WEEK 11 SATURDAY BETS

 Saturday, Nov 12th

Betting Info as of 11/10 per Bovada; lines are listed with Home Teams

All Times are Eastern

Indiana @ Ohio State (-40.5)

NOON

No need to complicate this one. Ohio State might be the best team in the country. Indiana might be the worst team in the Big Ten by far. Bet the Buckeyes, but keep it small due to the massive number. The Hoosiers gave Michigan a tough time a few weeks back but Ohio State should be no nonsense all game after last weeks less than stellar performance against one win Northwestern. The play: Ohio State-40.5 (1 unit)

Oklahoma @ West Virginia (+8)

NOON

West Virginia needs a big win if Neal Brown is to keep his job. The Mountaineer faithful are getting restless. To be fair, WVU has never really fit in the Big 12 and recruiting has hurt because of it. Brown’s offensive schemes contrasted the pass happy conference and no big time wins have come in his tenure. The Sooners come into Morgantown off a tough loss at Baylor. OU should be motivated to get that bad taste from its mouth. Still, Brent Vanables’ defense has not been up to snuff and there could be a shootout saturday. Eight is a lot of points to be getting at home in conference. But, West Virginia is not the toughest squad ever and is prone to allowing covers through the back door, even as an underdog. So, only a small wager is appropriate. The play: WVU+8 (1 unit) 

Rutgers @ Michigan State  (-9.5)

NOON

Sparty games remain largely unbeatable even after the impressive win against Illinois last week. That game was littered with lucky plays that went Michigan State’s way. Rutgers is not a good football team. Sure, the Scarlet Knights have improved from when Greg Schiano came back for his second stint in Piscataway, but the Big Ten East is brutal. The play: Pass

SMU @ South Florida (+17.5)

NOON

How can SMU possibly equal last week’s incredible scoring? By playing USF; that’s how. Tanner Mordecai accounted for ten touchdowns in the all-time shootout. Meanwhile, South Florida lost to Temple… Jeff Scott was promptly fired as the embarrassing defeat was not only a blowout but continued an FBS losing streak extending into last year. In fact, the only USF win this season was over FCS Howard. Betting games with coaching changes midseason is wildly difficult. Besides, there are better games on which to wager. The play: Pass

Virginia Tech @ Duke  (-9.5)

NOON

Virginia Tech is having a rough go in Brent Pry’s first season. The Hokies are the worst they have been in a very long time. This team is near the bottom of the P5 and it might be a while before they escape. On the contrary, Duke is thriving in first year coach Mike Elko’s system. Both sides of the ball have improved and winning games has become expected almost overnight in Durham. What a turnaround. A bowl game has been clinched and now all that is left for 2022 is a rivalry game with North Carolina and a big game at Wake to end the season. The spread is fair here so no bet should be made. The play: Pass

Pitt @ Virginia (+4.5)

NOON

Pitt has really disappointed this season and failed to come close to preseason expectations. The offense never clicked and the defense just was not as tough as anticipated, especially against the run. The Panthers are likely playing around their floor. Virginia is finally scoring this season and hung with North Carolina for the vast majority of the game last week. Tony Elliott may finally have his offense working. Brennan Armstrong has the ability to keep this game within three and if everything goes right the Cavs might pull off a road win. Still, Pitt at its best could clobber UVA. Pat Narduzzi is a much better coach than Tony Elliott. Virginia is playing better but a bet on them is taking a chance that the offense shows up at a similar level to last year’s stellar output. The play: UVA+4.5 (1 unit)

Purdue @ Illinois (-6.5)

NOON

This spread is spot on. There is no value to be had when the spread is so accurate. The play: Pass

Liberty @ UConn (+14)

NOON

Liberty visits East Hartford giving two full scores to resurgent UConn. The Flames entered the conversation regarding who will represent the G5 in the NY6 with a massive win at Arkansas last week. Hugh Freeze is a top notch coach who can be bet on with huge reliability. UConn continues to climb the power ratings ladder to spots it has not seen in years. The Huskies need to win one of their final two games to secure bowl eligibility. Jim Mora seems to be just the right fit for the job and is already paying dividends. These independents are both playing around a touchdown higher than preseason expectations. That fact alone makes this game tough to bet. Liberty at its best could crush UConn at its worst. Even with UConn playing well, Liberty is a big step up and fourteen is probably a solid number not worth betting. The play: Pass

Notre Dame @ Navy (+15)

NOON (Baltimore, MD)

Service academy games are notoriously difficult to wager. Navy has improved since losing to Delaware early this season. However, the Midshipmen are not talented enough to hang with the likes of even a down Notre Dame squad. Hence, the triple option equalizes talent disparity. Still, the Irish have a stellar defense and come off a dismantling of Clemson. This game is very difficult to figure, and the pace will be affected by Navy’s methodical offense. The play: Pass

LSU @ Arkansas (+4)

NOON

A few weeks ago, Arkansas would have been favored in this matchup. The Hogs began the year a top ten team. However, an unreliable defense, a losing streak, and a loss last week to Liberty caused bettors to lower their opinions of the home team. This game is likely moreso a tossup. LSU looks fantastic, but have yet to really win convincingly away from Death Valley. Line play will be the crux of the outcome here. Arkansas should be focused after last week. The play: Arkansas+4 (10 units)

Missouri @ Tennessee (-20.5)

NOON

Missouri has been really impressive the last month or so. The Tigers most likely saved Eli Drinwitz job with the turnaround. The defense has allowed 27 or more only once this season back in week 2 and will need its best effort this week against an electric Vols attack. Tennessee faces a classic let down spot after suffering their first defeat last week at Georgia. Because of the solid Mizzou defense and the let down potential for Tennessee, this game is a pass. The play: Pass

Vanderbilt @ Kentucky (-18)

NOON

Kentucky is consistent enough to warrant laying over two scores over any team to whom the Wildcats are greatly superior. Will Levis is a very solid quarterback and the run game is top notch. Coach Stoops is one of the game’s best and typically has his charges focused. Vanderbilt has improved drastically under the guidance of Clark Lea, but the Commodores still have a ways to go. On ratings alone, Kentucky could win this by nearly 28 points. The strange spread and Vanderbilt’s improving form make a large bet prohibitive, but a play is still smart. The play: Kentucky-18 (1 unit).

James Madison @ Old Dominion (+7.5)

1:00 PM

James Madison has had poor results ever since entering the AP Top 25 for the first time. The Dukes have dropped three straight and now face intra-state rival Old Dominion. The Monarchs were shut out last week at home against Marshall, but they only allowed twelve points. The defense is solid. ODU has pulled off some nice upsets but the lack of an offense is concerning. Thus, only a small wager is appropriate here. The play: ODU+7.5 (1 unit)

Louisiana-Monroe @ Georgia State (-13.5)

1:00 PM

This spread is fair. The play: Pass

Temple @ Houston (-20)

2:00 PM

Temple is starting to actually look like a football team this season. The last few outings have shown tremendous improvement, especially moving the ball on offense. To be sure, the Owls are not good, but at least they have escaped the discussion for worst team in FBS. Houston’s disappointing 2022 continued with a wild high scoring loss last week at SMU. The Cougars defense was nonexistent in the loss but also did not give up THAT many yards, despite the 77 points allowed. Temple provides a massive drop in class, but Houston just is not good enough to warrant laying over two scores. The play: Pass

Rice @ Western Kentucky (-13)

2:00 PM

This spread is fair. There is no value to be had betting on either team in this matchup. The play: Pass

UMass @ Arkansas State (-17.5)

3:00 PM

UMass is the worst team in FBS. FIU had a case in the first half of the year, but the Minutemen have shown to be truly awful this season. Don Brown does not have even a poor quarterback. Instead, the Zoo has basically a lower division passer. The only talented player in Amherst is running back Ellis Merriweather who cannot gain yards due to defenses loading the box against him. Arkansas State could cover this spread but in no way is worthy of being bet as such a sizable favorite; even against the inferior UMass. The play: Pass

Charlotte @ Middle Tennessee (-10.5)

3:30 PM

This is a tough spread for two reasons. First, Middle Tennessee is practically a pass only offense that is much better being bet as an underdog. Second, Charlotte is terrible but has some puzzling results suggesting some talent is present. Bet Charlotte if you like them getting the points but be warned: Middle Tennessee can run up the score here if they want to. The play: Pass

North Texas @ UAB (-6)

3:30 PM

North Texas has been consistent in 2022. The Mean Green play to their expected level of performance almost every week. A trip to the CUSA conference title game is a real possibility and would be Seth Litrell’s top achievement in his tenure. Meanwhile, UAB has struggled without the fantastic Bill Clark at the helm. The Blazers have no shot at reaching the conference championship and have slowly but steadily declined as the season progresses. Still, the Blazers are rightfully favored at home, albeit by a few too many points. These teams are of relatively equal strength. However, Seth Litrell and his quarterback Austin Aune give the Mean Green the slight betting edge here. A seven point spread would make North Texas a large play. But the number has not moved since opening. The play: North Texas+6 (1 unit)

Louisiana Tech @ UTSA (-18)

3:30 PM

This spread is correct. There is value to be had betting this game. Louisiana Tech is having a tough go of it in coach Sonnie Cumbie’s first season in Ruston. The Bulldogs are playing to their expected level of performance. But, that level is now much lower than what it was only two seasons ago. Meanwhile, UTSA has taken the throne as the top team in CUSA. Jeff Traylor has transformed the Roadrunners into a respectable program. This game should not be bet because the teams are playing to their relative typical levels and no noticeable trends are occurring which is reflected in the accurate spread. The play: Pass

Maryland @ Penn State (-10.5)

3:30 PM

Maryland lacks an impressive win this season and while certainly improving the Terps have reached their ceiling. Taulia Tagovailoa is marvelous but turnover prone. Close wins over bad teams are not reassuring and Penn State will be the best team Maryland has faced since a seven point loss at Michigan early this year. Penn State has only two losses - both to teams in the CFP top four. Sean Clifford is definitely capable and should be able to throw for lots of vertical yards against the less than stellar Maryland defense. I expect Penn State’s defense to really hold Maryland in check. The Nittany Lions are a very good team who hung with Ohio State for a while. Winning out and getting to a better than average bowl game is within reach. The play: Penn State-10 (10 units) Line moved to -10.5 at writing (1 unit)

Northwestern @ Minnesota (-17.5)

3:30 PM

Northwestern showed some real heart against Ohio State last week. The Wildcats kept the Buckeyes’ offense in check, although Ohio State probably was less than focused in the let down spot after a big win the week before. Still, Northwestern looked like a different team than the one who lost at home to FCS member Southern Illinois. The Wildcats have not won since their season opening victory in Ireland against Nebraska. Minnesota has had an up and down year filled with injuries. The Gophers can run it down your throat but often do not score enough to warrant laying so many points. Their methodical pace limits possessions even against bad teams. Still, betting Northwestern is a tough ask, but it is the correct play. This is a ton of points and Pat Fitzgerald is still one of the country’s smartest coaches. The abundance of poor performances makes it so that betting big on Northwestern is unwise. The play: NW+17.5 (1 unit)

Appalachian State @ Marshall (+1)

3:30 PM

This spread is accurate. The Play: Pass

Central Florida @ Tulane (-1.5)

3:30 PM

Tulane is having its best season in decades. The fantastic win-loss record is largely due to Willie Fritz’s phenomenal coaching mixed in with an experienced quarterback and dependable defense. Mostly, the defense has been significantly better than anticipated. The Green Wave face the most salient game on the schedule since defeating Kansas State on the road in non conference play. The Green Wave must win to stay in the race for the G5 spot among the NY6 bowls. Meanwhile, UCF has had a pretty good season itself. The Knights’ only losses were in a nail-biter against Louisville and a disappointing showing at a surging ECU. So, both teams come in with good resumes. Both teams have good coaches (most Auburn fans would be happy with Malzahn still there as opposed to the Harsin saga). And, both teams are relatively close in power performance levels. To be clear, Tulane is in uncharted waves (pardon the pun). Central Florida has been at this level before and quite frankly is on its typical low end. UCF could beat Tulane with a typical performance. However, Tulane’s ceiling might still be unaccounted for. The Green Wave weekly beat the spread and but for a head scratching loss to Southern Miss, would be unbeaten. So, the spread is fair and Tulane might be a field goal or more better than the spread is giving them credit. Let’s find out. The play: Tulane-1.5 (1 unit)

New Mexico @ Air Force (-21.5)

3:30 PM

New Mexico has not met expectations this year. The Lobos struggle mightily to score and the defense has not been as good as defensive coordinator Rocky Long would like. It has been a long season. Meanwhile, Air Force has had Mountain West conference championship hopes dashed. THe Falcons were expected to contend for the title and even had an outside possibility of a NY6 appearance. However, reality set in after the last few losses: this would not be a special year in Colorado Springs. So, Air Force has the ability to cover this spread, but New Mexico still has one of the game’s best defensive minds calling plays on that side of the ball. Therefore, there is no bet to be made. The play: Pass

Miami @ Georgia Tech (-1.5)

3:30 PM

Raise your hand if you thought before the season that Georgia Tech would be favored over Miami this late in the season. If you are now staring at your device with one hand in the air then you are either a Yellowjackets fan or a liar. Nobody thought Miami would be this bad. The Hurricanes scored only three against rival Florida State and have trouble stopping the most meager offenses. Meanwhile, Georgia Tech is in the midst of a desperate run to get to six wins with a lame duck interim coach. Bowl eligibility is all but impossible with two wins needed and games against North Carolina and Georgia after this one. This game is not bettable. Neither team is capable of being relied upon. The play: Pass

Louisville @ Clemson (-7)

3:30 PM

Clemson is a classic buy on bad news spot. The Tigers are still the top team in the ACC despite last week’s throttle in South Bend. Remember, the Irish have a defense that rivals Clemson’s. The lack of a bonafide passer for the home team is worrisome. However, Louisville lacks a serious defense. Malik Cunningham is a fantastic athlete but he might have lots of trouble this week. At their best, Louisville is a back door cover level team against Clemson. Possibly suffering a let down is the only reason to be against Clemson laying seven here. However, this spread would be significantly higher if Clemson had lost to a Notre Dame team in its typical form. The Irish seem to be getting there. Plus, Clemson has no recent history of suffering let downs. THe Tigers are still a very good team and are always a threat to shut out an opponent at home. At most, Louisville will allow four or five scores. It is not obvious they can score three or four to cover. The play: Clemson-7 (10 units)

WIsconsin @ Iowa (+1.5)

3:30 PM

Iowa has not allowed more than thirteen points to anyone besides Michigan and Ohio State. That is incredible. This team would be a CFP contender if it had even the slightest bit of offense. Instead, the Hawkeyes looked downright pitiful for stretches this season when in possession. Wisconsin has had its own strange year that has fallen short of expectations. I am not sure they can score enough on the road at such a daunting defense to warrant being a road favorite - even at only minus-1.5. Iowa is the play knowing full well that they will struggle to move the ball. The play: Iowa+1.5 (1 unit)

Boston College @ NC State (-19)

3:30 PM

Boston College has been downright awful this season. Even when Phil Jurkovec has been healthy enough to play, the Eagles have no talent around him and wide receiver Zay Flowers. The line play is lacking and no real scoring threats have emerged. Meanwhile, NC State was already disappointing before quarterback Devin Leary was hurt. Now, a freshman is impressing but not enough to confidently back the Pack at double digits. Regardless, the spread is a fair number. The play: Pass

Arizona State @ Washington State (-8)

3:30 PM

Arizona State is nearly back to a level meeting preseason expectations. Still, the Sun Devils are a mess. The team is not good and is nowhere near the typical rating of the program. Washington State has improved all season long and may still not have reached its ceiling. Cameron Ward has been decent for the Cougars, but Washington State is probably not the best team to back as a fav. The play: Pass

Iowa State @ Oklahoma State (+1.5)

3:30 PM

Unfortunately, Spencer Sanders has been injured for Oklahoma State. It has shown in recent results. The Pokes season took a turn for the worst since blowing a second half lead at TCU despite defeating Texas the following week. OK State games really are not bettable at the moment. The play: Pass

Alabama @ Ole Miss (+11.5)

3:30 PM

This spread is spot on. Ole Miss needs a massive effort to defeat Alabama here. The Tide have not lost back to back games in the regular season since Nick Saban’s first year in Tuscaloosa. Overall, Alabama has not lost two straight since 2013 when they lost to Auburn and then Oklahoma in the Sugar Bowl. So does that mean a Tide win is a given? No, but the spread is fair and may even be a touch too low. Still, Alabama has appeared very vulnerable a lot of the season and Ole Miss would lose any shot at the CFP with a loss here. This game should be entertaining and should be watched, at least in part, because it might help form future wagers involving these teams. The play: Pass

Army @ Troy (-9)

3:30 PM

Army and Troy meet in one of the lower key games of Week 11. The non conference matchup is interesting though because Army really could use a second FBS win if they want to have a shot at a bowl, and Troy rides a six game win streak. In fact, the Trojans would be enjoying a streak going all the way back to week 2 if not for the Hail Mary loss at Appalachian State. Coach Jon Sumrall deserves coach of the year honors in the Sun Belt even if Troy has a slow end to the season. Army can keep it close enough to cover plus-9 but the lack of line movement obviates uncertainty about the true levels of these teams. Additionally, service academy games are very hard to bet. The triple option and slow pace change basic strategy to the point where vastly more talented teams can lose to the boys from West Point. The play: Pass

Nebraska @ Michigan (-30.5)

3:30 PM

Michigan has had lots of massive spreads this season. The lowly Nebraska Cornhuskers coming to town means another one is on the board this week. No need to belabor the problems and shortcomings Nebraska has faced in 2022. Michigan is aimed straight at Ohio State and wants to get back to the Big Ten Championship and CFP. This spread was bettable before it reached minus-30. Now, it is accurate and all value is gone. The play: Pass

South Carolina @ Florida (-8)

4:00 PM

This spread is relatively fair. It could be a touch lower, but South Carolina lost at home to Missouri and then did not blow out Vanderbilt. Their reputation right now is lower than it should be. Meanwhile, Florida is improving under Billy Napier but is still about a touchdown below what the Gators expected to be. South Carolina can win this game with its best effort and thus, should keep it close. The play: South Carolina+8 (1 unit)

Texas State @ South Alabama (-16.5)

5:00 PM

This spread is fair. The play: Pass

Washington @ Oregon 

7:00 PM

Georgia @ Mississippi State (+16.5)

7:00 PM

Georgia appeared to be as good as last season’s rendition for the first time this year. The Bulldogs dominated then no. 1 Tennessee last week. The offense is still not the greatest but who cares when you have the top defense. Georgia is a top two team and is nearly guaranteed a spot in the CFP. Mississippi State is a good team that is just a bit shy of being an SEC contender. The Bulldogs have yet to defeat one of the top SEC teams, or really even come close, in the Mike Leach era. Sure, Leach is a really good coach. However, he routinely gets out coached in games with elite opponents. Or perhaps, his teams just do not have the talent to match up evenly. Here, Mississippi State has the offense to cover the spread, but it will likely have to be through the back door. Regardless, fading elite favorites is not a great way to increase the bankroll. The play: Pass 

Kansas @ Texas Tech (-3.5)

7:00 PM

Both teams are looking to make seasons that were expected to be mediocre at best into special years. Kansas has skyrocketed in terms of expected performance level, while Texas Tech has played admirably in Joey McGuire’s first season as coach. This spread is brutal and is really only bettable if you like Kansas. Fading Tech at home is really tough as Lubbock is a tough home field. The play: Pass

Kansas State @ Baylor (-2.5)

7:00 PM

Dave Arranada is a fantastic big game coach and Baylor has benefitted from it since his hire. The Bears are terrific on defense and Arranda loves to blow out opponents whenever possible. Laying less than a field goal at home as the better team is a really good bet in college football. Meanwhile, Kansas State fell flat on its face last week against Texas. Baylor has not been embarrassed this year; their 3 losses were all by single digits. Kansas State has had issues at quarterback and will need to rely on the terrific Deuce Vaughn to have a shot here. Arranda should have a game plan taylormade for such a spot. The play: Baylor-2.5 (10 units)

Wyoming @ Colorado State (+8.5)

7:00 PM

This spread is fair and hovers too close to key numbers to be wagered on either way. Wyoming has played relatively consistently but is not the best program to back as a road favorite. Meanwhile, CSU is just so so bad. The Rams are having a really tough time going in Jay Norvel’s first season. They cannot be trusted. The play: Pass

Florida Atlantic @ Florida International (+15.5)

7:00 PM

FAU is not a good enough team to be favored by over two scores. FIU is not a good enough underdog to warrant backing. The Panthers are somehow 4-5 despite beating FCS Bryant by only one point in week 1. There are better opportunities to bet this week. The play: Pass

Texas A&M @ Auburn (-1.5)

7:30 PM

Texas A&M is a complete mess. The much anticipated Aggies have plummeted out of the top 25 rankings and their power ratings have dropped commensurately. The transfer portal will be littered with players fleeing College Station. Meanwhile, Auburn had a nice comeback in Cadillac Williams’ first game as interim coach. However, the comeback was for naught as Mississippi State won the game in overtime. Betting games between teams that are in such situations is not prudent. Besides, the spread is relatively fair. The play: Pass

Southern Miss @ Coastal Carolina (-5)

7:30 PM

This spread plummeted from minus-11.5 once news broke of Grayson McCall missing the rest of the season. It is really too bad. McCall is one of the special players in college football and may be worth even more than a touchdown to the spread. Do not bet games like this unless the quarterback situation is so dire that a blowout is almost assured. Here, USM might not be good enough to blow out the Chanticleers even without McCall. The play: Pass

North Carolina @ Wake Forest (-3.5)

7:30 PM

North Carolina has a slight chance of making the CFP. Such a chance was unthinkable before the season began. Even once it started, the Tar Heels were derided for having a soft schedule and needed some crazy plays to defeat Appalachian State. Yet, here we are. Mack Brown has his team sitting at 8-1 in November. A thirteen point home loss to Notre Dame is the only defeat thus far. Yes, the schedule has not been strong and North Carolina has caught teams at just the right time. However, the offense scores points. This week is the first real road test for the Heels. Wake Forest is really good at home and likely has last year's brutal defeat at UNC on its minds. Back to back losses were surprising to say the least. But, both the oddsmakers and bettors have been disciplined with this team: Wake is minus-3.5. The Deacons could win this game by over a touchdown and have not played THAT bad. Let’s see if UNC is ready for a massive road win that would have them shoot up the CFP rankings a bit more. I have my doubt. Wake is the better team and has been waiting all season for this game. Watch for Derek Maye to struggle in his first real road test as a college quarterback. The hook makes this not able to be bet more than a small amount. The play: WF-3.5 (1 unit)

TCU @ Texas (-7)

7:30 PM

This spread is spot on and there is no value to be had betting. Remember, just because a home is a big time one does not mean it has betting value. In fact, this is often the case because so much attention will be paid that the spread is more likely to be accurate. The play: Pass

Florida State @ Syracuse (+7)

8:00 PM

Syracuse’s dream season has completely fallen apart since losing on the road at Clemson only a few weeks ago. The Orange were subsequently manhandled by Notre Dame at home and then could not move the ball last week at Pitt. Certainly losing quarterback Garret Shrader did not help. Star running back Sean Tucker has been targeted by opposing defenses with a backup taking snaps. That cannot work against a stout Florida State defense. With Shrader, this line is more accurate around a field goal. Without him, more uncertainty arises. Therefore, this game is probably better off passed unless Shrader makes a miraculous game time improvement and starts. The Play: Pass

Cal @ Oregon State (-14)

9:00 PM

Oregon State can flat out run the ball. The Beavers had a shot at an impressive road win last week at Washington but could not get the job done. This week, Oregon State will need to break through a decent Cal defense to cover. The Golden Bears are in the midst of a five game losing streak and might be giving up on the season. The hot seat would probably have already ejected Justin Wilcox if not for the relatively lenient Cal administration. Still, the Bears do not typically lose by a lot and the offense has improved slightly. Oregon State could win this by about the spread or a bit more if they want. The Beavers are the bet but not a confident one. The play: Oregon State-14 (1 unit) 

Stanford @ Utah

10:00 PM

San Jose State @ San Diego State (+2.5)

10:30 PM

San Diego State plays its typical style of close games with good defense while the offense makes you want to pull your hair out. The lack of a legitimate passer held back the Aztec offense most of the season. Scoring 30 is almost out of the question and games will be low scoring for SDSU to have a shot at the win. San Jose State has a shot at the Mountain West title with only one conference loss. The Spartans have won two straight after postponing the New Mexico State game following the death of Camdan McWright in a car accident. This is the most difficult game left of SJSU’s schedule and has major implications. Brent Brennan is a slightly better coach than Brady Hoke and the Aztecs typically have a good home field advantage. An outright San Diego State win would not be surprising here. This bet could be a big one if the number gets to a field goal. The play: San Diego State+2.5 (1 unit)

Boise State @ Nevada (+21)

10:30 PM

This spread is fair. There is no value. The play: Pass

Arizona @ UCLA (-19.5)

10:30 PM

Arizona looks to continue improving with a trip to the Rose Bowl to take on a really good UCLA team. The Wildcats power rating has improved all year long and they are about a touchdown better than they were to start the season. Jayden de Laura is a large reason for the improvement. The offense moves the ball and scores many more points than the previous few seasons. UCLA is having a good year near the top of the PAC-12. The Bruins have but one total loss and can get to the conference championship game by winning out. Here, the spread is relatively fair but a tiny bit too much. UCLA can crush opponents lacking a serious defense. Arizona lacks a tough defense allowing at least 43 five times this season. The offense has a shot to keep it respectable but the lack of a real defense makes this a small bet or a pass. The play: Pass

Utah State @ Hawai’i (+11.5)

11:00 PM

Hawai’i is finally getting its act a tiny bit together under first year coach Timmy Chang. The Rainbow Warriors won an FBS game and got out of the basement in the FBS rankings. Still, Hawai’i is not a good team. It will be a long time before that is the case again. Meanwhile, Utah State has had a strange season filled with perplexing results. The Aggies are not a great betting favorite and the spread is wide open to a back door cover. The play: Pass