2022 AMERICAN ATHLETIC CONFERENCE GRADES

 2022 AAC GRADES

Cincinnati

Preseason Rating: 74.5

Final Rating: 72

A relative let down was the only realistic outcome in 2022 for Cincinnati. The Bearcats came off one of the best seasons in program history and lost loads of key players on both sides of the ball. The defense was still good but the offense could not get the job done consistently enough to make Cincinnati a true threat to repeat as AAC champions. Nevertheless, Cincinnati had a really good season. Three regular season losses, all within one score, plus a bowl appearance should be a solid season for most programs. However, Luke Fickell raised expectations so much that he likely realized he had reached his ceiling at the school. Fickell departed before the bowl. Overall, the Bearcats played to their expected number for the most part and there were several times the spread offered value backing the Bearcats. However, other teams in the conference improved by margins wide enough to overtake Cincinnati in less than perfect year. Perhaps a higher power rating range is now on the table, but it will not be known for a while due to the coaching change. 

2022 Grade: B+

East Carolina

Preseason Rating: 60.5 

Final Rating: 68

Mike Houston possibly had his best season in Greenville. The Pirates nearly defeated NC State to begin the season and were upset really only once (and that was to triple option Navy!). A big loss to Tulane early in the year was surprising at the time, but Tulane ended up having its best season since 1998. So, that really was not a bad loss in retrospect. This team was a solid bet all season long and upped their power rating nearly every week. A road win on a Friday night at BYU showed this team was legitimate. Performance slowed ever so slightly late in the season against Houston and then a close win at lowly (but improving) Temple. Finally, a convincing bowl win as touchdown favorites put the cap on a very good season. Experienced quarterback Holton Ahlers departs, but Mike Houston has the ball rolling towards better things. We will see if he gets there. After all, the AAC will be more open with the departures of Cincincinnati, Houston, and UCF. 

2022 Grade: B+

Houston

Preseason Rating: 68.5

Final Rating: 64

Houston began the year with high expectations. Those expectations were probably unrealistic, but that is easy to say in hindsight. Still, preseason predictions had them higher than a lot of gamblers rated the Cougars. A win over UTSA that required a decent comeback and a 3 overtime two point shootout dampened expectations immediately. The overall trajectory of the season was volatile. Houston’s longest winning streak was three and its longest losing streak was only two. Up and down the Cougars went; an overtime loss to Tulane to open conference play made Houston supporters question their place in the conference. The very next week, a massive comeback at Memphis seemed to right the ship. Relatively easy wins over the basement of the conference (Navy and South Florida) exaggerated Houston’s true strength. A wild 77-63 loss to SMU made the Cougars face reality. Two more wins were had against lowly Temple and average ECU followed before a season finale upset home loss to Tulsa. At least the Cougars won their bowl game against Louisiana. However, the team did not look great in doing so. At no point during the season did Houston look like a team capable of winning the conference. And let’s face it, that is what is expected. After all, the school is paying head coach Dana Holgorsen a pretty penny. These results will not suffice in the Big 12. Houston has the resources to be a legitimate football program capable of regularly contending for the G5 spot in the NY6. Just look at their hoops team! Now, Houston joins the Big 12 and will have a guaranteed chance of reaching a big bowl yearly. However, massive improvements will need to happen and they will need to happen quickly. 

2022 Grade: B 

Memphis

Preseason Rating: 57

Final Rating: 63.5

Memphis began the season in typical fashion going 4-1 with its sole loss to SEC member Mississippi State. Four matchups with inferior teams helped get that record to a seemingly good position. Then, tougher opponents appeared. The Tigers would drop four in a row including a massive blown lead against Houston. Two wins against a down Tulsa squad and FCS North Alabama helped clinch bowl eligibility. A backdoor cover against a decent SMU team ended a relatively mediocre season for Memphis. Throughout the year this betting this team neared impossibility because of inconsistency against the spread. The Tigers handled the teams they should and were defeated by the teams they were not expected to defeat. Memphis’s power rating was surely too low to begin the season and was likely below their typical floor. Still, the 2022 edition of Memphis football was not up to snuff. An easy bowl victory against Utah State ended the year on a high note. All in all, Memphis probably played about to its true number this season. Perhaps that number will rise once the consistently better members of the conference leave for the Big 12 next year. 

2022 Grade: B-

Navy

Preseason Rating: 53

Final Rating: 60

Navy really struggled the first half of the season while the offense was almost nonexistent. The Midshipmen turned it around following an early bye and became a solid wager for much of the season. Big spreads were fodder for those willing to take the points on the methodical triple option team. However, wins on the field lacked and a brutal loss to Army was the final straw for coach Ken Niumatalolo. Even improving over the season was not enough to save his job. Navy expects to compete for bowls and their rating would need to be in the upper 60’s given the conference. Recruiting is obviously completely different at a service academy and option offenses are the easy answer for the lack of size and talent, but it will still be interesting to see how the new era goes in Annapolis. 

2022 Grade: C

SMU

Preseason Rating: 68

Final Rating: 68.5

SMU was a great bet as a focused favorite throughout the season but also was prone to backdoor covers and outright disappointments when the offense failed to score just enough. The defense was nonexistent most of the season but first year coach Rhett Lashlee sure did a great job implementing his offense. Tanner Mordecai throwing the ball certainly helped. The Mustangs did not lose to a team that should have been an easy victory. Thus, they could be considered relatively dependable. This is a great sign for a program with a first year coach. Things should get better from here so long as the recruiting remains up to the level it was under Sonny Dykes. 

Grade: B+

South Florida

Preseason Rating: 57

Final Rating: 51

South Florida was atrocious this season. The Bulls failed to defeat an FBS opponent and regularly allowed 40 points or more. Jeff Scott was let go during the middle of the season and things somehow worsened. At no point was the team bettable despite getting lots of points on a weekly basis. The unreliable defense was too porous to back with even the smallest amount of money. SOuth Florida has leaps and bounds to make up to get to slightly average in the AAC. Expectations were low and still were not met. The Bulls’ power rating dropped nearly a touchdown over the course of the season. 

2022 Grade: F

Temple

Preseason Rating: 42.5

Final Rating: 53

Perhaps no poor team improved in 2022 quite like the Temple Owls. First year head coach Stan Drayton changed quarterbacks to EJ Warner during the middle of the season and it was like flipping a switch. Sure, the Owls did not start winning lots of games but the offense began moving the ball more consistently. Losses still resulted but covering the spread became more and more regular. Obviously, covering was easier given larger spreads. Still, the team saw some improvement. Warner will be a huge piece to the puzzle going forward and hopefully Drayton prevents him from entering the portal to be poached by a better team. Overall, Temple was tough to bet on but covers did often result. 

2022 Grade: C

Tulane

Preseason Rating: 71

Final Rating: 77

Tulane won only two games in 2021. One of the wins was against an FCS opponent and the other was against South Florida who has not been even decent in some time. However, five of the ten losses were by one score or less. Typically, teams that lose games in such a fashion will turn such luck around the following year, provided their coach is at least competent and they bring back solid experience. Tulane did just that. Willie Fritz is one of the best coaches in FBS and Michael Pratt’s experience at quarterback trumped his actual talent. A fantastic run game and good enough defense helped Tulane to its best season in decades. Oddsmakers never caught up. The Green Wave covered almost every single game they played. It seemed as though Tulane became slightly overrated around the time of their home loss to UCF, but followed the loss up with a series of impressive wins. Finally, a memorable comeback Cotton Bowl Classic win was the cherry on top of a fantastic season. Pratt has another year left. His return would help Tulane’s rating stay as high as it is. There might be some room left to go up, but it appears the Green Wave have probably reached their ceiling. If anyone can prove that wrong, it might just be Willie Fritz.

2022 Grade: A

Tulsa

Preseason Rating: 57

Final Rating: 58

Expectations are usually low at Tulsa. The school is the smallest in FBS and resources are not as plentiful as most of the competition. Still, Tulsa has won a good number of games and been to bowls over the last decade. So expectations are also never too low. Philip Montgomery was fired as a result of this poor year. Only one good win came about in 2022 and it was the final game of the year against Houston. The remaining victories were against inferior competition when Tusla was usually favored. Bad losses mounted, including letting up 53 against a down Navy squad. The team had appeared to quit on Montgomery and it was probably best to let him go before things got much worse. Tulsa will get back to a level where they are a great value bet week in and week out, but it will take some time. That quality escaped the Golden Hurricane in 2022. Even so, Tusla improved its rating by one point over the course of the season. 

2022 Grade: D

UCF

Preseason Rating: 76.5

Final Rating: 71

Don’t be fooled by UCF’s final power rating being lower than its preseason one. 2022 was not a bad year in Orlando. The Knights appeared in the AAC Championship game against Tulane and won nine games overall. In fact, UCF handed Tulane its only conference loss when they met in the regular season. However, standards are high at Central Florida and Gus Malzahn still has yet to fully live up to them. A shot at a NY6 appearance was not out of the question until late in the year, but this season did not feel special for UCF at any point. Good wins came about for sure, but none were season altering. The move to the Big 12 makes things tougher, but UCF should offer plenty of good betting opportunities even before fully acclimating to the new league. 2022 was not a failure for UCF, it just was not the best either.

2022 Grade: B