WEEK 9 BETS 

Betting Info as of 10/26 per Bovada; lines are listed with Home Teams

All Times are Eastern

Thursday, Oct 27th

Louisiana @ Southern Miss (-1)

7:30 PM

           The line movement has been very strange on this game. Yes, Louisiana has played extremely well the last few weeks and USM has been less than impressive lately. Still, both teams have seemed to have found normal levels of expected performance. Perhaps Louisiana has farther yet to climb. This game should show if that is the case. The play: Pass

Virginia Tech @ NC State (-13.5)

7:30 PM

NC State has the ability to destroy Virginia Tech this season. The Hokies are really underperforming in year one of the Brent Pry era. Improvement should come eventually, but perhaps not this season. The main reason not to bet NC State would be because quarterback Devin Leary is out for the year. Therefore, only a small wager is prudent. Think of it more along the lines of fading Virginia Tech than backing NC State. The Play: NC State-13.5 (1 unit)

Utah @ Washington State (+7)

10:00 PM

Utah has slowly creeped down in terms of its preseason power level. The Utes have not played up to expectations even with the last minute win over USC. Everything had to go just right to get by the Trojans at night in Salt Lake City. Washington State is no cake walk and coach Jake Dickert is excellent at muddying up games as an underdog. The play: Pass

Friday, Oct 28th

East Carolina @ BYU (-3)

8:00 PM

East Carolina visits Provo off of a big home win over UCF last week. The Pirates dominated Central Florida and looked the best they have been this season since nearly beating NC State in Week 1. ECU has mostly played to a consistent level this season. However, a road game at BYU is unfamiliar territory. BYU was throttled at Liberty last week. While a Flames win was not unthinkable, the blowout was surprising. Still, BYU almost always would be expected to win this game. A typical BYU low is better than a typical East Carolina high. The play: BYU-3 (4 units)

Louisiana Tech @ Florida International (+7)

8:00 PM

Neither of these teams are good enough to bet. Louisiana Tech is playing at a level much lower than just several seasons ago. Meanwhile, FIU is one of the bottom three teams in FBS. However, the Panthers have improved their play the last couple of weeks. Still, neither team can be backed with any confidence. The play: Pass 

Saturday, Oct 29th

Toledo @ Eastern Michigan (+6.5)

Noon

Toledo is likely the best team in the MAC this season. Last week, the Rockets blew a massive fourth quarter lead on the road at Buffalo. Eastern Michigan meanwhile, won a tough victory on the road at Ball State. The coaching in this game will be solid. The Eagles are playing better football but are still slightly below preseason expectations. The spread is a bit low but EMU is a tough out at home. Therefore, no serious wager can be placed. The play: Pass

Ohio State @ Penn State (+15.5)

Noon

Ohio State is possibly the best team in the country. The offense runs on all cylinders. THe Buckeyes put up the most points of any Iowa opponent last week since the mid 1990s. That is impressive. Granted, Ohio State had numerous short fields due to the inept Iowa offense. But, the Buckeyes still moved the ball with ease at times. Penn State stays home after a white out win over a Minnesota team relying on its backup quarterback. Penn State has the talent to keep this game inside the spread. The play: Penn State+15.5 (1 unit)

Boston College @ UConn (+7.5)

Noon

This spread is spot on. No value. The play: Pass

Oklahoma @ Iowa State (+1)

Noon

This spread is spot on. No bet. The play: Pass

Miami (Ohio) @ Akron (+8.5)

Noon

This spread is fair and there is no value. The play: Pass

South Florida @ Houston (-18)

Noon

Spread over three scores are much easier to analyze than through looking at the individual team statistics and past performances. Instead, look to see if the favorite is an elite team either in FBS or at least in its own conference. If it is not, look at whether the underdog is one of the worst teams that season. If not, the underdog may present good value. South Florida has performed better on offense this season. The defense leaves much to be desired and the Bulls only have won once so far in 2022 (against FCS Howard). Additionally, South Florida is on a backup at quarterback after Gerry Bohanan went down with injury. On the other side, Houston has regressed this season and lost a few games in the waning minutes. The Cougars’ best win came in a wild comeback against Memphis, and the team might be peeking ahead to next week’s matchup against SMU. This spread is high enough to warrant a small bet on the underdog with the expectation that Houston could cover going away if they play to their preseason expectations. The play: USF+18 (1 unit)

Georgia Tech @ Florida State (-24)

Noon

Georgia Tech’s quarterback situation is uncertain. This game could get ugly and a shutout is within the realm of possibility. Still, the Yellowjackets play slowly and had a mini-bye from playing last Thursday. There are better bets to make this week. The play: Pass

Notre Dame @ Syracuse (-2.5)

Noon

Syracuse looked great last week in a close loss at ACC king Clemson. The Orange defense is playing well but the box score revealed a game not as close as the final score. Clemson performed better by more than the six point margin of victory. However, Syracuse did manage to keep the game close and quite frankly blew a win. Still, Syracuse is currently performing the best it has under coach Dino Babers. Will the Orange be able to continue improving or have they reached their ceiling? This week could provide a solid gauge. Notre Dame is playing far below its usual standard, but the Irish did notch a sizable home win last week over Mountain West opponent UNLV. The Irish defense is good enough to slow down Sean Tucker and win this game. The line moved to under a field goal which is tough to take. Still, Notre Dame should truly be expected to win this game and at least a small bet on the boys from South Bend is justified. The Play: Notre Dame+2.5 (1 unit)

TCU @ West Virginia (+7.5)

Noon

Sonny Dykes has the Horned Frogs rolling with consecutive comeback wins. TCU has improved dramatically year over year with a new coach. The team has risen in the polls and might be primed for an upset loss. Meanwhile, Neal Brown has West Virginia playing to a disappointing, but expected, level so far this season. Still, the Mountaineers would have expected to be favored in this game just several weeks ago. The hook upwards of seven could prove critical here, but West Virginia’s poor performance last week leaves this game in the small bet category. The play: WVU+7.5 (1 unit)

Arkansas @ Auburn (+3.5)

Noon

This spread is spot on. No value. The play: Pass

Miami @ Virginia (+2)

12:30 PM

Miami has the talent to blow out Virginia on the road this week. However, the Hurricanes performance this year has been highly unpredictable and nowhere near where it was expected. The Cavaliers still have a solid defense but the offense has been pathetic; UVA only mustered 16 against Georgia Tech last week. Therefore, this game is too unpredictable to wage on with any significant confidence The play: Pass

Charlotte @ Rice (-16.5)

2:00 PM

Mike Bloomgren continues a fantastic season at Rice. The Owls are reaching a power level not seen in some time. How high can Rice climb. This week, Charlotte comes to Houston. The spread is high. Charlotte is terrible, but is Rice truly good enough to cover more than two full scores? I’ll wait and see how high to adjust Rice and not wager this week. The play: Pass

Rutgers @ Minnesota (-14)

2:30 PM

The status of Minnesota quarterback Tanner Morgan is uncertain as of writing, so this game is a pass. The play: Pass

Old Dominion @ Georgia State (-3.5)

3:00 PM

This spread is relatively fair. The play: Pass

North Texas @ Western Kentucky (-10)

3:30 PM

This spread is spot on. No value here. The play: Pass

Temple @ Navy (-13.5)

3:30 PM

Fading very bad teams is not a bad strategy when betting larger spreads. Here, Temple is one of the worst teams in the FBS this season. Navy has improved as the season has gone on. The Midshipmen are not good enough to back confidently though, even against the dregs of the AAC. Thus, only a small wager is in order. The play: Navy-13.5 (1 unit)

Illinois @ Nebraska (+7.5)

3:30 PM

This spread is fair and there is no value in this game. The play: Pass

Cincinnati @ Central Florida (pick)

3:30 PM

Betting games featuring predictable teams who typically play to a certain level is an excellent way to profit on betting college football games. Such teams rarely stray from their expected power levels. Finding these teams makes finding value against offered spreads all the easier. Cincinnati is having another good season, albeit not as great as last year, but that was to be expected. The Bearcats are still the frontrunner in the AAC but UCF is not close behind. The Knights have had a few head scratching games this season, but have generally stayed within the expected range of performance for a Guz Malzahn coached team. UCF should have its best crowd of the year and is fully capable of winning this game. Do not be surprised to see a game winning field goal at the very end of this sure to be entertaining contest. The Play: UCF pk (1 unit)

Northwestern @ Iowa (-11)

3:30 PM

Eleven is a difficult spread and it is a fair one for this matchup. The play: Pass

Florida vs Georgia (-22.5)

3:30 PM (Jacksonville, FL)

The Florida Gators are struggling through Billy Napier’s first season in charge. Florida started the year off well with a nice home win over the uber-hyped Utah Utes. But even since that, times have gotten tough. Florida is playing near what could be considered a basement level for the program as of late. Improvement surely is on the way in Gainesville, but not yet. Meanwhile, Georgia is playing to a high level as expected. Sure, the Dawgs are not as elite as last year, but they are still one of college football’s top teams. This spread is just a tiny bit too low and warrants a small wager on the favorite. The play: Georgia-22.5 (1 unit)

SMU @ Tulsa (+2.5)

3:30 PM

Both SMU and Tulsa have played as expected this season. Each has had consistent results with limited outlier final scores. Here, SMU should be favored by a little more than a field goal. The Mustangs have an above average passer and Tulsa has been the worst it's been in some time. However, SMU is in prime condition for a let down game after a nice comeback close loss to Cincinnati last week. That result surely took its toll on the Mustangs’ emotions. SO, only a small bet is in order despite the incorrect spread. The play: SMU-2.5 (1 unit)

Oklahoma State @ Kansas State (-1.5)

3:30 PM

The status of Kansas State quarterback Adian Martinez is unknown as of writing. Thus, this game is a pass for now. The play: Pass

Wake Forest @ Louisville (+3.5)

3:30 PM

This spread is fair. Louisville is erratic and could win this game if they show up in full force. Otherwise, Wake Forest has the ability to beat the Cardinals handily, even on the road. The big question is: which Louisville team will show up? That is not something I feel confident in answering. The play: Pass

Oregon @ California (+17.5)

3:30 PM

Both Oregon and Cal have played to their expected levels this season. Oregon has been good ever since the Week 1 shellacking it took at the hands of Georgia. Since then, the Ducks have won every game. Bo Nix is likely playing better than at any time during his seasons at Auburn. The Ducks have a real shot to win the PAC-12 and possibly sneak into the CFP. Time will tell. Meanwhile, Cal has had a bit of a see-saw season. The Golden Bears have a solid defense and have only allowed over 30 points once this season. Offensive woes are keeping Cal from winning more games. This spread is a lot and Cal has the potential to slow the game down enough to cover. An outright victory would be surprising and the loss to Colorado makes it impossible to bet more than minimum. The play: Cal+17.5 (1 unit)

New Mexico State @ UMass (+2)

3:30 PM

Let’s not waste too much time on this battle of the basement. Both of these teams are among the absolute worst in FBS. Looking at the power ratings can give a simple solution. UMass should be favored here, or at least the line should be pick em. However, UMass is so bad that only a small bet is justified. The play: UMass+2 (1 unit)

Missouri @ South Carolina (-3.5)

4:00 PM

Missouri lacks a good win this year. Granted, the Tigers played Georgia better than anyone else this season. Still, coach Eli Drinkwitz is likely on the hot seat and has yet to show the ability to get firmly off. South Carolina is playing up to a nice level this year. The Gamecocks are one win from attaining bowl eligibility. Mizzou is certainly beatable at home. Three and a half is a tough spread, given the hook on the high side of such a key number. Still, South Carolina’s worst is likely better than Missouri’s best right now. But, waiting to see if the spread drops to a field goal may prove prudent. Otherwise, only a small bet is warranted. The play: South Carolina-3.5 (1 unit)

South Alabama @ Arkansas State (+10)

4:00 PM

South Alabama has played most of this season at a level never before experienced in the time the Jaguars have been in FBS. They have come down from that high over the last few weeks. Meanwhile, Butch Jones is getting Arkansas State slowly but surely back to the level of several years ago. While there is lots of work left for Jones, the RedWolves should have the ability to cover double digits at home this week. The play: Arkansas State+10 (1 unit)

Kentucky @ Tennessee (-12.5)

7:00 PM

This spread is fair. The play: Pass

USC @ Arizona (+15.5)

7:00 PM

USC’s defense has not performed well enough to warrant backing the Trojans over two scores on the road. Arizona has improved a lot this season and is no longer one of the abysmal teams in FBS. Therefore, this spread is not one of the best on which to wager this weekend. The play: Pass

Colorado State @ Boise State (-27)

7:00 PM

This spread is fair. The play: Pass

Coastal Carolina @ Marshall (-2.5)

7:00 PM

Coastal Carolina has one of the nation’s best passers in Grayson McCall. However, the Chanticleers’ defense has been nonexistent at times this season. Coastal is nowhere near the level at which they performed the past two seasons. Meanwhile, Marshall has had a bit of an up and down season, but is overall a dependable program on the improve. Marshall is a solid bet here, but McCall has the ability to win almost any conference game. Thus, another small bet only. The play: Marshall-2.5 (1 unit)

UAB @ Florida Atlantic (+5.5)

7:00 PM

UAB has been this season’s most consistent team. I have adjusted the Blazers’ power ratings once through seven games. The respectable performance is all the more impressive considering the departure of legendary coach Bill Clark in the offseason. Meanwhile, FAU has languished under Willie Taggart. Taggart has made every program for whom he has been a head coach worse than when he arrived. This week’s number is a so-called “dead” number. Waiting to see how this spread moves, if it does at all, should provide an indication of whether or not this game is worth wagering on. Until that happens, this game is a no play. The play: Pass

Arizona State @ Colorado (+13.5)

7:30 PM

Neither of these teams are dependable enough to bet under almost any circumstance. Plus, this spread is fair. The play: Pass 

Baylor @ Texas Tech (-2.5)

7:30 PM

Spread of about a field goal (give or take a hook) can be analyzed easily using a three step process. First, which team can win the game. Here, both squads have past performances suggesting victory is totally possible. Second, look to the coaches. Dave Aranda is a wonderful coach that has fit right in at Baylor and made the Bears expect a trip to Arlington at season’s end. Joey McGuire has done fantastic so far in year one in Lubbock. The Red Raiders are performing much better than what was expected. Third, what does a solid set of power ratings suggest the spread should be? Here, my ratings have Baylor favored on the road by 2.5, instead of getting 2.5 as they are. Texas Tech might have even more room for improvement this year, so that tempers the bet size a bit. Still, a small bet on the Bears is not the most ridiculous wager. However, the spread might move to three and is worth the wait. The play: wait and see if Baylor can get to +3. 

Michigan State @ Michigan (-23)

7:30 PM

Michigan might possibly be playing better than it did last year when it won the Big Ten. Michigan State is playing far below the level it did last year. A lot of Sparty fans are wondering out loud whether the massive contract given to coach Mel Tucker may have been shortsighted and a bit too emotional. Regardless, Michigan is clearly the superior team in the state. The Wolverines have the ability to score upwards of 40 points on the vast majority of FBS teams. Do not expect Jim Harbaugh to go easy this week after last year’s loss in East Lansing. This spread is a bit too low and Michigan will essentially decide if it wants to cover or not. The play: Michigan-23 (1 unit)

Ole Miss @ Texas A&M (+2.5)

7:30 PM

Texas A&M at its best can defeat Ole Miss at home. However, the Aggies are such a mess right now on and off the field that their games are very difficult to bet. The play: Pass

Pitt @ North Carolina (-3)

8:00 PM

This spread is fair and neither of these teams are reliable enough to justify wagering. The play: Pass

Middle Tennessee @ UTEP (-1.5)

9:00 PM

Middle Tennessee visits El Paso in a fairly even matchup. The relative power of each team is represented by the close spread being offered. Both teams have played fairly consistently this season with few unexpected results. UTEP has underperformed ever so slightly but is playing well lately. Middle Tennessee throws the ball lots and is prone to offensive droughts. Utep should win this game and laying 1.5 is fair. The play: UTEP-1.5 (1 unit)

Nevada @ San Jose State (-24.5)

10:30 PM

This spread is fair; no value. The play: Pass

San Diego State @ Fresno State (-8.5)

10:30 PM

This spread is fair. The play: Pass

Stanford @ UCLA (-17)

10:30 PM

This spread is somewhat fair but some value might be here. However, Stanford looked terrible in its win against Arizona State last week. The Cardinal barely moved the ball and needed the entire 60 minutes to win by only one single point at home. Meanwhile, UCLA comes off its first loss of the season and letdown potential is massive. The play: Pass

Wyoming @ Hawai’i (+10.5)

MIDNIGHT

This spread is fair. Try your best to pass the Hawai’i test, but do not put your hard earned cash on either side. The play: Pass