2022 ACC GRADES

 2022 ACC GRADES

Boston College 

Preseason Rating: 68.5

Final Rating: 55

BC failed to meet expectations by a wide margin as evidenced by the large change in its power rating from the start to the end of the season. Phil Jurkovec missed some games but not enough to justify only winning three games. The Eagles won twice against ACC opponents (both times by one point) and notched a third win against FCS Maine early in the year. A serious lack of talent prevents this program from competing in the ACC. Games were rarely competitive and a three point output against UConn cemented this season as one to forget.  Jeff Hafley seemed to have Boston College gaining ground last season only to give it all back in 2022. Jurkovec moves on through the portal and the overall outlook is grim. Yes, talent is lacking, but the school has acceptable resources.The Eagles rating is at a basement level and big improvement will be hard to come by in the short run. Let’s see how much slack the school gives Hafley before looking to move on. 

2022 grade: F

Clemson

Preseason Rating: 83

Final Rating: 82.5

Many prognosticators predicted Clemson reaching the College Football Playoff this year after missing out in 2021. They reasoned, and not unrightfully so, that last season was simply a down year and that things would return to normal this fall. However, Clemson’s offense never really got going which many attributed to the loss of coordinator Tony Elliott to the head coaching job at Virginia. DJ Uiagalelei never seemed settled in the new offense and his inaccuracy often frustrated Tiger fans. Nevertheless, Clemson rattled off wins until losing to an unranked Notre Dame team on the road the first week of November. Both an ACC Championship and a CFP trip remained on the table if things only went Clemson’s way elsewhere. A drop from fourth to tenth following the loss was not a complete elimination, but Clemson obviously could not afford another loss. A stunning home loss to instate rival South Carolina ended all hope of a trip back to College Football’s version of the final four. Throughout the year, Clemson’s rating hovered around its preseason expectation, which is likely the low end of Clemson’s range under Dabo Swinney. Still, that number is much lower than what has become common the last ten or seasons. Clemson should always have a top notch defense. This year it slipped. However, without an elite passer, the Tigers will nearly never have a chance at being in the top four. Unfortunately for DJ Uiagalelei, he was a major reason why Clemson struggled to remain in the elite of FBS. An embarrassing bowl loss could harm this program more than many think. Recruiting has dropped ever so slightly the last two seasons. The ACC remains Clemson’s to lose every year, but regular playoff trips might be a thing of the past. Still, Clemson basically met this season’s expectations for those who place bets on college football.

2022 Grade: C+

Florida State

Preseason Rating: 68.5

Final Rating: 80

Florida State had only one or two quality wins and did not make a bowl in 2021. Expectations were low heading into this season. Yet, Mike Norvell orchestrated the best season in Tallahassee since the best years under Jimbo Fisher. A dramatic upset win over LSU in New Orleans on Labor Day weekend put FBS on notice that Florida State was wildly better this season. Still, it took time for the power ratings to fully catch up. A three game losing streak in the middle of the season put the Seminoles in their place. In fact, they were not “back” as many proclaimed early in the season. Sure, Florida State was much better and had a competent quarterback, but really none of their wins were impressive. FSU won exactly zero games against teams who were ranked at the time of the game. Those who were aware were able to properly rate this team and fade them when the odds were favorable. This team may have reached its ceiling this year but perhaps Norvell has even more room to get this program into true ACC contention. All in all, Florida State improved a lot this season, and not many other Power 5 programs moved as high from a preseason start. 

2022 Grade: B+

Louisville

Preseason Rating: 75.5

Final Rating: 72

2022 was eventful for the Cardinals to say the least. Scott Satterfield moves on to bowl opponent Cincinnati. The coach was likely wise in moving on when he did, seeing as though expectations were rarely, if ever, met during his time at Louisville. Potent offenses were never as electric as promised and defense was often optional. Average seasons are not acceptable at a school that spends as much on its athletic budget as Louisville does. It was only a matter of time before the administration demanded improved performance. After all, Louisville has been to significant bowls in the last ten years. Having said that, Louisville was not THAT bad this year. Sure, Malik Cunningham could have been a Heisman candidate if everything had gone better, but a blowout loss at Syracuse in Week 1 deflated expectations right out of the gate. Inconsistencies led to frustration and lowered team morale. However, Louisville still made a bowl after winning a few games against ranked teams. Therefore, the floor is relatively high for this program. Expect new coach Jeff Brohm to slowly but surely get Louisville’s rating higher. Who knows, with a few diamonds in the rough recruits, this team could contend in what seems to be an improving ACC Atlantic division.  

2022 Grade: C-

NC State

Preseason Rating: 81.5

Final Rating: 69

Dave Doeren’s coaching elevates NC State nearly every year he has been in Raleigh. The Wolf Pack regularly upset better programs and reached bowl eligibility. Contending for the ACC title has become somewhat regular to the extent that Clemson has a down year. That has happened a lot. Regardless, NC State garners respect. Before this season, many thought NC State could win the conference and possibly contend for the CFP if everything went perfectly. However, it became obvious in just the first game that this year’s edition of the Wolf Pack was wildly overrated. NC State was lucky to defeat East Carolina by just one point. Doeren has been a great underdog coach in the past and showed that favoritism was not his best spot. While NC State often blows out far inferior opponents, they often had trouble with those who are somewhat capable. Injuries took their toll as the season wore on, including a season ending injury to the oft-lauded quarterback Devin Leary. Leary struggled even when healthy and the season collapsed without him. However, NC State remained in the top 25 of the CFP long after they should have been dropped. Take a moment to see who sits on the CFP committee and that should give a clue as to why that transpired. Anyway, stunning late season wins over Wake Forest and rival North Carolina likely salvaged the season. A bowl loss to former ACC member Maryland leaves a bitter taste in the mouths of Wolf Pack fans. However, expect this program to bounce back next year. 

2022 Grade: C-

Syracuse

Preseason Rating: 64.5

Final Rating: 68.5

Syracuse head coach Dino Babers’ job possibly was saved by the Orange’s 6-0 start that ended with a close loss at Clemson. In the meantime, Syracuse entered the top 25 rankings for the first time in years as star running back Sean Tucker often carried the team to victory. An injury limited Tucker at times and quarterback Garrett Schrader was as superb as he needed to be. However, things turned south during the second half of the schedule. Four more losses followed the Clemson defeat. Not coincidentally, these losses were against teams much better than those Syracuse faced during the first half of the season. Syracuse was a solid fade as their rating topped out in the low 70s. The losing streak ended with a road win in the season finale at horrid Boston College. A Pinstripe Bowl appearance was a solid reward for a decent year. Tucker opted out, essentially taking away any realistic chance the Orange had against Big Ten opponent Minnesota. However, Syracuse fought hard and covered the closing number. To sum up 2022 for Syracuse, the Orange improved. No longer is Syracuse a basement ACC walkover opponent regularly allowing 45+ points and tons of yards. However, was the ceiling reached? Will Babers make another bowl now that Tucker heads to the NFL? Or was his talent the lynchpin behind Syracuse being a respectable program? Time will tell. For now, 2022 went better than expected for Syracuse, even if a long losing streak followed the long winning streak.

2022 Grade: B

Wake Forest

Preseason Rating: 76.5

Final Rating: 73.5

Expect good results anytime a good coach returns an experienced quarterback on an already solid team. That is exactly what Wake Forest had this season. Dave Clawson perhaps does more with less than any coach in FBS. Although, Clawson has benefitted mightily the last several seasons from the talents of quarterback Sam Hartman. Hartman’s career was feared over right before the season. Thankfully, he avoided that fate and played nearly the entire season. Hartman is good, but slightly overrated. Still, he helped Wake win many more games than they otherwise would with an average passer. The Demon Deacons continued their place as a solid underdog this year with a double overtime loss to Clemson being the only blemish on the first half of the schedule. Yet, Wake dropped four of its final five games to drop out of the ACC race. A win over Missouri in the bowl saved the season from full disappointment. Regardless, the season was good despite the field goal drop in power rating from start to finish. Hartman moves on from Wake Forest so Clawson once again has his work cut out for him. However, expectations are usually topped in Winston-Salem, and the future should remain bright. Wake Forest will always be rated in the 70s under Clawson’s guidance. A really special year could even get the Deacons into the 80s.

2022 Grade: C+

Duke

Preseason Rating: 54.5

Final Rating: 72

Besides possibly Kansas, no program improved more in 2022 than Duke. First year head coach Mike Elko used some sort of sorcery to turn a fairly limited roster into a 9 win team. Duke’s only losses were at a surging Kansas by eight, then back to back three point losses to Georgia Tech in overtime on the road and against rival North Carolina, and finally a two point loss at Pitt late in the season. Those results alone, which remember, are losses, show the massive improvement. At least two of those would have been complete blowouts a year ago. Sure, the Blue Devils’ schedule was nothing to write home about, but wins were racked up nevertheless. Duke provided golden betting opportunities multiple times this fall and their bowl game really gave a good indication of a more accurate power rating. Their 17.5 point increase is the most this season. Therefore, Mike Elko likely had the largest impact of any coach on his team this season. There is not much more else to add than that.

2022 Grade: A

Georgia Tech

Preseason Rating: 56.5

Final Rating: 60

Georgia Tech finally realized that Geoff Collins was not the answer. Rather than fall prey to the sunk cost fallacy, the administration fired Collins mid season to begin moving on as soon as possible. Perhaps not surprisingly, the team improved almost immediately upon the switch. Granted, Georgia Tech did not magically transform into a good football team, but the Yellowjackets began looking at least respectable. Nice wins against Pitt, Duke, and North Carolina prevented the season from being a complete disaster. Significant moves will need to be made in terms of recruiting and determining at what level Georgia Tech realistically can expect to perform. 2022 was actually a decent season in Atlanta considering how it began. 

2022 Grade: B-  

Miami

Preseason Rating: 82

Final Rating: 65

Look no further than the 2022 Miami Hurricanes to see how difficult it is for an incoming head coach to win immediately even after having success at a different school. Mario Cristobal had a rough go of it in his first season at his alma mater to say the least. The Hurricanes were expected to contend in the ACC with a stud quarterback and talent littered all over the roster. Yet, in-game coaching was less than stellar and game plans seemed to never coalesce. An outright embarrassing loss at home to Middle Tennessee shut the door on Miami having a great year. Things only got worse from there. Miami was practically not bettable the rest of the way as its rating plummeted compared to preseason expectations. However, do not be surprised to see relatively quick improvement in the next few seasons. Still, the ACC appears to be getting more competitive, so the U will not be realistically back until some major changes occur. 

2022 Grade: F

North Carolina

Preseason Rating: 68.5

Final Rating: 71.5

Expectations could not have been more tempered after last season left Tar Heel fans feeling hugely disappointed. North Carolina essentially wasted the career of possibly the best quarterback in program history. Yet, most did not know how good the next one would be. Drake Maye was considered a Heisman candidate by many until late in the season. The freshman was terrific as UNC racked up wins and climbed in the polls. However, astute gamblers knew that North Carolina’s record deceived the true strength of the team. The 9-1 start did not receive much respect from the early editions of the CFP poll and many were surprised. However, losses to Georgia Tech and a down NC State unveiled the real Tar Heels. Granted, the season was still good, but North Carolina was nowhere near what many thought. The power rating did improve by a field goal but that was likely due to North Carolina playing around its typical level. A good bowl showing as double digit dogs was a gift for those willing to take the points. All in all, North Carolina was a decent wager at times throughout the year but often laid too many points as a favorite. The future should be bright with Maye returning to Chapel Hill. The defense must improve if North Carolina wants to contend for the ACC Championship. 

2022 Grade: B-

Pittsburgh

Preseason Rating: 80

Final Rating: 71.5

Pitt entered 2022 with slightly tempered expectations following the best season in arguably decades. The Panthers lost a first round draft pick quarterback and a Biletnikoff winning receiver, among others. Surely things would not go as well as 2021. However, Pat Narduzzi is a solid coach and the subsequent drop off should not have been as much as it ended up being. Kedon Slovid was a highly touted transfer quarterback coming in to replace the aforementioned Kenny Pickett. Plus, enough additional talent dotted the roster, especially on the defense, to keep this team in contention for the ACC and a New Year’s Six bowl. However, a closer than expected win in the Backyard Brawl was brushed off with the logic that anything can happen in rivalry games. But an overtime loss at home to Tennessee surprised Pitt fans. Remember, Tennessee was not yet known to be a top end team. Gamblers adjusted their ratings of Pitt accordingly. A loss against a struggling Georgia Tech team really sunk expectations. Injuries mounted and things got even tougher. However, following back to back road losses, Pitt did not lose another game. Finally, the season ended in dramatic fashion with Pitt winning outright as underdogs to UCLA in the Sun Bowl. A good season matching what preseason expectations should have probably been was achieved. Sure, Pitt was nowhere near as good as last year. But, they probably were not as good last year as it appeared. After all, Pitt’s ceiling really is not THAT high. If the final rating for 2022 is an accurate floor for Pitt now under Narduzzi, this program could make a lot of future noise in the ACC’s Coastal Division. So, despite the significant drop in final rating compared to preseason rating, all things considered, Pitt actually had a pretty good season. 

2022 Grade: B-

Virginia

Preseason Rating: 65.5

Final Rating: 61

Virginia’s season turned out to be tragic. Understandably, the shooting murders of several members of the team by a former team member resulted in the cancellation of the final two games. The Cavaliers regressed in Tony Elliott’s first season as a head coach after being OC at Clemson for several years. Scoring plummeted from the prior season despite most of the key offensive players returning. Backing the Hoos was only possible when getting points against similarly bad teams. Results on the field were poor but paled in comparison to the tragedy that ended the season. It will be monumentally tough for UVA to improve this offseason.

2022 Grade: D+ 

Virginia Tech

Preseason Rating: 60

Final Rating: 56

Typically, first years of new head coaching regimes are difficult. For Virginia Tech in 2022, it was notably bad. The Hokies are nowhere close to their typical level of play and were among the worst teams in the Power Five conferences. Only one conference victory was recorded in Brent Pry’s first season. Thirty points were never scored in one game. Embarrassing blowout defeats and frustrating one score losses became the norm near the end of the season. This team was nearly unbeatable all season given the low level of talent. Expectations were low going into the season but the 2022 Hokies were even worse. It will be tough to see this team improving markedly given the entire division seems to be on the improve. 

2022 Grade: D+