WEEK 10 SATURDAY BETS

 Saturday, Nov 5th

Air Force v. Army (+7)

11:30 AM (Arlington, TX)

This spread is spot on and no value can be had betting this game. The play: Pass

Tulane @ Tulsa (+7.5)

NOON

The magical season in New Orleans continues. Tulane is a handful of plays away from being undefeated; its only loss was a surprising defeat to Southern Miss. Tulane has played excellent defense had has an experienced quarterback on offense. Even more, Willie Fritz is one of the top coaches in college football. Meanwhile, Tulsa is underperforming this season as far as Philip Montgomery goes. Tulsa generally plays a touch better than they have this year. Week 10 provides the best chance for the Golden Hurricane to salvage its season. A win would be huge and the early action suggests Tulane is favored by just a bit too much. The ratings have Tulane favored by 10.5 so even at minus-7.5 the spread is not quite low enough to back the favorite. Fritz is likely struggling to keep his team focused as they have some big games in the coming weeks. The Green Wave must take care of business in Tulsa before planning any trips to the AAC championship game. The play: Pass

Iowa @ Purdue (-4.5)

NOON

It has been said so many times this year that if you do not know already you’ve had to have been under a rock that last three two months: Iowa has no offense. The Hawkeyes need to face teams with terrible defenses in order to move the ball. However, the defense is still terrific. Purdue has one of the smartest passers in the Big Ten and competes week in and week out. Jeff Brohm outdueled Kirk Ferentz in Iowa City last year and could do it again at home. The spread seems a touch too high, but the inability of Iowa’s quarterback(s) to throw the ball vertically (or at all for that matter) is a massive concern when playing capable opponents. The play: Iowa+4.5 (1 unit)

Ohio State @ Northwestern (+38.5)

NOON

There is likely some value on Northwestern in a let down spot for the Buckeyes, but the line is relatively fair and Ohio State could destroy Northwestern on its best day. The play: Pass

Western Kentucky @ Charlotte (+16.5)

NOON

This spread is roughly right and Western Kentucky has the ability to crush the likes of Charlotte. The 49ers are coming off their best performance of the year (a convincing win at Rice), but they lost outright to Florida International only two weeks ago. Therefore, no bet can be made on this contest. The play: Pass

North Carolina @ Virginia (+7.5)

NOON

North Carolina has not only outplayed expectations, but they have fooled fans and poll voters alike into thinking they are a legitimate threat to Clemson and the ACC title. Somehow, the Tar Heels are 7-1 and seem to be rolling towards Charlotte. However, the truth is that North Carolina has benefited from a very soft schedule and some fantastic luck to achieve a record that at first glance puts them in the top 25. Meanwhile, Virginia has not had a great first year under Tony Elliott. The Cavaliers have struggled to move the ball; Brennan Armstrong and the offense as a whole have seriously regressed this season. Still, this spread is far too much and the Virginia defense is capable of keeping it somewhat close. However, the lackluster UVA offense is a major concern preventing this from being a bigger wager. The play: UVA+7.5 (1 unit)

Minnesota @ Nebraska (+15)

NOON

The line movement in this game suggests heavy action on the visiting Golden Gophers. Minnesota bounces back and forth between good and bad performances and is not the most reliable team to bet as a favorite. The play: Pass

Maryland @ Wisconsin (-5.5)

NOON

Wisconsin has played respectably since the firing of Paul Chryst. However, the Badgers have not reached their typical worst level of performance. Maryland has played slightly better than expected and ups their own floor by hanging with much better teams and scoring lots on lesser teams. While Wisconsin could easily be favored by a touchdown or more, the spread is not desirable as 5.5 is a dead number. The play: Pass

Texas Tech @ TCU (-9.5)

NOON

This spread is spot on and there is no value available. The play: Pass

Kentucky @ Missouri (+1.5)

NOON

Missouri really plays to its competition. Kentucky faces a massive letdown game after getting clobbered in prime time at Tennessee. Kentucky can crush Mizzou on a good day. Missouri somehow beat up South Carolina on the road last week. Maybe Eli Drinkwitz has finally figured out how to get the most out of his Tigers. I do not believe it; yet. The play: Kentucky-130 (1 unit) 

Florida @ Texas A&M (-3)

NOON

At their best, the Aggies are capable of defeating Florida at home by more than a touchdown. However, Texas A&M has proven too unreliable so far this season and their rating is likely not dependable. The play: Pass

Georgia Tech @ Virginia Tech (-3.5)

12:30 PM

This spread is unplayable with the hook on the high side of three. The play: Pass

South Florida @ Temple (+3)

2:00 PM

South Florida and Temple battle it out for the basement of the American Athletic Conference. The Bulls have played much better than their abysmal record suggests; South Florida has but one victory and it was against FCS Howard. Temple has two wins and one of them is against an FBS opponent, albeit lowly UMass. USF is absolutely the better team and consistently plays to a much better level than that of Temple. However, South Florida is not a team that you would want to bet as a favorite on the road. Still, the power ratings suggest a South Florida victory by a touchdown or more. The play: South Florida-3 (1 unit)

Marshall @ Old Dominion (+3)

2:00 PM

This spread is fair. The play: Pass

Georgia State @ Southern Miss (-2)

3:00 PM

This spread is spot on. The play: Pass

Middle Tennessee @ Louisiana Tech (+2.5)

3:00 PM

This spread is fair. The play: Pass

Baylor @ Oklahoma (-3.5)

3:00 PM

The Sooners play like a different team depending on who is taking the snaps. Oklahoma has played well when Dillon Gabriel starts at quarterback. A three game losing streak seemed to ruin the season in Norman. However, OU can still make a decent bowl game while having a somewhat successful year in Brent Vanables first season at the helm. This spread is tough. By the numbers, Oklahoma could beat Baylor by a full touchdown or even more. But, Dave Aranda is a great game planner and can make offenses question their true talent level. Look for the spread to drop a little before coming back on Oklahoma late. Try and get less than a field goal if possible. However, minus-3 might be the best this ever gets. The play: Pass/bet OU-3 or less (1 unit)(4 units if -2.5)

UTSA @ UAB (+1)

3:30 PM

UAB might still be without quarterback Dylan Hopkins. They still can win this game outright. The Blazers nearly defeated UTSA in the AlamoDome last season but lost in the final minute. UTSA is not as good as they were last season but remains a formidable opponent at the top of CUSA. This game has the potential to be very good, but the potential for an absent Hopkins, and quite frankly, the lack of former coach Bill Clark, make this game only worthy of a small wager. The play: UAB+1 (1 unit)

Central Florida @ Memphis (+3.5)

3:30 PM

This game has all the markings of a home upset by a lesser team. UCF has questions at quarterback after John Rhys Plumlee got banged up last week against Cincinnati. Memphis is underperforming this season and provides a big let down opponent for UCF. The Knights surely will be basking in the glory of beating Cincinnati last week. Memphis can move the ball with ease at times but are not dependable. The play: Pass

Washington State @ Stanford (+5)

3:30 PM

Stanford would be a reasonable wager getting five at home against Washington State if they were a dependable team. They are not. David Shaw continues to get worse and worse as a coach. The play: Pass

Michigan State @ Illinois -16.5

3:30 PM

This spread would be considered much too high if only Michigan State was playing anywhere close to its typical level of performance. However, the tunnel incident last week has become a major distraction and players have been suspended. Possible criminal charges against players await. Therefore, this game is not bettable in any way. The play: Pass

Penn State @ Indiana (+14)

3:30 PM

This spread is fair and Penn State is in a massive let down spot after losing to Ohio State effectively ending their CFP and Big Ten championship hopes. Indiana is terrible but showed at home against Michigan. The play: Pass

Syracuse @ Pitt (-3.5)

3:30 PM

Syracuse needs a good showing to prevent their season from spiralling. The Orange are fully capable of bouncing back at Pitt after losses to Clemson and Notre Dame. For their part, Pitt has had a really disappointing season. Sure, a bowl is still possible, but the Panthers have come nowhere close to preseason expectations. The ratings have downgraded Pitt more than any other team this season with the exception of Miami. This game can absolutely come down to one or two plays. The play: Cuse+3.5 (1 unit)

New Mexico @ Utah State

3:30 PM

The game is off the board as of writing. The play: Pass

West Virginia @ Iowa State (-7)

3:30 PM

This spread is dead on. No value here. The play: Pass

Oklahoma State @ Kansas (+2)

3:30 PM

There are too many uncertainties regarding injuries in this game to make a confident wager on either side. The play: Pass

Tennessee @ Georgia (-8)

3:30 PM

This spread is spot on. Remember, just because a big game is on does not mean it has to be bet. Oftentimes the spreads on these massively hyped games are deadly accurate and a win or loss comes down to one or two plays of luck. The play: Pass

Oregon @ Colorado (+31.5)

3:30 PM

My ratings have this spread exactly the same as that being offered. Thus, no bet. The play: Pass

Liberty @ Arkansas (-13.5)

4:00 PM

Arkansas welcomes independent Liberty on Saturday. The Hogs are favored by nearly two touchdowns after the Flames took some action at plus-14 early in the wagering. Liberty is relatively well coached in terms of schemes and gameplan. But the Flames have the propensity to play to their competition. That should be a plus this week. However, Arkansas has played to its rating for most of the season and is generally a dependable team. Hugh Freeze is fantastic and just signed an extension. Talk of him returning to the Power 5 this offseason is circling on college football social media. Time will tell. For right now, Liberty could continue a very good season, record-wise, with a massive upset this week. Arkansas has the run game to make Liberty’s defense look foolish, but the Arkansas defense is not dependable. A small bet on the Hogs would be reasonable if the spread gets just a bit lower. For now, only a small bet if any is justifiable. The play: Arkansas-13.5 (1 unit)

Navy @ Cincinnati (-20.5)

4:00 PM

Navy games are inherently difficult to bet because the Midshipmen change the pace and complexion of a game when their triple option offense is working well. The main problem is that nobody knows when that is likely to occur. Cincinnati has the talent to win this game by more than three scores but also is coming off a massive disappointing loss that possibly ended their chances of reaching a second straight NY6 bowl. Therefore, this week is a big letdown spot. The play: Pass

South Alabama @ Georgia Southern (+4)

4:00 PM

South Alabama and Georgia Southern have both played significantly better than preseason expectations anticipated. Both teams have solid and smart coaches that know how to scheme. The South Alabama defense is significantly better than that of Georgia Southern. However, Georgia Southern is a good team at home and Kyle Vantrease has cut down on the interceptions. Expect a back and forth game and the Eagles will either win outright or hang on for dear life for the cover in the waning moments. Georgia Southern+4 (4 units)  

Florida International @ North Texas (-21)

4:00 PM

North Texas is a pure ratings play here. The Mean Green can win by over three scores if they want to but the defense is not the most reliable. Yes, FIU has played much better as of late, but the Panthers remain one of the worst teams in the country despite a 4-4 record. The play: UNT-21 (1 unit)

Texas State @ Louisiana-Monroe (pk)

5:00 PM

This spread is fair and this game is basically a coin flip as indicated by the spread. The play: Pass

Troy @ Louisiana (+5.5)

5:00 PM

The Ragin Cajuns’s quarterback might be out for this one so there is no play. The play: Pass

Houston @ SMU (-3)

7:00 PM

SMU pulled off a relatively unnoticed good win last week. Yes, the Stangs were favored on the road at a down Tulsa team. However, a game like that is oftentimes a massive trap for the visiting favorite. SMU led almost the entire game and the outcome was hardly in doubt in the second half. This week, Houston comes to Dallas for an in-state matchup. Houston has somewhat reached its likely bottom power level and SMU is not at its normal best. Still, the better quarterback will be home. The play: SMU-3 (1 unit)

BYU @ Boise State (-7.5)

7:00 PM

BYU had a chance at a very special season in 2022. However, results have not gone the Cougars way and performance has steadily declined since the earlier part of the season. Injuries have mounted and lesser teams have had their way against BYU, often in surprising fashion. So, BYU is likely near its floor in terms of power ratings under coach Kelani Sitake. As of now, the Cougars are playing about a touchdown worse than what was expected of them this season. On the other side of the field, the resurgent Boise State Broncos have discovered new life. The boys with the blue field have rattled off four straight wins after losing at UTEP on a Friday night in September. Hank Bachmeier entered the portal and the offense has been totally different since. Meanwhile, the defense has played well, even though most of the wins were against down teams or bad offenses. Even with the reversals in fortune, this spread seems too high. BYU can win this game at their best. The Cougars mauled a good Baylor team merely two months ago. However, the fact remains that BYU is reeling (four straight losses). However, that competition has been better than anything faced by Boise State. The play: BYU+7.5 (4 units)

Clemson @ Notre Dame (+5)

7:00 PM

This spread is fair. The play: Pass

Alabama @ LSU (+13)

7:00 PM

This spread is fair. LSU can cover if they play more reliably. Or, perhaps Alabama is not as good as all the power ratings estimate them to be; then LSU has a real chance to win the game. Definitely one to watch and probably not bet. The play: Pass

Texas @ Kansas State (+2.5)

7:00 PM

Kansas State is the clear bet here; at plus-3 that is. The spread quickly got bet down to plus-2.5. Texas is having a good year but Kansas State has looked phenomenal at times. The Wildcats are only a few unfavorable circumstances away from being undefeated, or having only one loss at worst. Texas is one or two plays away from beating Alabama for their part. This game features two of the top running backs in the entire country. Chris Klieman is an outstanding coach and gets way more from his players than the talent they possess. Steve Sarkisian is a decent coach but could get easily outdueled here. Expect a close game with the home team needing just one or two plays to go their way to get the win. The play: K-State+2.5 (1 unit) +3 (4 units)

UNLV @ San Diego State (-6)

7:00 PM

Certain teams tend to not fare as well as favorites. That has certainly been the case for San Diego State the last few seasons. Still, the Aztecs have a style of football that often overwhelms much less talented teams. UNLV does not have the worst talent but lacks any serious defense. The Runnin’ Rebels have overperformed this season but have seemed to top out the last several games. A ceiling has likely been reached. Meanwhile, San Diego State is hovering around its typical floor. Granted, injuries have plagued the Aztecs this season, but less than a touchdown seems low in this one. The play: SDSU-6 (1 unit)

Auburn @ Mississippi State (-13.5)

7:30 PM

Bryan Harsin was fired this week. Auburn might get smacked by Mississippi State or might play its best game of the year. That is too uncertain to put money down. The play: Pass

Florida State @ Miami (+7.5)

7:30 PM

Much to the liking of the Tallahassee faithful, Florida State and Miami have gone in polar opposite directions this season. The Seminoles are outperforming expectations while the Hurricanes are not going to come close to meeting theirs. Still, this spread is a bit high and Miami is home. Sure, Hard Rock Stadium is not exactly the best home field advantage, but Miami should be up for the game. The Hurricanes can win the game outright if they play their best. However, that is a big if. The play: Miami+7.5 (1 unit)

South Carolina @ Vanderbilt (+7)

7:30 PM

South Carolina’s season has taken a nosedive after getting embarrassed at home by Missouri last week. The Gamecocks offense was a no show and South Carolina had perhaps their worst outing of the season. Vanderbilt has improved slowly under Clark Lea but is still not quite bettable. Maybe that changes this week with a home upset over South Carolina. Still, South Carolina has the talent to win this one going away. The play: Pass

James Madison @ Louisville (-7.5)

7:30 PM

James Madison has come back to earth somewhat after a long winning streak to start its FBS membership. Louisville clobbered Wake Forest last week but is not the most reliable team and often plays to its opponent’s level. Additionally, the spread is a fair one. The play: Pass

Michigan @ Rutgers (+26.5)

7:30 PM

This spread is spot on. The play: Pass

Arizona @ Utah (-17.5)

7:30 PM

Arizona has improved this season and the quarterback is likely a huge reason why. Still, the Wildcats do not have the line play to contend with Utah in the trenches. The Utes seem to relish these bigger spreads from time to time. The home team could easily be favored by three full scores. The play: Utah-17.5 (1 unit)

Wake Forest @ NC State (+5)

8:00 PM

This spread is fair and the injury report makes it unplayable unless you really like Wake Forest. The play: Pass

UCLA @ Arizona State (+10.5)

10:30 PM

This spread seems a bit high ut UCLA at its best can demolish Arizona State. The play: Pass

Hawai’i @ Fresno State (-24.5)

10:30 PM

This spread is fair. No bet. The play: Pass

Colorado State @ San Jose State (-24)

10:30 PM

This spread is dead on accurate. The play: Pass

Cal @ USC (-21.5)

10:30 PM

This game was a decent spread at minus-19.5. Now that it has moved up to over three touchdowns it is no longer playable. The play: Pass