2022 Mountain West Season Grades

Air Force 

Preseason Rating: 73.5

Final Rating: 71.5

Prior to the season, I truly believed Air Force had a chance at going unbeaten. Haaziq Daniels is an experienced quarterback who could be trusted running the potent triple option rushing attack; Troy Calhoun is a fantastic coach who has competed in a higher end Group of Five conference; and the schedule was set up relatively well enough. However, three close conference losses against tough defenses prevented a season for the books. Still, 2022 was an excellent season for Air Force. Perhaps no team (excepting maybe Utah) was as reliable as a large favorite due to an ability to control the clock and rack up rushing yards like very few other G5 teams can do. Air Force never lost by more than a touchdown although the loss at Utah State was not really as competitive as the seven point margin seems. Honestly, the two point drop is power rating over the course of the season is probably wrong. The losses were close enough and were against quality programs. Realistically, those teams are probably higher than their own ratings are. Air Force dominated against Baylor in the bowl game. However, star quarterback Haaziq Daniels is done at the school and will need to be replaced. Let’s see if Calhoun deals with losing such a star better than Army and Navy have in recent seasons. 

2022 Grade: A-

Boise State

Preseason Rating: 64.5 

Final Rating: 67.5

Boise State is no longer a regular contender for the best Group of 5 spot. The Broncos have worsened nearly every season since Chris Peterson departed long ago. Still, the program contends for the Mountain West crown yearly. Double digit wins were reached in 2022 and a stellar defense helped notch multiple impressive road wins. So, this was the better of Andy Avalos’ two years so far. But, a demonstrative loss at Oregon State, a surprise upset loss at UTEP, and failing to win the Mountain West Championship made 2022 feel much worse than it really was. Sure, Boise State is no longer in the elite of G5, but they are still capable of flirting with the top 25 if they can knock off a P5. This team was solid to bet at times but also a great fade when overvalued. 

2022 Grade: B+

Colorado State

Preseason Rating: 54.5 

Final Rating: 46

Colorado State was abysmal in Jay Norvell’s first season in Fort Collins. The Rams failed to notch a single good win, were regularly blown out, and reached 20 points in a game exactly zero times. At no point in the season was betting on Colorado State advisable. Norvell needs to recruit the way he did in his last few seasons in Reno if he has any chance to win at Colorado State.

2022 Grade: F

New Mexico

Preseason Rating: 47 

Final Rating: 41

Much like Colorado State, New Mexico was downright terrible in 2022. The Lobos lost nine straight to end the season. The offense never got going and failed to score at all five times, being shutout twice. Unfortunately a solid defense was entirely wasted; New Mexico rarely gave up tons of points and likely would have allowed fewer had the offense been more potent. Solid spreads appeared for New Mexico a few times when matched up with other bad offenses, but this was rare and only the most adroit bettors found these limited chances. The offense drastically needs to be redone for this program to improve at all. Still, not much was expected.

2022 Grade: D

Utah State

Preseason Rating: 59.5 

Final Rating: 56

Apparently, Utah State dropped quite a bit in terms of performance during the offseason. The Aggies had a fantastic 2021; they won the Mountain West and beat PAC-12 member Oregon State in their bowl game. This year started off with a scare against a UConn team that nobody knew would be vastly improved followed by four losses including a humiliating blowout defeat against FCS Weber State. Things began to improve with a home win against Air Force. However, no other quality wins followed. Reaching a bowl seemed undeserving, but six wins gets you there in nearly all circumstances. Memphis dominated the bowl game. 2022 seemed to be a very down year for USU. This team was difficult to bet all season and the power rating showed it. Dropping a field goal over the course of a season is not the worst drop ever, but it demonstrates that this program might need a drastic change to recapture the level at which it played in 2021. Fewer road games against good teams next year might help.

2022 Grade: C-

Wyoming

Preseason Rating: 52.5

Final Rating: 56.5

Craig Bohl does a terrific job in Laramie. Recruiting presents a multitude of challenges at Wyoming, but the Cowboys are competitive almost yearly. Bowl appearances are regular enough compared with schools of similar stature. Yet, Wyoming often seems to flirt with more success that is unattainable. For instance, great expectations in 2021 failed to result; the season was a mess. So, things were not expected to be much improved in 2022. Yet, Wyoming found itself with six wins and in a bowl game. The Cowboys are built on their defense and Bohl does a great job at making games messy for better opponents, particularly at home. Thus, Wyoming is often a nice underdog to bet. Against Boise State, Wyoming had a shot at clinching the Mountain Division late in the game. The opportunity fell through their hands thanks to some wild plays, but the overall level of play was there. A bowl loss in overtime leaves a sour taste in Wyoming’s mouth. Still, reaching bowl eligibility and competing in the Mountain West are considered successes at this school.

2022 Grade: B

Fresno

Preseason Rating: 71.5

Final Rating: 71.5

Fresno State’s season simply boils down to Jake Haener’s health. The Bulldogs played very well when Haener was available at full strength, and they played fairly poorly when Haener did not suit up or was not 100%. A four game losing streak following a win against FCS Cal Poly were the only losses on the season. Fresno reached double digit wins despite losing coach Kalen DeBoer to Washington. But, the transition to DeBoer’s replacement was as smooth as getting a new coach could be; longtime Fresno head coach Jeff Tedford returned to the team out of retirement. So, all things considered, Fresno was in solid shape. A resounding road win at Boise for the Mountain West Championship and an easy bowl win over Washington State sealed the deal on 2022 being a massive success. This program is one of the very few in college football, especially at the G5 level, that can keep a consistent power rating, whether higher or lower, despite a coaching change. This program is as solid as they come. Watch for some regression with the loss of Haener in 2023.

2022 Grade: A- 

Hawai’i

Preseason Rating: 48.5 

Final Rating: 46

A tumultuous offseason created wildly low expectations for 2022 on the islands. Hawai’i relieved Todd Graham of his duties for numerous reasons. In came one of the best players in school history to take over: Timmy Chang. Chang’s work was cut out for him. A depleted roster put the Rainbow Warriors at an extreme disadvantage. Poor results were expected. Games were ugly but things improved. At times, Hawai’i appeared worse than many FCS teams. Surely, a full Mountain West slate would decimate this squad; and it did for most of the year. Hawai’i became an automatic blind fade for a while, but improvement occurred late in the year. Still, this team was terrible. No good wins and many embarrassing losses is not the way to start a tenure. Some competitive outings against decent competition would have at least provided some sort of sign that Chang might be a solid hire. Perhaps he will make drastic improvement during the offseason. For now, Hawai’i is near the basement of FBS.

2022 Grade: D

Nevada

Preseason Rating: 48.5 

Final Rating: 44.5

Nevada joined the group of teams in the Mountain West who had utterly horrid seasons. Nevada, like Hawai’i lost its coach during the offseason; Jay Norvell made the rare move of taking another head coaching position in the same conference at Colorado State. The Wolf Pack are not the best program in general and frankly the last few years were decent due mainly to the combination of the excellent Carson Strong and star receiver Romeo Doubs. Without those two, this team would struggle to score enough to be competitive. Surely enough, that was the case. Thus, Ken Wilson had a tough go of it in year one. Nevada started 2-0 against two abysmal teams in New Mexico State and Texas State. Yes, New Mexico State would go on to win a bowl, but at the point of Week 1, the Aggies were not remotely close to playing at the level at which they would be near the end of the season. Still, Nevada had a couple of wins to start the year. The Pack would not win again. A loss to FCS Incarnate Word hastened Nevada’s poor strength, and things got worse from there. A handful of close losses only served to frustrate and Nevada struggled to compete weekly. Sure, it was only year one for Ken Wilson, but it could have gone just slightly better than it did. Therefore, in no way was 2022 successful in Reno.

2022 Grade: D

San Diego State

Preseason Rating: 64.5 

Final Rating: 63

San Diego State generally floats around a sure range of performance. This season, the offense lacked any real threat at quarterback, but that is often the case for the Aztecs. Laying points is possibly more frustrating with San Diego State than with any other team in the country. The Aztecs often underperform when favored and struggle to move the ball against competent defenses. Low scoring makes it tough to cover if favored, and San Diego State found it difficult to score on even the worst opponents; sixteen was all it could muster against lowly Hawai’i. However, no bad losses befell San Diego State until blowing a double digit lead in the bowl loss. In fact, San Diego State lost its bowl game despite allowing negative rush yards in the game. That is when it becomes glaringly obvious the offense is the problem. Still, a bowl was reached despite the season being slightly below standard.

2022 Grade: C

San Jose State

Preseason Rating: 61  

Final Rating: 61

Coaches generally establish a level of performance once at a school for a while. San Jose State and Brent Brennan are no exception. The Spartans are at the point where bowl eligibility is relatively expected, but San Jose State does not expect much more than that. It is fair. None of the Spartans losses were bad except for maybe blowing a 13-0 lead in the bowl game. Other than that, San Jose State was a rather complete team who handled teams inferior to them and competed with teams superior to them. This is a well coached program and met expectations for the season.

2022 Grade: B

UNLV

Preseason Rating: 47 

Final Rating: 53.5

UNLV is a very tough program at which to win; the Rebels have only been to two bowl games this century! So, generally the leash is pretty long on head coaches. UNLV appeared on the right track early this season. Starting 4-1 and competing with a P5 opponent is usually a solid sign of significant improvement. However, losing six straight prevented the Rebels from reaching bowl eligibility for the eighth consecutive season. An embarrassing loss to Hawai’i was the last straw for head coach Marcus Arroyo. The school will now be led by Barry Odom. While UNLV got off to a good start and fared well against good teams, like losing to MW Champion Fresno State by only 7, the season can not be considered a success by any means. At least, the Rebels played better than expected coming into the season. 

2022 Grade: C-