WEEK 13: SATURDAY BETS

 WEEK 13 BETS

Betting Info as of 11/25 per Bovada; lines are listed with Home Teams

All Times are Eastern

Saturday, Nov 26th

Georgia Tech @ Georgia (-35.5)

NOON

Georgia can easily shut out a team of Georgia Tech’s level. The Bulldogs are cruising again this year. Despite the closer than expected win at Kentucky last week, Georgia remains the top team in the country. Georgia Tech has improved a bit as the year has dragged on, but the Yellow Jackets are still one of the worst P5 teams. You can lay the points and feel comfortable betting small, just in case Georgia is looking ahead to the SEC Championship game next week. The play: Georgia-35.5 (1 unit)

South Carolina @ Clemson (-14.5)

NOON

This spread is relatively fair. Clemson is the much better team and program overall. However, South Carolina’s form is terrific and they should put out their best effort. The Clemson offense has improved for sure, but turnovers remain a concerning habit. The hook really prevents this from being a bet on Clemson, but South Carolina’s overall season prevents a wager on them too. The play: Pass

New Mexico State @ Liberty (-24)

NOON

Liberty is justifiably a sizable favorite to lowly New Mexico State. The only thing keeping this from being bet is that the Flames seemed to top out hard a few weeks ago against UConn. Liberty played way below its level again last week when hosting Virginia Tech. Yes, NMSU is terrible. But, this spread is far too big to bother with this week. The play: Pass

West Virginia @ Oklahoma State (-8.5)

NOON

This spread is spot on. No bet. The play: Pass

Rutgers @ Maryland (-14)

NOON

Maryland is much better than Rutgers. The Scarlet Knights have barely improved over the course of the season. In fact, my power ratings have them at the same number they were before the season began. Meanwhile, Maryland has played around season expectations and looked terrific against Ohio State last week. Still, the Terps will likely be in a let down type of mood after the closer than expected loss. Additionally, Rutgers coach Greg Schiano seems to always coach well against Maryland. The spread is too high to back Maryland confidently, but if you like the Terps, a small play could still be smart. The play: Pass

Coastal Carolina @ James Madison (-14.5)

NOON

This spread is fair given Grayson McCall’s absence. The play: Pass

Georgia State @ Marshall (-6)

NOON

Georgia State has been really disappointing this season. The Panthers were expected to contend for the Sun Belt East but have been blown out repeatedly. The defense has been abysmal at times. Marshall has had a bit of an up and down season as well. However, the Thundering Herd have performed much better overall. Marshall already clinched bowl eligibility and Georgia State will be unable to do so. The Herd cannot make the conference championship but another win would be nice. Trust Marshall at home to win this one by a touchdown or even more. The play: Marshall-6 (10 units)

Old Dominion @ South Alabama (-15.5)

NOON

This spread is a bit high but ODU’s good defense will struggle on the road. South Alabama is the best team in the Sun Belt West Division and is fighting for hosting rights in the SBC Championship. The play: Pass

Western Kentucky @ Florida Atlantic (+8)

NOON

This spread is fair. No value here. The play: Pass

Michigan @ Ohio State (-8)

NOON

The 2022 edition of “The Game” (one of several traditional rivalries billed as such) will be held at Noon Saturday in the “shoe.” Ohio State comes in as one of the top two teams in the country by the vast majority of power ratings available online. Michigan comes in also possessing an undefeated record but slightly lower than the Buckeyes according to most ratings. In fact, Michigan is behind several other competitors who have losses on their records. Nevertheless, Michigan is 11-0 and ranked third in the CFP rankings. At the end of the day, that is what counts the most. Whether or not this is a de facto elimination game will be made readily apparent by the result and Tuesday’s new rankings. Time will tell. For now, Ohio State appears to be the better team. Michigan had a much weaker schedule and seemed to have more hiccups along the way than Ohio State. Blake Corum’s injury status is crucial for Michigan, but really, it might not matter at all. The Buckeyes’ defense is significantly better this season than last thanks to the wonderful work of defensive coordinator Jim Knowles. Michigan’s defense is still solid but might find itself on the field much more than it is used to. The spread opened minus-7 or minus-7.5 depending on the outlet and has since been bet up to minus-8. The Buckeyes are the real deal and should show it on Saturday. Michigan can be expected to try its darndest but will be overwhelmed at times. The play: Ohio State-8 (10 units)

Army @ UMass (+20)

NOON

This spread is accurate. No bet. The play: Pass

Kent State @ Buffalo (-4.5)

1:00 PM

Kent State has the ability to defeat Buffalo on the road even when experiencing a down year. Surely Kent State is not as good as they are normally. However, neither is Buffalo. The Bulls had an impressive MAC win streak that ended two weeks ago. Sean Lewis is a better coach than Maurice Linguist. That alone makes the Fast Flash the bet to make. The play: Kent State+4.5 (1 unit) 

East Carolina @ Temple (+10)

1:00 PM

The line movement here makes little sense. Yes, ECU got smacked at home last week by Houston. However, the Pirates are still much better than Temple. Temple has improved drastically in the last month or so though. This line movement is surprising and makes this game unbeatable unless you prefer the Owls. The play: Pass

Akron @ Northern Illinois (-10)

1:30 PM

Another accurate spread on Week 13’s slate of games. This is to be expected as different ratings inch closer and closer to congruity by the end of the season. The play: Pass

Rice @ North Texas (+14)

2:00 PM

This matchup can be looked at simply using ratings. Rice is playing to its typical high and North Texas is playing around its expected number for this season. Using that baseline, Rice should be getting only about eleven and a half points. The Owls are getting fourteen. Therefore, Rice is the play, albeit a small one. The play: Rice+14 (1 unit)

Louisville @ Kentucky (-3)

3:00 PM

Kentucky has played to expectations this season. Mark Stoops is a much better coach than Scott Satterfield. Kentucky is more reliable than Louisville. However, Malik Cunningham is electric and a top ten quarterback at his best. Kentucky’s defense is certainly good enough to give him fits and this game will not be remotely close if the Wildcats shut Cunningham down. Meanwhile, Will Levis is a good passer in his own right. Kentucky had some bad breaks this season and really had more of a shot at a second place finish in the SEC East than appears when looking at the win-loss record. The play: Kentucky-3 (10 units)

UAB @ Louisiana Tech (+17.5)

3:30 PM

This spread seems a bit high but Louisiana Tech is having a very down year. UAB at its best can steamroll the 2022 edition of the Bulldogs. Still, the spread is high and could fall prey to a backdoor cover. Either way, this game is far too unpredictable regarding the line. The play: Pass

Auburn @ Alabama (-22)

3:30 PM

Alabama remains one of the top teams in college football regardless of how many close losses they suffer. The Tide are capable of beating almost anyone, even in a “down” year. Auburn is having a down year of its own and rumors are swirling about who will be the next Tigers coach. Make this one easy: bet Bama but small. Alabama should win this one by about four scores. The play: Alabama-22 (1 unit)

Wake Forest @ Duke (+3.5)

3:30 PM

This spread is fair. However, if Duke plays its top effort they have every right to win this game. However, the same goes for Wake. The Deacons at their best are much better than the Devils. The play: Pass

Hawai’i @ San Jose State (-15.5)

3:30 PM

Hawai’i has improved enough to be out of the running for 2022’s worst team. To be sure, the Rainbow Warriors are not a good team, but improvement has been had. Meanwhile, San Jose State has sort of fluttered around its expected level. The Spartans are a good team but not solid enough to be confidently laid giving more than two scores. The play: Pass

Memphis @ SMU (-4)

3:30 PM

Memphis is having a bit of a down year. The Tigers offense is still respectable but Memphis has found itself nearer the bottom of the ACC standings than the top. Typically, Memphis is a contender for a NY6, but that standard has faltered each passing year under Ryan Sillverfield. SMU has perhaps the best offense in the conference and can score from anywhere on the field every drive. The Mustangs have topped out a bit this year after their big win over Houston a few weeks ago. SMU should win and cover if both teams play to their typical levels of just this season. SMU being home gives them a good advantage and the defense only needs a couple of stops to get the cover. Overall, SMU has been siginificanlty better this season than Memphis. The play: SMU-4 (10 units)

Troy @ Arkansas State (+13.5)

3:30 PM

Troy wants to host the Sun Belt Conference Championship game, but needs South Alabama to lose. In the meantime, the Trojans should take care of business against the Red Wolves. Arkansas State has been lackluster on both sides of the ball this season but has improved slightly as the year has passed. The spread is slightly too high and Arkansas State could keep it under ten at home to close out the season.. The play: Arkansas State+13.5 (1 unit)

UTEP @ UTSA (-17)

3:30 PM

This spread is accurate. No bet. The play: Pass

Illinois @ Northwestern (+14.5)

3:30 PM

This spread is high but Illinois has been terrific this year. The Illini defense is fantastic and could shut out Northwestern’s nonexistent offense. The Wildcats have been terrible when in possession this season and have not won a game since Week 0 in Ireland over the soon to be fired Scott Frost. Still, the spread is big and Pat Fitzgerald is an elite coach. Plus, Illinois might be in let down mode after a last second loss at Michigan last week. The play: Pass

Minnesota @ Wisconsin (-3)

3:30 PM

Wisconsin and Minnesota both suffered years that failed to come close to expectations. Plus, both teams are eliminated from winning the Big Ten West. Therefore, it is easy to say this game means nothing, but it is still a rivalry game. Expect both teams to be up for the game. The Badgers are just slightly better than the Gophers by a margin wide enough to justify laying the field goal in Madison. The bet should be small though as games between teams in this situation can sometimes not go according to logical form. The play: Wisconsin-3 (1 unit)

Purdue @ Indiana (+10)

3:30 PM

This spread is fair. Plus, there are many other games this weekend worth betting on. The play: Pass

Oregon @ Oregon State (+3)

3:30 PM

Civil War, or whatever it is called now, should be an outstanding game this weekend. Oregon can clinch a spot in the conference championship game with a win in Corvallis. Oregon State is as good as the Beavers have been in years and would love to ruin the Ducks’ weekend. The Beavers are good enough to be slight home favorites here. The spread seems to be based more on history than the facts of the present. The Ducks are a good team, no doubt. However, Oregon State is built like the perfect home underdog. The Beavers run the ball great, have experience all over the field, and they play super tough. This bet might turn out to be a gift. The play: Oregon State+3 (10 units)

Utah @ Colorado (+29.5)

4:00 PM

Utah is significantly better than Colorado. This is obvious and is reflected in the spread. Colorado is the worst P5 team in 2022 and it will be some time before the Buffaloes are back to a respectable level of play acceptable in Boulder. Still, this spread is large and Utah could easily be in a let down mode after last week. The play: Pass 

Michigan State @ Penn State (-19.5)

4:00 PM

This spread is fair. No value here unless you have Penn State as one of the top 7 or so teams in the country. The play: Pass

Iowa State @ TCU (-10)

4:00 PM

This spread is spot on. However, this game should be very entertaining. TCU will be making its case for a playoff spot, while Iowa State could make its entire season by defeating the final Big 12 unbeaten. The play: Pass

Louisiana @ Texas State (+5)

5:00 PM

This spread is accurate and a dead number. No bet. The play: Pass

Southern Miss @ Louisiana-Monroe (+3.5)

5:00 PM

This is a really tough spot. Southern Miss is better but Monroe is not the worst team in FBS. Laying three and a half on the road is dangerous in almost any matchup. Additionally, a backdoor cover is well within the realm of possibility here. Besides, the difference between the ratings and the actual spread is not enough to justify a bet given the hook on the high side of three. The play: Pass

Nevada @ UNLV (-12.5)

6:00 PM

This spread is fair. Nevada is terrible and UNLV is not good enough to justify laying double digits. No bet. The play: Pass

Appalachian State @ Georgia Southern (+5)

6:00 PM

Five is a dead number and the spread is accurate anyway. The play: Pass

Middle Tennessee @ Florida International (+19.5)

6:00 PM

This contest is similar to that of UAB @ Louisiana Tech. Therefore, this game is not bettable. The play: Pass

LSU @ Texas A&M (+10)

7:00 PM

This spread is probably fair. Regardless, this is a tough spot for LSU and Texas A&M is not remotely reliable as a wager this season. There are much better games on the board this week. The play: Pass

Central Florida @ Southern Florida (+20)

7:00 PM

This spread is dead on. No play. The play: Pass

Notre Dame @ USC (-4.5)

7:30 PM

USC has an opportunity to make a jump into the CFP if multiple things go its way over the next two weeks. First, the Trojans must defeat Notre Dame. The Irish have improved over the course of the season but the offense still is not to a standard typical for Notre Dame. Quarterback Drew Pyne is not close to a normal Notre Dame passer but could look decent against the sieve that is the USC defense. Clearly the Trojans main focus is on Lincoln Riley’s offense. Quarterback Caleb Williams has shot into the Heisman race and has a chance to go down as an all-time USC great if he can be the first Trojan passer to make the CFP. USC is clearly better than Notre Dame. The problem is whether or not the USC defense can prove it. Notre Dame’s defense is no joke and might be the best one USC faces all season. The numbers say USC is better by double digits. The line opened on the dead number of minus-5.5 but has been bet down a full point. Perhaps waiting to see how the line moves as kickoff approaches is the way to go. USC is a big bet if the number drops a little more. However, that might be out of reach this late in the week. Still, the Trojans want to defeat perhaps their biggest rival en route to a PAC-12 Championship. The play: USC-4.5 (10 units)

Tennessee @ Vanderbilt (+14)

7:30 PM

Tennessee limps into Nashville after last week’s beatdown in South Carolina. The Vols were absolutely clobbered last week, ending any hope at reaching the CFP without the SEC Championship in tow. Meanwhile, Vanderbilt looks vastly improved under Clark Lea and should continue the trend into this game. However, the Commodore defense will need to be light years improved to have a shot at winning this one. Still, better form gives them a chance to cover. Tennessee could easily suffer a let down but that is not a certainty. The jury is still out on how much better Vandy is and this might not be the time to bet without knowing for sure. The play: Pass

Oklahoma @ Texas Tech (+2)

7:30 PM

Fair spreads and bets do not typically go together. Here, Oklahoma deserves to be favored by under a field goal on the road and they are. Texas Tech is good enough to beat OU at home, but not good enough to be favored. Therefore, the Red Raiders getting less than a field goal at home is entirely appropriate. This game should be good, but is not a wise betting game. The play: Pass

Tulsa @ Houston (-12)

7:30 PM

This spread is accurate. The play: Pass

Syracuse @ Boston College (+10.5)

7:30 PM

This spread is fair and both teams are not reliable enough to wage on confidently. The play: Pass

Kansas @ Kansas State (-11.5)

8:00 PM

Kansas State might be the best team in the Big 12 over the last several weeks. The Wildcats are playing excellent football, particularly on offense. Star running back Deuce Vaughn is spectacular and wildly difficult to defend. K-State could run away with this one if Kansas’ offense is not able to match them step for step. Having said that, Kansas has had a fantastic season by its own standards and is a very dangerous dog. The spread got bet down slightly, and K-State could be worth a wager if it gets to minus-10. For now, the game is a pass. The play: Pass

Pitt @ Miami (+6.5)

8:00 PM

This game is not bettable. Both teams are far too streaky and unreliable. There are much better games on the slate this week. The play: Pass

Air Force @ San Diego State (+2)

9:00 PM

Air Force had high expectations for 2022. The Falcons had their eyes set on a Mountain West Championship. However, reality played out differently. Conference play was cruel at times and the Falcons were out of the running much earlier than anticipated. Meanwhile, San Diego State has improved as the season has gone along. The Aztecs lack a true quality passer and rely almost entirely on the defense. The ratings have the Aztecs favored at home, but fading service academies is a tough ask. Therefore, only a small wager can be placed. The play: SDSU+2 (1 unit)

Washington @ Washington State (+2)

10:30 PM

The 2022 rendition of the Apple Cup should be a good one. Kalen DeBoer has done a masterful job getting Washington back to an acceptable standard of play in only his first season. Meanwhile, Jake Dickert has continued a good level in Pullman. The Cougars have a real chance to win this game behind the talented Cameron Ward. In fact, Wazzu really should be a slight favorite at home. Yes, Washington has been great this year and quarterback Michael Penix is probably the best player on the field come game time. But, the teams are really close and the ending will be dramatic either way. Washington State is the bet, but the number prevents it from being a bigger wager. Plus-3 would call for a bigger bet, but plus-two keeps it a small one as it is off the key number. The play: Washington State+2 (1 unit)

BYU @ Stanford (+6.5)

11:00 PM

Rounding out the final week of the regular season is an interesting matchup between independent BYU and PAC-12 member Stanford. The Cardinal have suffered through yet another year that came nowhere close to meeting the standards David Shaw set almost a decade ago. Meanwhile, BYU also failed to live up to its own expectations. The Cougars are over a touchdown worse than their preseason rating. To be simple, the spread should be close to a field goal. However, Stanford just is not good enough to bet confidently. Thus, only a small bet is called for. The play: Stanford+6.5 (1 unit)