12/31 Bowl Bets Update

 BOWL GAMES BETS

Betting Info as of 12/31 per Bovada

All Times are Eastern

Bowl season is upon us yet again. Bowl games are some of the most fun games to watch but can be wildly difficult to bet. From coaching changes to player opt-outs, the variables seem endless. To make it simple, bettors can evaluate which games offer good wagers and the most consistencies with the participants’ regular seasons. Throw out games involving key changes unless you feel entirely confident that you are still getting a solid edge. Otherwise, too much can go frustratingly wrong. Updates will be published on certain games depending on player status and other vital information only available closer to gameday. 

Saturday, Dec 31st

SUGAR BOWL

Alabama vs Kansas State (+8)

NOON

Alabama takes on Kansas State in another game filled with uncertainty. Alabama potentially faces a plethora of opt outs that are unknown as of writing. Star quarterback Bryce Young will play, so the Crimson Tide have a substantial advantage over Kansas State. The Big 12 champs are on fire after a tremendous regular season that saw only two close losses to TCU and Texas and an upset defeat at home to Tulane early in the season. Running back Deuce Vaughn is spectacular and will be relied on heavily. Chris Klieman is a very good coach who probably deserves a raise. Whatever K-State is paying him, it is not enough. The Wildcats will surely be motivated against one of, if not the biggest, brand in the sport. Yet, the talent still is nowhere close to that of Alabama’s. The Crimson Tide’s two biggest stars are playing, so make the bet on the favorite. The play: Alabama-6.5 (1 unit) UPDATE (12/30): This spread has moved all the way to seven with more juice on Kansas State than Alabama. The Tide are probably over a touchdown better than K-State, but recently the Wildcats have easily covered and outright defeated teams much better than them. Still, Bama is chock-full of NFL talent. Lay the favorite but only at a number less than a full score. The play: Alabama at any number less than minus-7 (1 unit) UPDATE (12/31): Alabama was predictably bet up once the status of Young and Anderson became known. The Tide are still a top end team at full strength. Kansas State is good for sure, but Alabama has more than enough talent to keep star running back Deuce Vaughn in check and shut down the Wildcat offense. This game is a pass at the current number unless you really like Alabama to be motivated here. The play: Pass

MUSIC CITY BOWL

Iowa vs Kentucky (+3)

NOON

Iowa and Kentucky meet in Nashville for the Music City Bowl. Both teams will be without their starting quarterbacks. Additionally, Kentucky will not have starting running Chris Rodriguez. Kentucky is perhaps a touchdown worse without those two, but Iowa’s defense is so good that the difference might be magnified a whole lot. Still, this spread is probably closer to pick and you can get a slight edge on the Wildcats getting two. The play: Kentucky+2.5 (1 unit) UPDATE (12/31): The spread has gone to a full field goal, Kentucky might have trouble moving the ball, but so will Iowa. Kentucky is still the play but only by the smallest margin. The play: Kentucky+3 (1 unit)

FIESTA BOWL (CFP)

TCU vs Michigan (-8)

4:00 PM

TCU makes its first trip to the CFP ever despite losing the Big 12 Championship game. The fact that the Toads got the game to OT before succumbing to a hot Kansas State opponent probably ensured this appearance. TCU had a fantastic year that nearly nobody anticipated. Typically, teams do not improve so markedly in the first year of a new coach, especially when the new coach replaces a stalwart like Gary Patterson who was at the school since the 1990s. TCU will play methodically and Sonny Dykes might be one of the few coaches who realizes you need to play high variance football to pull off an upset of a truly elite opponent. TCU stands little to no chance against Michigan if the play conventional football. The Horned Frogs would be well advised to take up as much time as possible when in possession and run some highly unorthodox plays. Sure, this might lead to a blow out loss, but playing normally almost surely will. This strategy will be much more difficult to implement on defense where the other team dictates a lot of how you can defend. Michigan’s game plan will be just the opposite; the Wolverines will rely on a steady ground game and superb line play to bully the Toads defense. If Michigan is picking up any more than 5 yards a carry this game will be over fast. The Michigan defense is a bit of a mystery. Yes, the schedule was weak on the front end and the Wolverines do not have too many quality opponents to truly gauge how well they can stop opponents. Still, they did more than enough against a quality Penn State team and they flummoxed a highly touted Ohio State offense in Columbus. However, Purdue looked solid for a while in the Big Ten Championship and coach Dykes is very similar to me in relation to Jeff Brohm. This game is very interesting and is incredibly tough to bet given the current spread. Maybe wait and see what you can get and where it moves. An update will be provided closer to the day of the game. UPDATE (12/30): This spread has barely budged since opening. It seems everyone is waiting for it to move one way or the other other and then pounce. For now, wait and see if Michigan gets down to minus-7. Lay the favorite when, and if, that happens. Otherwise, it might be best to sit this one out. From a handicapping perspective, Michigan has the ability to blow out almost anyone. It would not be a surprise to see a big Wolverines win, but the line is not favorable and only a small wager would be appropriate at anything more than a touchdown. UPDATE (12/31): Enough wagering has finally occurred to warrant line movement. The Wolverines are now favored by eight. Michigan might possibly be a high 90s team rather than one topping out in the low 90s. TCU is good and has had a wonderful season. However, Michigan has NFL talent at nearly every positional unit and loves blowing out undermatched opponents. This is worth a small wager on the favorite. The play: Michigan-8 (2 units)

PEACH BOWL (CFP)

Ohio State vs Georgia (-6.5)

8:00 PM

Ohio State will take on Georgia as the Big Ten receives more than one CFP invite for the first time. The Buckeyes were a top rated team for much of the year and are likely much better than they were in the second half against Michigan. Mistakes plagued Ohio State in their one loss and the defense was gashed while taking major risks trying to get back into the game. To be clear, Ohio State got rocked by Michigan in the second half. However, the wide margin seemed to be more surprising than it truly was, as it was likely due to a domino effect of mishaps. Georgia is not an opponent who you can beat when making any mistakes. The defending champs steamrolled their way through the season and probably deserved to be ranked 1 in all polls from gate to wire. There is really no need to evaluate Georgia too much. They are really good, but maybe slightly worse than last year. Still, the Bulldogs power rating remains high at just under 100. That being said, Ohio State is probably closer to a field goal worse than Georgia. Seven might look like a gift at halftime. The Buckeyes are good and have solid coaching. Betting this game is a test in fickleness. Most gamblers are far too fickle and they pay for it. Not overreacting to one game is a key in successful sports betting. Therefore, the edge here is pretty substantial. The play: Ohio State+7 (10 units) UPDATE (12/30): Well, Ohio State finally moved to plus-6.5. The Buckeyes are a legit team and serious gamblers listened to their numbers. Now that the number is under a touchdown, it is probably too late to wager unless you think this is a field goal game or you like Georgia by a large margin. Six and a half is not the best number and you should wait for more line movement. UPDATE (12/31): The spread continues to move down as money comes in on Ohio State. The Buckeyes have a legitimate chance to win this game. The original spread bet of plus-7 obviously stays given the value it now has. However, a moneyline bet on the dog is now in play. The play: Ohio State+185 (4 units)

Monday, Jan 2nd

RELIAQUEST BOWL 

Mississippi State vs Illinois (+1.5)

NOON

The loss of Coach Leach is obviously enormous. That alone makes this game beyond difficult to bet. Gauging the motivation and focus of Mississippi State will be nearly impossible given the circumstances. The line understandably has moved in Illinois’ favor. The play: Pass

COTTON BOWL 

Tulane vs USC (-2)

1:00 PM

As of writing, this game is difficult to bet. Tulane is a very solid team whose ceiling is not really known. It will likely be figured during this game. WIllie Fritz is one of the best coaches in the country and the nation finally woke up to that fact this season. Perhaps Fritz cements his case with an upset of a team that would have been in the CFP with a win in its conference championship game. On the other side, USC has some issues. Star quarterback and Heisman winner Caleb Williams likely has hamstring issues that could linger into this matchup. USC should be about a touchdown favorite with Williams healthy. It is a different story if he is unable to play. Star receiver Jordan Addison has opted out for the Trojans but there is still enough firepower on the perimeter. Nevertheless, his presence will be missed. This game will be updated as it gets closer to kickoff and more information regarding Williams’ status is available. The play: wait

CITRUS BOWL

LSU vs Purdue (+14.5)

1:00 PM

Yet another bowl game will be difficult to predict due to a coaching change. Purdue head coach Jeff Brohm has left the Boilermakers to return to his alma mater Louisville. Brohm is one of very few coaches who dares to think outside the box and often upsets much more talented teams because of it. He should improve Louisville tremendously over time. For now, his brother Brian will take the reins for the bowl. He has been the offensive coordinator at Purdue for the duration of his brother’s tenure as head coach. The drop off will not be that much. LSU had a roller coaster season that went relatively well. Brian Kelly has this team on the right path but discipline lacks at present. That could likely be attributed to the holdovers from the end of the Orgeron era. Time will tell. Quarterback Jayden Daniels might be injured, but line movement indicates that he will likely play. Even so, the Tigers are not over two scores better than Purdue. It will be apparent fairly early whether or not Purdue has a realistic chance to cover. Like some of the other later games, wait and see for more information as kickoff approaches. But, look to snag Purdue at the current number or higher for a minimum wager. The play: Purdue+14 or more (1 unit)

 

ROSE BOWL

Penn State vs Utah (-2)

5:00 PM

Penn State and Utah meet in Pasadena for what should be an entertaining Rose Bowl. Both teams had terrific years that were just short of elite. Penn State’s two losses were to Ohio State and Michigan, both of whom will be participating in the CFP. Utah lost at Florida to open the year, at a hot UCLA team in the middle of the season, and at Oregon in a close game nearing the end of the season. Still, Utah managed to play in the PAC-12 Championship and defeated USC going away after being down by a sizable margin in the first half before Caleb Williams’ injury. Penn State is likely one of the top seven or eight teams in the country despite falling to eleventh in the latest CFP poll. Utah is surely up there too and blew out a lot of teams on their schedule. The underdog is the one to bet but the spread is spot on for now. Waiting to see if you can get three on the underdog is the way to go. The play: Penn State+3 (1 unit)

Friday, Dec 16th

BAHAMAS BOWL

Miami (Ohio) vs UAB (-11)

11:30 AM

Miami Ohio and UAB kick off bowl season in the Bahamas. Miami had somewhat of a disappointing season after injuries at the quarterback position made the team sporadic. UAB’s season was acceptable after the unexpected late departure of Bill Clark before the year began. The spread is a little too high here for the favorite, but a decent running attack like UAB’s can absolutely clobber most MAC defenses. The RedHawks starting quarterback has entered the portal, so the backup will be under center. However, that really is not the biggest deal due to the experience gained as a result of the aforementioned in-season injuries. The edge here is not massive and UAB is the better overall program. But, Chuck Martin is a decent coach and presents some betting opportunity with the points. The play: Miami (Ohio)+11 (1 unit) 

WIN Miami (OH) 20 - UAB 24

CURE BOWL

UTSA vs Troy (-1.5)

3:00 PM

The champions of the CUSA and Sun Belt Conference meet in Orlando in the Cure Bowl. UTSA and Troy both had phenomenal seasons. Either team could have been ranked relatively high save for one loss on the final possession. UTSA lost to Houston in a two point shootout, and Troy lost to Appalachian State on that famous Hail Mary touchdown early in the season in Boone. Neither team has lost since Week 3 (UTSA loss at Texas; Troy in the game mentioned) and both won their conference championship games in convincing fashion. Make no bones about it, this is a really solid bowl matchup that will go unnoticed by most college football fans. Those who know, though, know. Jeff Traylor has been terrific at UTSA and Jon Sumrall’s first season as head coach at Troy could not have gone better. UTSA has been consistent all season but did not win as many blowouts as a year ago. Therefore, their power rating regressed ever so slightly this season. However, it is still very high for a CUSA squad. Meanwhile, Troy’s rating increased all season and is likely nearing its top after the pummeling it gave Coastal Carolina in the SBC Championship. That is all pointing at an edge that is minimal at best. Betting either side really cannot be faulted. The line has moved towards making Troy a favorite. However, the Trojans rating might be just a tiny bit unreliable. Let’s see how their defense handles the incredibly experienced attack of the Roadrunners. MEEP MEEP!! The play: UTSA+1.5 (1 unit) 

LOSS UTSA 12 - Troy 18

Saturday, Dec 17th

FENWAY BOWL

Cincinnati vs Louisville (-1.5)

11:00 AM

There is way too much going on with this game to make it worthy of wagering. Both teams have changed coaches, including Cincinnati hiring Louisville’s own coach, Scott Saterfield, and both are difficult to figure in terms of motivation and who will be playing. Therefore no true edge can be found here. The play: Pass

Louisville 24 - Cincinnati 7

LAS VEGAS BOWL

Florida vs Oregon State (-10)

2:30 PM

Florida and Oregon State finish their seasons with a trip to Sin City for the Las Vegas Bowl. Now played in Allegiant Stadium, the Las Vegas Bowl has offered solid matchups for a while now. This game may be an exception due to the abundance of players transferring and opting out on both sides. The line shot up after opening at 5.5 in favor of Oregon. Florida’s quarterback is leaving so he will not play, but Oregon State will also be relying on its backup, albeit a backup who essentially commandeered the starting role over the course of the season. Even with the opt-outs, Florida still likely has more talent than Oregon State. However, the Beavers are much more of a team than the Gators on account of Jonathan Smith being an outstanding coach and Billy Napier only being in his first year in Gainesville. Therefore, this game is a tough one to find an edge on, so I will sit it out. The play: Pass

Oregon State 30 - Florida 3

LA BOWL

Washington State vs Fresno State (-3)

3:30 PM

Washington State has lost both coordinators to other jobs in the leadup to their LA Bowl matchup with Fresno State. The Cougars had a solid season and their power rating significantly increased over the course of the season. Definitely a team to keep an eye on next year. Meanwhile, Fresno State is a top tier G5 team when quarterback Jake Heaner plays. Things are different when Haener cannot play, as evidenced by early season losses to inferior opponents. Jeff Tedford is a good coach and Fresno typically plays well in bowls. The edge is not huge, but losing both coordinators is really tough. So, laying points with Fresno is probably a decent wager. However, Wazzu still has the players to keep it close and even win. The play: Pass

Fresno State 29 - Washington State 6

LENDING TREE BOWL

Rice vs Southern Miss (-7)

5:45 PM

Rice takes on Southern Miss in the Lending Tree Bowl which should be a wonderful coaching matchup. This game would have been a CUSA conference game only a year ago, but Southern Miss moved to the Sun Belt Conference during the offseason. Now, this non-conference contest occurs in a bowl game. Both teams had similar seasons insofar as being excellent bets at times. Rice consistently covered as a dog and relied on slowing superior offenses down. Southern Miss routinely overperformed and improved a bunch in Will Hall’s second full season. Mike Bloomgran is a formidable adversary and Rice relying on its backup quarterback will not be the same concern it would for other teams. Seven points is a lot in this spot and the edge is decent. To be clear, USM is the better team, but Rice is capable of keeping it close just long enough to cover. A straight up win would not be shocking. The play: Rice+7 (2 units)

Southern Miss 38 - Rice 24

NEW MEXICO BOWL

SMU vs BYU (+5.5)

7:30 PM

BYU might be without its starting quarterback when it takes on SMU in the New Mexico Bowl. THe COugars struggled more this season than in recent years. The defense was nonexistent at times and there was no reliable player beyond the quarterback. Kelani SItake is a decent coach but seems a bit overrated. Meanwhile, Rhett Lashlee had a fantastic first year at SMU. The record was acceptable for a first year coach, but the Mustangs rely almost entirely on winning shootouts. Defense is optional in Dallas. The line opened favoring BYU by one and a half and has swung to SMU laying five and a half. That is quite a move. The game is unbeatable unless you really think Jalen Hall is worth about a touchdown to BYU. Besides, both teams are fairly evenly matched. No real edge here. The play: Pass

BYU 24 - SMU 23

FRISCO BOWL

North Texas vs Boise State (-10.5)

9:15 PM

North Texas fired head coach Seth Litrell after losing the CUSA Championship game against UTSA. The move was fairly surprising. Sure, North Texas rarely has a good defense, but the Mean Green typically score a lot of points. Boise State improved a lot over the course of the season. Andy Avalos is not the best coach but did okay this year. Boise might clobber North Texas but this one is not worth a bet. The play: Pass

Boise State 35 - North Texas 32

MYRTLE BEACH BOWL

Marshall vs UConn (+10)

2:30 PM

UConn makes its first bowl game since also playing Marshall in the 2015 St. Petersburg Bowl. The Huskies lost that matchup and are getting over a score this time around. Jim Mora had a masterful season showing how much difference a motivated coach can make. Meanwhile, Marshall had a good year of its own which included a win at Notre Dame early in the year. The spread is about right here and there really is no value to be had. After all, UConn’s ceiling is clearly much higher than it was prior to hiring Mora, and who knows if they have gotten to that level just yet. The play: Pass

Marshall 28 - UConn 14

Tuesday, Dec 20th

FAMOUS IDAHO POTATO BOWL

Eastern Michigan vs San Jose State (-3.5)

3:30 PM

Eastern Michigan takes on San Jose State in the Famous Idaho Potato Bowl. Eastern Michigan head coach, Chris Creighton, is fantastic and notched a signature win against Arizona State that ended Herm Edwards’ time in the desert. The Eagles play close lots of games and getting a field goal plus the hook is juicy. However, San Jose State has all the motivation in the world to win a bowl after the death of a teammate early in the season. The spread is about right and the hook really makes it a difficult proposition. Take the Eagles if you want, but be aware that the Spartans have a more talented roster and a really solid passer. Any discernible edge here is probably a mirage. The play: Pass

Eastern Michigan 41 - San Jose State 27

BOCA RATON BOWL

Liberty vs Toledo (-5)

7:30 PM

Liberty is without its coach now that Hugh Freeze got the Auburn job. The Flames really struggled at times this season, but looked terrific for stretches as well. Constant changes at quarterback made things tough and Freeze leaving only brings further uncertainty into the picture. Toledo also had to rely on multiple passers this season and really struggled when its starter was unavailable. Still, the Rockets won the MAC Championship game and coach Jason Candle is terrific. The spread has moved significantly since opening and Liberty is just too unpredictable without Freeze. The play: Pass

Toledo 21 - Liberty 19

Wednesday, Dec 21st

NEW ORLEANS BOWL

Western Kentucky vs South Alabama (-4.5)

9:00 PM

This game came back on the board when Western Kentucky’s quarterback returned after a brief stint in the transfer portal. He makes this game much closer than the spread and it has moved accordingly. Western Kentucky had a good year even after the loss of NCAA passing record holder Bailey Zappe ascended to the NFL. The Hilltoppers are one of the best offenses in college football and always provide an entertaining game. Only one bad defeat dots the results and this game should not be too much of a step up in class for WKU. Meanwhile, South Alabama had a fantastic year that included a near upset of UCLA at the Rose Bowl. One conference loss to Troy kept the Jaguars from earning a spot in the Sun Belt Championship game, but it was a tremendous season nevertheless. Western Kentucky played consistently all year and nearly matched their 2021 power rating. Meanwhile, South Alabama reached new heights not seen since moving to the FBS level. This game is close and perhaps South Alabama has a slight edge being closer to home, but the game is in the Superdome and will be nowhere near capacity. Take the points and trust WKU to score. The play: Western Kentucky+4.5 (5 units)

Western Kentucky 44 - South Alabama 23

Thursday, Dec 22nd

ARMED FORCES BOWL

Baylor vs Air Force (+3.5)

7:30 PM

Baylor and Air Force meet in the Armed Forces Bowl to end their seasons. Baylor had high expectations this year after winning the Big 12 a year ago. But, the Bears lost several close games and were blown out at home unexpectedly against Kansas State. Still, Dave Aranda’s defense is usually solid and Air Force will need to be at its best to run the ball as well as usual. The Falcons often thrive in bowls and the pairing of head coach Troy Calhoun and quarterback Haaziq Daniels has been terrific since Daniels arrival in Colorado Springs. Betting games involving service academies is tough and there often is little to no edge to be had. Wait to see how the spread moves off of the dead number before betting. The play: Pass

Air Force 30 - Baylor 15

Friday, Dec 23rd

INDEPENDENCE BOWL

Louisiana vs Houston (-7)

3:00 PM

The Independence Bowl features a decent matchup between Sun Belt member Louisiana and AAC member Houston. Louisiana had a good season considering the loss of head coach Billy Napier to Florida at the end of last year. The Ragin’ Cajuns had a terrible loss to in-state rival Louisiana-Monroe, but rebounded to a respectable finish. Their rating is nowhere near what it was under Napier, but the number is certainly higher than what it was before he arrived. Houston’s season was very disappointing as the Cougars were considered a conference contender before the year. However, those expectations were not met and head coach Dana Holgorsen really needs to turn things around to avoid a potential hot seat. Houston is likely playing near their bottom end level and at their best is much better than Louisiana. Meanwhile, the Cajuns’ quarterback is out. That is a tough spot. The uncertainty makes the edge here small and likely not worth a wager. The play: Pass 

Houston 23 - Louisiana 16

GASPARILLA BOWL

Wake Forest vs Missouri (+2.5)

6:30 PM

Wake Forest failed to meet overall expectations this season but that is likely due to the fact of how well Dave Clawson has done in Winston-Salem. The Demon Deacon program is significantly better than before the Clawson era and expectations are higher because of it. Still, Wake Forest only dropped about a field goal off its power rating over the whole season. Sam Hartman is a really good passer and the defense is solid enough to bend and not break when absolutely necessary (but not reliably enough). Missouri had a job saving season for Eli Drinkwitz. The coach was on the hot season before the year and likely got off of it. The defense improved dramatically and Missouri is at its highest power rating in some time. The spread has moved in Mizzou’s favor but Wake is still the better team. Update: Late money has come back on Wake Forest to push the spread to nearly a field goal. Hartman should be at his best in his final game before entering the portal or declaring for the NFL draft. Star receiver AT Perry is also expected to play Missouri has the ability to win this one outright as a dog so the edge is not huge but enough to lay under a field goal. The play: Wake Forest-2.5 (1 unit)

Wake Forest 27 - Missouri 17

Saturday, Dec 24th

HAWAI’I BOWL

Middle Tennessee vs San Diego State (-6.5)

8:00 PM

Middle Tennessee and San Diego State travel to Hawaii for a Christmas Eve bowl game. MTSU is not usually the most reliable in non-conference play, but the Blue Raiders defeated Miami on the road this season. San Diego State, for their part, is not usually a great team to back as a fav. Still, the opening line was clearly wrong: the spread shot up to minus-7 after opening minus-3. However, it could be even more. The Aztec defense is solid as always and Middle Tennessee’s passing attack could easily be shut down. The higher favorite dampens the edge, but it is still there.

The play: San Diego State-6.5 (3 units) 

Middle Tennessee 25 - San Diego State 23

Monday, Dec 26th

QUICK LANE BOWL

New Mexico State vs Bowling Green (-3)

2:30 PM

New Mexico State made a bowl purely by playing inferior opponents and securing a waiver due to a game canceled over the death of an opponent player. To be sure, the Aggies improved quite a bit in Jerry Kill’s first season in Las Cruces. However, Aggie quarterback Diego Pavia might be out and they do not have much else. Bowling Green exceeded expectations in 2022 thanks to great coaching by Scot Loeffler and the experience of quarterback Matt McDonald. This spread should be higher. Still, Bowling Green is not a great team and laying points with a less than stellar squad is not typically a good move. However, Bowling Green earned this spot and has high motivation. But, the edge is small for the aforementioned weaknesses. The play: Bowling Green-3 (1 unit) Pass at -3.5

New Mexico State 24 - Bowling Green 19

Tuesday, Dec 27th

CAMELLIA BOWL

Georgia Southern vs Buffalo (+6)

NOON

Georgia Southern’s past twelve months have been eventful. The Eagles hired a new coach in USC cast-off Clay Helton and welcomed in transfer quarterback Kyle Vantrease from Buffalo. Georgia Southern had a respectable showing in the Sun Belt and beat Nebraska in a non-conference victory that all but finished off the Scott Frost era. Buffalo lost to FCS Holy Cross and did not win a non-conference game before a five game win streak opened MAC play. A sixth win eluded the Bulls until defeating lowly Akron by one point in a game rescheduled due to massive snowfall in Buffalo several weeks ago. Obviously, Buffalo limps into this game. Helton is a better coach than Linguist and Georgia Southern has far better results this season than Buffalo. The spread is about right and there is little to no value to be had here. However, this game could be exciting and should be watched if you get the chance. UPDATE: The line has shot up to Georgia Southern minus-6. Clearly, a lot of money has come in on the favorite. Still, Buffalo is probably not as bad as people think. Then again, opt-outs and injuries piled up the last week or so for Buffalo. Letting this game go without wagering is still the play. 

The play: Pass

Buffalo 23 - Georgia Southern 21

FIRST RESPONDER BOWL

Memphis vs Utah State (+7)

3:15 PM

Memphis and Utah State meet up in the First Responder Bowl to end 2022. The Tigers are far below their typical level of performance and Ryan Silverfield has watched his team regress over the course of his tenure. Utah State started slow this year but slowly returned to expectations. The Aggies saw quarterbacks change and Blake Anderson’s offense seems to thrive with nearly any personnel. Memphis remains a better program, after all, the American is probably the best overall G5 in the long term (until it loses UCF, Cincinnati, and Houston next year). But, Utah State is no pushover as it showed with a bowl win last year over Oregon State. This spread is slightly too high and a fair edge can be had. UPDATE: Utah State running back Calvin Tyler, JR has opted out. The back ran for just over 1,000 yards this season. Still, running backs are typically not worth too much to the spread. So, wait and see if the spread goes back over a touchdown before betting on Utah State. The play: Utah State+7.5 (1 unit) 

Memphis 38 - Utah State 10

BIRMINGHAM BOWL

Coastal Carolina vs East Carolina (-7)

6:45 PM

This spread is about right. Besides, there is far too much uncertainty surrounding Coastal Carolina. The Chanticleers have announced that Defensive Coordinator Chad Staggs will coach the bowl game and quarterback Grayson McCall will play prior to entering the transfer portal. Meanwhile, East Carolina had a solid year but was inconsistent down the stretch. The Pirates defense is better than any Coastal faced in the Sun Belt. But, the spread is about right in most of the situations explored above. A hook on the high side of seven makes laying the favorite nearly impossible as the susceptibility to a backdoor cover is massive but ECU could be a buy at a spread under seven. Laying seven or under would not be the worst wager. But be warned, East Carolina can be sieve on the back end of the defense. Lots of passing yards allowed makes it tough to fully stop a team like Coastal. Therefore, no bet should really be made for now unless you like Coastal without Chadwell calling the shots. The play: Pass

East Carolina 53 - Coastal Carolina 29

GUARANTEED RATE BOWL

Wisconsin vs Oklahoma State (+4)

10:15 PM

This game has way too many opt outs and a lot of uncertainty with coaching to be bettable. Neither starter is expected to play and Wisconsin interim head coach Jim Leonhard will not be retained in the same capacity following the game. The spread is accurate if the regular players were all participating, but that is not the case. No accurate number can be posted given the realities of current day bowl seasons. The play: Pass

Wisconsin 24 - OK State 17

Wednesday, Dec 28th

MILITARY BOWL

Central Florida vs Duke (-3.5)

2:00 PM

Mike Elko pulled off one of the best first seasons as a head coach in recent years. Duke was downright terrible last season. Yet, Elko got this team to eight wins and nearly pulled off a few bigger upsets. UCF played around the lower end of its ratings range and still had a solid year reaching the AAC Championship game. The loss at Tulane was nothing to be ashamed of as the Green Wave are having their best season in this century. Anyway, the Knights have some roster issues and most importantly, questions at quarterback. The line has moved towards favoring the Blue Devils by two, but maybe wait until close to kickoff and see about getting a field goal on UCF. UPDATE (12/26): The line is now over a field goal in Duke’s favor. It is a high indicator that John Rhys Plumlee is either not playing or injured enough that it will greatly affect his play. However, a small bet on UCF getting over a field goal still offers some value. My power ratings favor the Knights at full strength by a full field goal, but I am not so sure I have adjusted Duke high enough and the aforementioned UCF quarterback situation obviously impacts the spread. This game should help determine how good Duke really is. UPDATE (12/27): The spread keeps fluttering around a field goal. Take points when it makes sense to do so and lay them otherwise. Under a field goal? Back the Blue Devils. Over? Take the Knights.

The play: UCF+3.5 (3 units)

Duke 30 - UCF 13

LIBERTY BOWL

Kansas vs Arkansas (-2.5)

5:30 PM

Kansas looks to finish off its magical season with a bowl win against SEC member Arkansas. Lance Leipold is the real deal and might be just the guy to turn things around in Lawrence. The defense will need to step it up to have a chance here. Arkansas has an okay defense and a solid experienced quarterback but opt outs have taken a toll. A worse than expected end of the regular season dampened 2022 for the Hogs, but the team is still pretty good. Remember, Arkansas nearly defeated LSU without starting quarterback KJ Jefferson about a month ago. Still, this game is tough to bet because of myriad variables. No strong opinion means no strong wager. The play: Pass

Arkansas 55 - Kansas 53 (3OT)

HOLIDAY BOWL

North Carolina vs Oregon (-13)

8:00 PM

Losing offensive coordinator Phil Longo and star wide receiver Josh Downs hurts North Carolina’s chances against a good Oregon team in the Holiday Bowl. The Tar Heels were highly overrated most of the season; a weak schedule partly created a deceiving record that had some considering UNC a CFP contender. Finally, the late season schedule cleared things up. Astute gamblers reeled in the profits. Meanwhile, Oregon had a solid season and was also a CFP contender until being upset at home by a surging Washington Huskies team. The Ducks then blew a big lead against rival Oregon State and stalled at the goal line to lose that game and miss the PAC-12 Championship. The spread is high here for sure. But North Carolina should still have sufficient offensive firepower to cover through the backdoor. The spread really should be closer to one score. But a blowout is not out of the question if Oregon comes ready to play and the defense fires on all cylinders. Those factors, combined with the missing pieces for North Carolina, make the edge smaller than it otherwise would be. The play: UNC+13 (1 unit) 

Oregon 28 - North Carolina 27

TEXAS BOWL

Texas Tech vs Ole Miss (-3.5)

9:00 PM

This spread is brutal. Ole Miss can contend with the best teams out there, yet the Rebels disappoint time and time again in let down games. Meanwhile, Texas Tech seems to play its best against superior competition. Throw in a field goal spread with a hook and you have a nightmare betting scenario. Far too many unknown variables are in play here to make this game worth betting. But, take a shot on Tech if you feel the Red Raiders carry over their late season momentum to the bowl. Otherwise, it is probably best to sit this one out. The play: Pass

Texas Tech 42 - Ole Miss 25

Thursday, Dec 29th

PINSTRIPE BOWL

Syracuse vs Minnesota (-10.5)

2:00 PM

Syracuse meets Minnesota in Yankee Stadium for the latest iteration of the Pinstripe Bowl. One of several bowl games played in Major League Baseball stadia, this special bowl should be a good one. Both teams have really sound rushing attacks and the ground will be chewed up for sure. Minnesota has several injury questions including at quarterback. Syracuse has form questions after suffering a long losing streak that was only ended by a victory over lowly Boston College. The Orange entered the rankings in the middle of the year only to immediately lose five in a row. Even the win at BC was close until the second half. Minnesota holds a clear coaching edge although Dino Babers has done acceptably for Syracuse against the spread in bowls. Syracuse should have somewhat of a homefield edge, after all, the game is in New York. However, Sean Tucker has opted out of the bowl after declaring early for the NFL Draft. Tucker’s absence is massive for the Orange and really changes the betting outlook. Staying away or backing Minnesota is probably the play now. But, the spread has adjusted accordingly. The play: Pass

Minnesota 28 - Syracuse 20

CHEEZ-IT BOWL

Oklahoma vs Florida State (-10.5)

5:30 PM

Brent Venables probably has more critics now in Norman now than he did in the summer. Yet, the Sooners really did not have that bad of a year all things considered. Oklahoma reaches a respectable bowl game with a big name opponent. Despite the opt-outs, the Sooners still have a shot at a nice win. Florida State improved a lot this season. The defense was much better and the offense appeared competent more than at any time in Mike Norvell’s tenure so far. The Seminoles beat the teams they should have and often pummeled far inferior competition. A three game losing streak (all three losses were to quality teams) was the only major hiccup this year. Those three losses were bookended by winning streaks of four to start and five to end. Quite a good season indeed! OU is better than its record and should put up a fight. This spread is just too high considering the programs involved. Florida State will have a solid case that they are actually “back” if they notch another win going away. The edge is quite sizable if you like the Sooners. This might be one of the bigger bets of bowl season given the full score. UPDATE (12/27): The spread has shot up to ten since opening around seven and a hook. OU is the value now as ten points is a ton for this caliber of program, even in a “down” year. UPDATE (12/29): Oklahoma has moved even higher to 10.5. Maybe I am missing something, but that is just too many points given the circumstances. The play: Oklahoma+10.5 (10 units)

Florida State 35 - Oklahoma 32

ALAMO BOWL

Texas vs Washington (+3)

9:00 PM

Texas and Washington meet in the Alamo Bowl this season. 2022 was a typical year for the Longhorns; which is to say, it was a crazy year filled with drama, second guessing, and overreactions. Nothing out of the ordinary in Austin. Washington’s season was a return to normal of sorts following the failed Jimmy Lake years. Kalen DeBoer got Washington back to a high level expected in Seattle. This game should be a Texas home game for all intents and purposes. The Horns have played this bowl numerous times and the crowd always turns out in favor of the burnt orange. However, Washington is not the typical PAC-12 pushover that will get dominated on the lines. The Huskies rely on a passing game led by the fantastic Michael Penix. Texas has numerous players possibly opting out. The line is a bit inflated even with those players. This spread was favorable for early bettors. Washington has a slight edge given the way the betting has evolved. Washington is the play all the way down to plus-3. UPDATE: Now that the line has gotten to three, Texas is worth a play if you already bet Washington at a higher number. Otherwise, cap the game and pick who you like. It should be a good one. The play: Washington+4 (1 unit) 

Washington 27 - Texas 20

Friday, Dec 30th

DUKE’S MAYO BOWL

Maryland vs NC State (-1.5)

NOON

Maryland looks to end a good campaign with a second consecutive bowl win. NC State will attempt to finish the season off positively after coming nowhere close to meeting preseason expectations. The Duke’s Mayo Bowl offers gamblers and viewers alike one of the closer matchups for this year’s bowl season. Mike Locksley has done tremendous in College Park while Dave Doeren stumbled slightly this season. For the most part, the Terps beat the teams they should have and lost the games in which they were underdogs. Taulia Tagovailoa is a fantastic passer and should be the best player in this game. Several of the Terps’ best receivers are out which could hurt the passing game. NC State will be without its original starting quarterback, Devin Leary, after he was hurt the second half of the year and entered the portal at the end of the regular season. NC State’s power rating plummeted over the course of the year; the Wolf Pack were expected to contend for the ACC Championship. However, poorer play than was expected mixed with key injuries and a disappointing season resulted. Still, NC State made a bowl and would beat Maryland at its best. Maryland played around its typical number most of the year and ended up about even with NC State and is about a field goal better after giving Ohio State a run for its money in November. Maryland can run away with this game if it plays to its best ability. That occurring seems likelier than NC State playing its best; but the edge is not incredibly high. Still, it is worth enough to put some money down on the Terps. The spread has moved to pick after opening with Maryland favored by a point and a half. Still, Maryland can win this game and has a decent edge. UPDATE: The line has moved decisively in favor of NC State. The Wolf Pack are now favored by one. Maryland’s talented receivers sitting out is obviously a game changer. The Terps strength is their passing game and NC State has a decent secondary. Staying away or buying back on Maryland could be the pick. The play: Pass

Maryland 16 - NC State 12

SUN BOWL

Pitt vs UCLA (-8.5)

2:00 PM

Pitt had a roller coaster of a year following its best season in decades. Sure, the Panthers lost their best passer since Dan Marino and the Biletnikoff winner, but the defense was still considered stout by all the prognosticators. That turned out to not be the case in the early schedule. West Virginia nearly won the Backyard Brawl in Pittsburgh and an OT home loss to Tennessee was somewhat surprising; it turned out to be far more impressive than thought at the time. Pitt loses quarterback Kedon Slovis to the portal; he was largely a disappointment anyway, and the Panthers played fairly with their backup regardless. Meanwhile, 2022 was an up and down affair for UCLA as well. The Bruins were playoff hopefuls midway through the season, but a loss at Oregon made things harder and an upset loss as double-digit home favorites against Arizona ended any hope of a CFP trip. The Bruins offense was explosive all season and even played acceptably in the losses. The real problem was that UCLA reached its ceiling. Higher expectations could not be realistically met, i.e. UCLA is about as good this year as they possibly could be given the current status of the program. Maybe the future is brighter, but for now, this is as good as it is going to get Westwood. Here, the line moved higher on the news of opt outs for Pitt. However, this may be a great chance to fade public sentiment. Sure, UCLA is good when they are on, but Pitt is much closer in ability even with the opt outs. The edge is not terribly big though because of said opt outs. However, a bet is still worth the time. Maybe wait until closer to kickoff and monitor the spread. Having said that, taking the points will be the play regardless. The play: Pitt+8.5 (2 units)

Pitt 37 - UCLA 35

GATOR BOWL

Notre Dame vs South Carolina (-3.5)

3:30 PM

Notre Dame takes on South Carolina in an interesting edition of the Gator Bowl. One of the older bowl games, the Gator Bowl has a history of quality matchups between teams just under the elite tier of teams in that year. This year is no different; Notre Dame showed it remains a high quality team even after a very rocky start to this season that had many questioning whether Marcus Freeman really was the best hire for the Irish head position. South Carolina rolled into the end of the season pulling off two much publicized victories of top ten opponents in Tennessee and Clemson. But for two puzzling losses (one at home to Missouri and a blowout loss at Florida), the Gamecocks had a pretty good season. This team is hot right now and is playing its best to handle a stout Notre Dame defense. Unfortunately, unknown variables fill this game with uncertainty. The spread would be about right with all participants involved, but opt outs, transfers, and coaching departures cloak this game with unpredictability. That is to say, no discernable edge can really be had here. If you got South Carolina getting plus-3.5 early than great, otherwise, maybe sit this one out. UPDATE (12/28): Lots more opt outs have decimated the rosters of both teams to the point of making this game a complete toss-up. No play here. The play: Pass 

Notre Dame 45 - South Carolina 38

ARIZONA BOWL

Ohio vs Wyoming (+2.5)

4:30 PM

Ohio and Wyoming meet in the Arizona Bowl. Both had decent seasons. Ohio went to the MAC title game but were denied the elusive victory (Ohio has not won the MAC since 1968), and Wyoming had a shot late in the season to make a trip to the Mountain West Championship but lost a chaotic game at home to Boise State. Bowl games often come down to coaching. Here, Craigh Bohl is a better coach than Tim Albins. Sure, Albins coached much better than expected in his second season, but Bohl has greater experience and crafts game plans that typically crush teams similar to Ohio. The Cowboys’ defense could realistically shut down Ohio, especially since the Bobcats will be without starting quarterback Kurtis Rourke who also missed the MAC Championship game. The ratings actually suggest Ohio is the better bet here, but they might be too low on Wyoming due to their style and they do not take into account Rourke’s absence. Without its top passer, this spread should be closer to favoring Wyoming by a field goal. Regardless, the edge is not tremendous but it is decent. The play: Wyoming+2 (1 unit) UPDATE (12/30): Wyoming is now getting 2 and a hook, which is likely attributable to their top four running backs sitting this one out. Still, Ohio quarterback Kurtis Rourke is out and the Wyoming defense is solid. Wyoming is still worth a small wager given the particular circumstances. The play: Wyoming+2.5 (1 unit)

Ohio 30 - Wyoming 27 (OT)

ORANGE BOWL

Tennessee vs Clemson (-5)

8:00 PM

Unfortunately, this game will be littered with opt outs, transfers, injuries, and coaching departures. Numerous starters will not be playing and Tennessee even lost its offensive coordinator to South Florida where he will be the head coach. The line has moved quite a bit and any value is likely gone unless you forecast a Clemson blowout win. The variables make that a bit too unpredictable. Therefore, no bet is advisable at the current spread. The play: Pass

Tennessee 31 - Clemson 14