2022 Big Ten Grades

2022 B1G GRADES 

Indiana

Preseason Rating: 64

Final Rating: 58.5

Indiana won its first three games of the season including beating Illinois by a field goal. Things were looking up but bettors knew those three victories belied the Hoosiers’s true strength. Indiana allowed lots of point to FCS Idaho and should have lost at home to Western Kentucky. Sure, the Tops had a great year and are a quality G5 team, but a Big Ten team should never struggle to get by a CUSA squad. Little offense and no defense are a terrible combination in any conference, nevermind the Big Ten East! Indiana was never a threat after those three wins until a double overtime win over a fading Michigan State late in the season. Indiana played its best most of the year; that best just was no match for a really tough schedule. Tom Allen is a decent coach but recruiting to Bloomington has proven difficult. Plus, the aforementioned division makes winning all the more harder. The really good seasons a few years ago are already a distant memory. Unless Allen is able to coax a talented passer near the level of Michael Penix into joining the Hoosiers, expect Indiana to remain in the Big Ten basement with the likes of Rutgers. 

2022 Grade: C- 

Maryland

Preseason Rating: 69

Final Rating: 72

Maryland football has somewhat stabilized under head coach Mike Locksley. The Terps are making bowl games and winning the games they should. Even some of the games against the top end Big Ten teams are not the regular blow outs that they used to be. That is a solid improvement. The Terps played almost exactly to preseason expectations this season and were a good bet at various times throughout the season. This team is a good favorite against terrible teams and teams from the lower half of the G5 conferences. Maryland played just well enough as an underdog to cover against both Michigan and Ohio State. Plus, the season ended with a nice bowl win despite numerous Terps opting out. In total, Maryland improved by a field goal. THat is slow but steady progress. You really cannot ask for much more out of a Big Ten East team. 

2022 Grade: B+

Michigan

Preseason Rating: 84

Final Rating: 89.5

Michigan had a successful season in 2022 despite the colossal failure of a loss in the CFP semi-final. Michigan quite possibly has taken the title of best program in the Big Ten away from Ohio State. The Wolverines not only went undefeated but also clobbered the Buckeyes in Columbus. Only several years ago this feat would have been unthinkable. However, Jim Harbaugh’s team is built to run the ball by controlling the line of scrimmage and bullying teams until the outcome of any particular game is decided well before the final whistle. Michigan was sufficiently reliable as a large favorite in 2022. Do not expect that to change. The Fiesta Bowl loss to TCU is not as alarming as many in the media are making it out to be. First off, Michigan could have won the game even with the countless crucial mistakes made. Yes, truly elite football teams do not make that many mistakes. However, a good number of them were more atypical occurrences than actual mistakes. All of these plays came together in one game to prevent a Michigan victory. Still, the Wolverines had a last minute opportunity to prevail. So, going forward, do not expect Michigan to fade back to playing second fiddle in the Big Ten. Sure, things could have ended better. But, 2022 was still a solid year for Michigan. They are now comfortably in the elite level of college football. 

2022 Grade: A

Michigan State

Preseason Rating: 73.5

Final Rating: 68

Michigan State was possibly the most overrated football team in 2021. The Spartans had a great start and catapulted up the traditional rankings, but sharp bettors saw impending doom lurking in the home stretch. 2022 was expected to be a down season in East Lansing, but the loss of Kenneth Walker made it much worse. The Spartans were a level or two below the competition in the Big Ten East; blowout losses to Ohio State and rival Michigan firmly put Sparty in its place. A bowl was not reached and the power rating dropped below 70 well before the end of the year. Michigan State may really regret the contract it gave to Mel Tucker. The coach is locked in for a long term and likely has a massive buyout. Sure, the new era of NIL can alter programs' short term trajectories overnight, but Tucker needs a massive upgrade to consistently compete with habitual CFP contenders like Michigan and Ohio State. While expectations were lower (maybe they were?) heading into this season than last, Michigan State disappointed and played near its floor in terms of power. 

2022 Grade: D+ 

Ohio State

Preseason Rating: 94.5

Final Rating: 95.5

The offseason will be extra long this year in Columbus. Ohio State was undefeated heading into the Game against Michigan. Revenge was on the mind of all Ohio State fans with this year’s edition being a home game. However, Ohio State failed to fully capitalize on numerous scoring chances early in the game and allowed Michigan to stay close until the second half when the Wolverines dominated. The loss shocked Ohio State but a CFP spot was clinched the following weekend when USC lost the PAC-12 Championship. So, the Buckeyes remained a legitimate elite team while backing into the Peach Bowl. This program is strong and should not fade from elite status for the foreseeable future. The offense was stellar most of the season but games were tough to bet as Ohio State was often a double digit favorite against what was still Big Ten competition. Finally, Ohio State got points in the CFP against Georgia. A full touchdown was generous to say the least and bettors piled on as kickoff approached. Any time Ohio State is an underdog, take the points. Power ratings for Ohio State will stay high until a significant change in the program. A national championship is the annual goal in Columbus, but anything can happen in the playoff. 

2022 Grade: B+

Penn State

Preseason Rating: 77

Final Rating: 83.5

What a year in State College! There are few teams that impressed me more this season than Penn State. Only two losses (to CFP participants Ohio State and Michigan) blemished the win - loss record. Penn State regularly blew out overmatched teams which made it somewhat difficult to get a proper number on them. James Franklin is a very good coach who might find himself in the CFP at some point if he can get back to the Big Ten Championship, or when the playoffs expand. Having an experienced quarterback can only help a team improve,even when that quarterback is not the most talented. To be clear, Sean Clifford is a good passer, but he is not the cream of the crop. A really solid defense helped this team blow out lots of opponents. However, the Lions were gouged for yards against Ohio State and Michigan. Still, this program is one or two solid recruiting classes or transfer portal acquisitions from reaching a new ceiling in the 90s. Michigan accomplished that feat the last two seasons, so do not assume Penn State is not also capable. This team provided plenty of great opportunities to bet on them this past season. I anticipate that being the case going forward. Just keep an eye on who Franklin gets to replace Clifford next year. 

2022 Grade: A-

Rutgers

Preseason Rating: 56.5

Final Rating: 56.5

Cutting to the chase is probably the best when evaluating a program like Rutgers. The Scarlet Knights need massive change somewhere if they ever want to consistently appear in bowls and escape the basement of the Big Ten. Greg Schiano has done admirably in his second stint in Piscataway, but there is only so much he and his staff can do with limited resources and recruiting. The competition in the Big Ten East is as tough as anywhere, save the SEC West (and maybe East). Conference schedules are going to never be easy. Therefore, Rutgers must win as many non conference games as possible if six wins is realistic. Rutgers did exactly that this year by beating a down Boston College team, FCS Wagner, and sneaking by Temple on the road. Yet, Indiana was the only team left Rutgers would beat. A crossover game with Iowa was brutal when Rutgers would have gotten a down Northwestern team in another season. Even that might not have gotten Rutgers to five wins. Nebraska won in Piscataway by just one point, but the Huskers were a total mess at the point in the season. Schiano will need one great recruit he can somehow protect from the portal to ever have a shot at six or seven wins. Until that happens, all he can do is meet low expectations with what he has. 

2022 Grade: B

Illinois

Preseason Rating: 66

Final Rating: 76.5

Bret Bielema’s coaching in 2022 demonstrated more than maybe any coach, excepting Jim Mora, the difference competence and attitude makes in a team’s performance. Illinois went from Big Ten doormat to in contention for the oft-maligned West division. The Illini really should have defeated Michigan on the road late in the year. But, they easily covered the spread. Illinois’s rating climbed all year except for a few blips. Injury problems mainly caused some of the losses, but the offense needs a legitimate quarterback if Illinois is to make the leap into the level Wisconsin was in when Bielema walked the sideline in Madison. Watch out for this program. Teams that play solid defense and can run the ball effectively are often excellent underdogs to back and show consistent profits. Illinois might be nearing its ceiling or even making a new one. 

2022 Grade: B+

Iowa

Preseason Rating: 78

Final Rating: 75

No team in 2022 would have benefited from possessing even just a mediocre offense more than the Iowa Hawkeyes. There is no need to dwell on the miserly statistics showing how poor Iowa’s ability was to move the ball efficiently. It has been well documented across platforms. However, what gets lost in the noise is how good their defense was and how often Iowa was a very solid wager. Obviously, more wins could have been if Iowa had even an average offense. But, it did improve as the season wore on. The Hawkeyes were able to cover against terrible opponents. None of the losses were terrible in terms of who they were against except for the loss to Nebraska. Three losses by one score or less possibly kept Iowa out of New Year’s Six bowls. Nevertheless, Iowa should improve next season so long as they fix the offense. However, do not count on that occurring without serious coaching changes that Kirk Ferentz likely will be reluctant to make. This season should have been better in Iowa City, given the incredible Hawkeye defense. 

2022 Grade: C

Minnesota

Preseason Rating: 73.5

Final Rating: 72

Minnesota entered 2022 expecting to contend for the Big Ten West. In that regard, the year was successful. Minnesota indeed competed for its half of the conference and had a realistic chance of getting to Indianapolis late in the season. Unfortunately, it seems injuries plague the Golden Gophers yearly. After pounding its first three opponents, Minnesota lost three straight to teams who would make a bowl. One more loss to Iowa late in the year kept a Big Ten Championship appearance from being a reality. However, Minnesota beat the teams it should have this season, and lost to none that it should not have. A bowl win was the cherry on top of a relatively good season. Expectations were met to the best degree imaginable, despite the power rating falling ever so slightly. PJ Fleck was rumored for several other head coaching positions but is staying in Minneapolis. Expect good things from this team going forward. But, this program probably has a ceiling around performing just well enough so that non NY6 bowls are the best case scenario. Most programs would take that.

2022 Grade: B

Nebraska

Preseason Rating: 69.5

Final Rating: 65.5

Things could not have gone worse this season for Nebraska. The season started off exactly how it went all of 2021, with a close frustrating loss. This time though, the Week 0 loss was to conference opponent Northwestern in Ireland. Thus, Nebraska was already behind in the Big Ten West standings before anyone else had begun their own seasons. The writing was on the wall by the time Nebraska lost at home to Georgia Southern in Week 2 (the Huskers’ third game). Frost was fired and the season that many expected to be luckier than the last few was already over for all intents and purposes. Nebraska failed to notch a quality win until the final week of the season when it upset Iowa. A new regime is headed to Lincoln, but even Matt Rhule took a few seasons to get things right at Baylor. Nebraska will see how much of a miracle worker he is in due time. But for now, 2022 was a season to forget. 

2022 Grade: F

Northwestern

Preseason Rating: 67.5

Final Rating: 63.5

Tempered expectations give Pat Fitzgerald a chance to work with the circle of lower talent Northwestern deals with every several years. Northwestern is one of only several schools in FBS who truly care more about players’ academics than their athletics. Still, good teams that win games are not unusual under Fitzgerald. However, this season was not expected to be a good one; and it was not. The opening game win in Ireland over division opponent Nebraska was the sole win for the season. Drastically worse quarterback play plagued the offense negating any good defenses performances, of which there were not many either. Holding Ohio State to only 21 was the highlight of the year. Fitzgerald is one of college football’s best coaches, but even he could only do so much this season. Time will tell if Fitzgerald can rebound from a one win season (he has before). However, in 2022 even the lowered expectation were not met.

2022 Grade: D+

Purdue

Preseason Rating: 68

Final Rating: 72.5

Purdue finally reached a Big Ten Championship Game in 2022. It was the first time the school had won its division of the conference. The Boilermakers went 8-4 in the regular season with only one really bad loss and had Michigan close for a good amount of time in the aforementioned conference title game. A year could not go better in West Lafayette. But then, head coach Jeff Brohm left Purdue for his alma mater Louisville. Bowl opt outs followed and a massive blowout loss to LSU ensued. Now, a first time head coach takes the reins of a team that really was not that impressive when you look more into it. The Boilermakers underperformed in a lot of games and will drop a significant amount with the loss of a good coach and an all time school quarterback. Purdue was tough to bet or fade this season and might drop down a few pegs on the Big Ten ladder. The rating went up by the end of the season, but it will likely fall quite a bit next year. Time will tell. In the uber-competitive Big Ten, Purdue might just not be a football school after all.

2022 Grade: B+

Wisconsin

Preseason Rating: 80.5

Final Rating: 75

Wisconsin had perhaps its most turbulent season in recent memory. The Badgers fired well-liked head coach Paul Chryst following a less than stellar start and mediocrity became the theme of the season. Wisconsin still had a shot near the end of the year at reaching the Big Ten championship, but lost just too many games. A talented backfield never got to its full potential as the quarterback play was honestly not up to standard. Graham Mertz transfers to Florida so either Chase Wolf or the four star recruit will likely start next season. For now, this team was incredibly difficult to bet on in 2022. However, bottoming out in the mid-70s is a great sign of program strength. Wisconsin will never be a consistently elite program, but the Badgers may reach the CFP in a year where absolutely everything goes right. Now that Luke Fickell is the head man, expect massive program elevation in Madison. 

2022 Grade: D+