2022 Big XII Grades

2022 BIG XII GRADES

Baylor

Preseason Rating: 77

Final Rating: 75.5

Repeating as Big 12 Champions was not out of the question for Baylor before the season began. Dave Aranda is a wonderful coach and always puts together tough defenses needed to win conference championships. Losing experience at quarterback was a negative but Baylor’s offense functions well even with less than stellar passers. Even a tough overtime loss at BYU early in the schedule did not impact the Big 12 standings. However, back to back October conference losses to Oklahoma State and at West Virginia presented a reality much less exciting for 2022, especially the West Virginia loss. So, this season may seem as though it was disappointing when looking at results from afar. However, all things considered, Baylor’s season met what expectations should have been for a team losing an experienced quarterback and facing a tougher slate than last year. Baylor had tougher road games in 2021 and honestly benefitted from lots of close results last season. This year, Baylor lost those close games and the Big 12 seemed to be better even with Oklahoma being down. Four straight defeats to end the year leaves a sour taste in the mouth of supporters in Waco, but Baylor’s floor under Aranda is much higher than it used to be. A bowl game was reached, Oklahoma was beaten; only one loss was a blowout. All in all, Aranda is doing a good job and the lower rating at year’s end is what Baylor’s number should have been from the beginning. 

2022 Grade: B+ 

Iowa State

Preseason Rating: 78

Final Rating: 73

Every year some teams perform well and beat the spread enough to make it worth following. Iowa State did not cover too much this season but occasionally offered great value. The Cyclones were only blown out once and it was against CFP participant TCU. Matt Campbell is a really good coach and usually has a solid defense. This season was no exception. Losing perhaps the best quarterback-running back duo in school history had something to do with the lack of wins this season. Three non-conference wins (including beating Iowa for the first time in seven seasons) set up hopes for not dropping off. However, only one victory remained as six losses by one score or less will have fans thinking what could have been. Much like some other teams, Iowa State being disappointed with their season is a good thing insofar as it means that program expectations are now higher than ever before. A high floor is a good thing. Iowa State’s defense was good and the offense will only improve as experience comes. The number of losses was disappointing for sure, but Iowa State is not as bad as your typical 4-8 team. 

2022 Grade: C

Kansas

Preseason Rating: 59 

Final Rating: 68

Those who follow college football intently knew all about how good of a coach Lance Leipold is and that Kansas would likely improve under him. However, even those folks likely did not anticipate the rapidity of the improvement. The Jayhawks got to 5-0 and even hosted ESPN’s College Gameday for the first time. The defense still lagged behind the offense though, and sure enough, losses came when the competition stiffened and the offense had trouble moving the ball. Kansas lost six of seven to end the regular season and had a bit of a lucky comeback that came up just short against Arkansas in the bowl. Still, even getting to a bowl was huge leap forward in Lawrence. Leipold signed an extension and will have even more time to improve this team. Despite the great year, Kansas still remains at the bottom of the conference. Incoming members will be welcomed and should loosen the schedule just enough to keep Kansas hovering around bowl eligibility or better. The chance to bet this team regularly likely will not dry up overnight. However, Kansas’ power rating increased quite a bit and still has some room left to climb. 

2022 Grade: A

Kansas State

Preseason Rating: 71.5

Final Rating: 79.5

Kansas State quietly had one of the best seasons in college football. That can happen when a team wins lots of games but suffers multiple defeats or one particularly upsetting loss early enough in the season to be firmly out of CFP contention. The Wildcats did just that this season. An early season home loss to Tulane essentially eliminated K-State from ever being seriously considered for the CFP. Not that that loss was what did it; Kansas State was never going to be in the running unless they had a season like TCU. But still, the loss was embarrassing for a Big 12 member. Only two more losses occurred and somehow a Big 12 Championship game appearance was the result. Every loss Kansas State had was to a team who played in a bowl game; two were against teams that played in a NY6, including a CFP; and they avenged the TCU loss in the conference championship. A Sugar Bowl loss to Alabama was nothing of which to be ashamed. Kansas State was a tremendous underdog bet all season. Their style surely lends to making games messy and close when playing against more talented teams. However, there is a limit. After all, Alabama thoroughly demolished K-State after a quick Wildcat start. Still, Chris Klieman improved this squad over a touchdown from the start of the season to the end. The loss of Deuce Vaughn to the NFL will hurt a lot. However, Klieman’s style won numerous championships at the FCS level. Do not expect too far a drop from this team.

2022 Grade: A

Oklahoma

Preseason Rating: 81.5

Final Rating: 78

First years with new head coaches are almost always tough. Oklahoma has not had many coaches in the 21st century (only two before Brent Vanables). However, Venables was an accomplished defensive coordinator who had worked at Oklahoma as a defensive coordinator, among other positions. Yet, Venables struggled in year one. Oklahoma A solid start against lesser competition, including a road win blowout of old rival Nebraska, had fans and bettors thinking the more things change the more they stay the same. After all, OU had a solid quarterback and was scoring points. Even the defense looked legitimate! Then conference play began and a three game losing streak capped off by a humiliating 49-0 loss to arch-rival Texas had everyone questioning how much Lincoln Riley really had taken with him to USC. The Sooners were demonstrably out of the CFP and likely the Big 12 race. Four subsequent losses by three points each has Sooner fans wondering how close this team really is to being right back in the thick of things. Venables has the resources to recruit top talent to Norman. That is a big reason why the Sooners’ rating really did not fall all that much over the course of a disappointing season. Sure, this program is used to being in the CFP race all the way to the end of the regular season. But, year one of a new coach resulting in a three point bowl loss is nothing to scoff at. Things will get better. Yes, 2022 could have gone much better for Oklahoma, but it really could have been much worse.

2022 Grade: C

Oklahoma State

Preseason Rating: 73.5

Final Rating: 71

2022 frustrated no team possibly more than Oklahoma State. The Cowboys had all the pieces to make a solid run. Even a double overtime loss on the road at TCU could not end OK State’s CFP hopes. Although, blowing a double digits lead in the second half on the road surely left a bad taste in their mouths. Nevertheless, a solid win over Texas seemed to put OK State right back on track. It was only the next week when injuries and the first shutout loss in a very long time end all hope. Kansas fully crushed Oklahoma State 48-0. The season somewhat spiraled from there. Star quarterback Spencer Sanders was never 100% and often did not play. Loss after loss ruined a nice win-loss record and a mediocre bowl would end the year. Oklahoma State was dependable in terms of form. When they were good, they were good; and when they were bad, they were bad. The rating hovered around the program’s low end. Sanders departs but Mike Gundy seems to get this team right back following poor seasons. Hey, if a bad season still includes a bowl game, you are in a good position. 

2022 Grade: B-

TCU

Preseason Rating: 68

Final Rating: 

Will Be updated following the National Championship.

Texas

Preseason Rating: 75.5

Final Rating: 79

Texas used a talented roster to get to eight wins. A close loss to Alabama in Week 2 had bettors adjusting their assessments of Texas up for 2022. However, their power rating would top out around that time as Texas lost as seven point favorites only two weeks later to Texas Tech on the road. A drubbing of rival Oklahoma made everything better a few weeks later and the Big 12 race was in question for a while down the home stretch. A trip to Arlington eluded the Horns after losing to TCU at home late in the season. However, none of Texas’s losses were by more than seven points. Therefore, Texas was truly only a handful of plays away from honestly making the CFP. Sure, Texas was not of that caliber, which is, in part, why they lost those close games. But still, this team was no joke. The bowl loss was disappointing and may have gone better if not for opt outs. However, the future appears bright in Austin as new recruits arrive. Expect Texas’s ratings to rise in the future if Arch Manning turns out to be the real deal. Texas could easily make a CFP with the resources it has, so long as smart decisions are made at the right times. Now that is something which has been absent at Texas for quite some time.

2022 Grade: B

Texas Tech

Preseason Rating: 61

Final Rating: 74.5

Texas Tech in 2022 continued its recent trend of surprising as an underdog in spots where they could easily be dominated by a favored opponent. A comeback upset victory over Texas early in the season as seven point underdogs was the best win in the first half of the schedule. Some disappointing losses mixed in, but those were typically to other favored opponents. A strong end to the year in head coach Joey McGuire’s first season guaranteed a bowl appearance. Unsurprisingly, the Red Raiders controlled the bowl against Ole Miss from start to finish. Of course, Tech was an underdog in the game. Betting opportunities arose time and time again but were very tough to spot beforehand. Tech’s power rating steadily rose over the course of the season; that is a great sign of legitimate program improvement, especially when it increases by nearly two touchdowns start to finish! McGuire might have a solid team on his hands next year. Surely waiting for the perfect chance to back Texas Tech as an underdog will come around several times a season. You just need to be on the lookout and ready to pounce when it arrives. Overall, a first year coach winning eight games, including a bowl over an SEC opponent, is a solid start.

2022 Grade: A-

West Virginia

Preseason Rating: 67

Final Rating:70

A team can improve its rating throughout a season even when they are not winning many games. West Virginia accomplished just that in 2022 starting almost immediately with a close cover in the Backyard Brawl against Pitt in Week 1. Sure, the Mountaineers could have won the game if not for some late game mistakes, but they held their own nevertheless. However, a Week 2 home overtime loss to Kansas drastically lowered those same expectations. West Virginia should rarely lose at home to a middling Big 12 opponent even though Kansas turned out to be much better than most envisioned. From there, blowout losses became more common and the upset wins West Virginia notched were all close. Therefore, the rating went up slightly but betting WVU required getting points. Otherwise, it was best to stay far away from this team. JT Daniels was wasted talent in his one year in Morgantown and Neal Brown will need to reach a bowl at the very least next season to stay as head coach.  Expectations are not being met as the Big 12 adds new members. Texas’ and Oklahoma’s departure for the SEC should help WVU, but how much? The remaining teams and new members are hardly pushovers. This program is surely one to watch. 

2022 Grade: C+