhere yet again this season. The Bears had a chance at starting 3-0 but coughed up late opportunities to upset Notre Dame in Week 3. Still, things were looking okay and the power rating was going up. Cal was a decent bet if only their offense could move the ball just a little bit and an outside shot at a bowl was not unreasonable. That position was shattered after a solid win against Arizona. Following the 3-1 start, Cal went on a six game losing streak and dropped seven of their last eight. The losing streak included an overtime road loss to horrid Colorado and the only win came against down and out Stanford. The Bears were a tough team to bet in 2022 and likely will be again next year. Still, expectations were very low for this team. So, all things considered, 2022 ended up being a bad year featuring some hopeful moments. 

2022 Grade: C

Colorado

Preseason Rating: 53.5 

Final Rating: 43.5

No Power 5 team was as bad in 2022 as the Colorado Buffaloes. The coach was fired midseason when the level of embarrassing performance reached wide ranging recognition in the college football world. Saying Colorado was terrible would be putting it nicely. Sure, all three of the Buffaloes non-conference opponents reached a bowl, but none of those games were remotely close. Every loss was a blowout except one and the only victory came at home in overtime against a very bad Cal squad. Colorado needs a total overhaul and perhaps Deion Sanders is the man to do it. We will see. For now, while Colorado was not expected to be good, 2022 could not have gone much worse. The Buffs were an automatic fade for most of the season. 

2022 Grade: F  

Oregon

Preseason Rating: 77.5 

Final Rating: 79.5

Oregon possibly cemented its place near the top of what will eventually be a new look PAC-12. Yes, the Ducks have been one of the conference’s premier teams ever since the Chip Kelly days. But, Mario Cristobal’s departure mixed with improving PAC-12 programs could have shot Oregon down a peg or two. However, first year head coach Dan Lanning managed to keep Oregon in the national conversation for most of the season and actually improved the power number from the beginning of the year. Bo Nix made this team consistently bettable despite his often inaccurate arm. He returns next season. A blowout Week 1 loss to Lanning’s former employer was the only true blemish on the season. Other losses were by only three and four points. Still, a trip to the PAC-12 Championship did not happen, a massive choke at rival Oregon State was beyond frustrating, and a nail biting one point victory in the bowl over North Carolina should not have been so close. But, things are looking good even as other PAC-12 programs are on the rise. The eventual departures of USC and UCLA to the Big Ten in 2024 should help the Ducks in terms of PAC-12 domination. Time will tell. For now, 2022 went extremely well for a team with a new coach. A few upsets were allowed, but nothing that was completely unpredictable or shocking.

2022 Grade: B+

Oregon State

Preseason Rating: 68 

Final Rating: 78.5

Jonathan Smith has turned Oregon State into a regular bowl participating program capable of pulling off several upsets a year. A strong running game is a bettors dream and the Beavers fit that role all year long. A sweep of the non-conference slate and a near loss against USC set the table for a great season. The only bad loss was at a really good Utah team who beat the Beavers at their own game. This team was bettable any time they were getting points. That was even more so the case against rival Oregon. A wild comeback and goal line stand ended their year in exciting fashion and the bowl domination of a Florida team decimated by injuries showed that the Beavers have legitimate talent. Watch out for this program in the next few years. 

2022 Grade: A

Stanford

Preseason Rating: 67.5 

Final Rating: 58.5

Once proud Stanford is now the dregs of Power 5 football. The Cardinal do not resemble a program who regularly played later bowl games and often won the Rose Bowl. David Shaw somehow lost whatever it was he had when able to recruit the talent he did at the start of his tenure. The coach was let go after another poor year showed no signs of potential wins in future years. A shocking win at Notre Dame and a one point win over Arizona State were the only victories over FBS competition. Nearly every loss was by more than one score and not as close as that. The talent level on the Farm sure is down, but perhaps Shaw’s coaching philosophy and strategic thinking has been passed by in the current game. The Cardinal were a tough team to bet this season and it was difficult to catch them when they were a solid wager. They were simply too tough to figure out beyond figuring that they were not good. Looking forward, Shaw’s departure is the end of an era that was mostly positive. However, that positivity feel so long ago that it practically never happened. A new coach from the FCS level could reenergize Stanford. Plus, UCLA and USC leaving the Big Ten opens up the conference for increased competition from the bottom up. Where will Stanford be? We shall see.

2022 Grade: D-

UCLA

Preseason Rating: 75.5 

Final Rating: 74

Teams led by established coaches for more than one or two contracts eventually hover towards a range of performance level generally predictable. UCLA and Chip Kelly fit that description. The Bruins entered 2022 with their most experienced and most talented skill players in quite some time. Yet, my own power ratings predicted UCLA would perform to a level which implies being 24.5 points worse than a mythical perfect 100. The Bruins played to this level nearly all season. Points came in droves early and often, wins came, and the Bruins climbed the polls. CFP hopes sprung into existence. Beating Utah as a home underdog was the best bet on UCLA possibly all season. The win elevated UCLA to getting national attention. Following a bye,  a road loss at Oregon put pressure on UCLA, but a PAC-12 Championship remained in sight. The defense struggled more as the schedule got tougher and UCLA fall prey as a big favorite at home against an improved Arizona team during a look ahead week to USC. The whole time, UCLA’s number remained within a couple points of its typical rating. Losing to a Pitt team decimated by opt outs cemented the level at which Chip Kelly can get this program. Therefore, 2022 was no failure for UCLA, but it could have gone just slightly better. 

2022 Grade: C+

USC

Preseason Rating: 83 

Final Rating: 83.5

Lincoln Riley immediately brought CFP potential to LA. Numerous Oklahoma players followed through the transfer portal and Jordan Addison left Pitt to become a Trojan. Obviously Caleb Williams was the biggest change to the roster. What does so much change in one offseason mean? A large adjustment to a team’s power rating! Perhaps no single team moved so much from last season’s final number to this year’s preseason rating. USC is a high level program but last year was a new low. Now, they were getting a habitual CFP participating coach and numerous drastic roster improvements. USC performed well all season long. The only losses were to Utah in games the Trojans led by double digits. Neither of those losses were at home. Plus, the bigger loss in the PAC-12 Championship easily could have been closer had Williams not been hurt. A stunning choke loss in the Cotton Bowl capped the season in disappointment. A trip to the CFP and then a NY6 bowl win were both so close. Expect this team’s power rating to only climb in its final PAC-12 season.

2022 Grade: A- 

Utah

Preseason Rating: 86.5

Final Rating: 83

The PAC-12 has numerous teams that play to a close range of performance. Utah is certainly one of them. Kyle Whittingham has been the head coach at Utah for some time and gets a lot out of his teams. Utah has a tremendous home field advantage and plays a general style of football that makes them an excellent favorite to back in many circumstances. Having an experienced quarterback helps too. Prognosticators from all over the country predicted Utah would make the CFP. That did not come to pass once Utah suffered its second defeat of the year on the road as a favorite against UCLA. The loss hurt, but Utah continued playing to its level in the games that followed. A PAC-12 Championship made the season a success and two wins over USC made it memorable. Another trip to the Rose Bowl did not hurt either. While CFP expectations fell short, and the Rose Bowl went worse than expected, Utah remains a solid team to back and one of the few consistent big favorites to bet.

2022 Grade: B+

Washington

Preseason Rating: 68

Final Rating: 80

Wasihngton is one of several examples this year of how significantly a team can improve when it has a solid coach. Kalen DeBoer and Michael Penix Jr. improved the Huskies immediately. Washington improved almost two touchdowns from the start of the season to the finish. Two one score road losses back to back were the only defeats of the season. Washington was a solid wager all season and often was getting a number of points that were outlandish. A great win in the Alamo Bowl over Texas and the return of Penix Jr sets Washington up to contend for a PAC-12 Championship next year. Watch for this team’s rating to enter CFP contending territory next season. 

2022 Grade: A

Washington State

Preseason Rating: 60

Final Rating: 70.5

Jake Dickert raised Washington’s power rating by over ten points from preseason expectations. Sure, the preseason number was obviously far too low. However, the point stands that Wazzu was expected to be a level or two below what had become expected in Pullman. But, Dickert used the talented FCS transfer quarterback Cam Ward to be good just enough to be reliable. An upset win at Wisconsin all but got Paul Chryst fired and a near upset of Oregon would have had the Cougars feeling like a PAC-12 championship was possible. Perhaps most surprising, the defense really improved a lot this season. Gone are the days of Washington State needing to score 50+ to have a comfortable win. Overall, no losses to inferior opponents came about. Every defeat came at the hands of a bowl team, including the bowl loss to Mountain West champion Fresno State. The bowl was quite disappointing but getting there mattered more than the actual game itself. While Wazzu is not at the top end of the conference, it easily could reach that territory within three years. If 9-4 is a down year for Washington State the program is in a great place.

2022 Grade: B