WEEK 8 BETS: SATURDAY

Saturday, Oct 22nd

Indiana @ Rutgers (-3)

Noon

Indiana visits Piscataway to try and defeat Rutgers in a battle of the Big Ten East basement. The Hoosiers were not expected to return to their prior level of performance reached in 2020, but Indiana has failed to meet even the most tempered expectations. Meanwhile, Rutgers has absolutely met theirs. The Scarlet Knights are no longer a laughing stock, although they are still not contending for the division and would be happy with a mid-tier bowl invite at season’s end. Honestly, it is surprising to see Rutgers getting bet as field goal favorites. Perhaps the biggest reason is that Rutgers nearly defeated Nebraska two weeks ago, losing by one. On the other side, Indiana got fairly walloped by a Huskers team that was a mess at the time, albeit Rutgers played Nebraska at home and Indiana played in Lincoln. Still, is Rutgers really ready to play as a favorite at home? This game is best passed unless Indiana is getting more than a field goal. Until that happens, abstain. The play: Pass

Akron @ Kent State (-18.5)

Noon

This spread is fair. The play: Pass

Louisiana-Monroe @ Army (-6.5)

Noon

Louisiana-Monroe has outperformed expectations this year and might be getting its act together under Terry Bowden. Army has underperformed so far in 2022 and only has wins over FCS opponents. This spread is either spot on, or Army is much worse than usual. Line movement slightly suggests the latter. However, fading a disciplined triple option team should be done with extreme caution. The play: Pass

Kansas @ Baylor (-8)

Noon

Kansas is in territory not visited in over a decade. Despite back to back losses, the Jayhawks have performed better every week. Kansas scoring plenty of times at Oklahoma was unthinkable only a few short seasons ago. How high can Kansas get in 2022? Meanwhile, Baylor appeared to be headed to another Big 12 championship game appearance until losses to Oklahoma State and at West Virginia. Baylor may have already topped out this year or is having a short term skid. Either way, this game might be the perfect gauge of Baylor’s true level in 2022. The play: Pass

Iowa @ Ohio State (-29)

Noon

This spread is spot on and offers no real betting value. Still, seeing whether or not Ohio State’s offense is good enough to hang 30 plus on Iowa’s still daunting defense should provide some entertainment. The play: Pass

Syracuse @ Clemson (-13.5)

Noon

Syracuse is the darling of the ACC this year. The Orange are playing to a level not seen in Western New York in years. Sean Tucker is one of the nation’s top runners and the defense has been respectable. Meanwhile, Clemson has been criticized for underperforming on offense while the defense remains dependable as ever, save the Wake Forest game. However, Clemson is performing lower than what is typical during Dabo Swinney’s time at the school. Expect the Tigers to shut down Tucker and force Dino Babers to reach deep into the playbook. Perhaps the Orange are much better than ratings suggest and truly deserve the clout they are receiving lately. Let’s see if they can prove it. The play: Clemson-13.5 (4 units)

Cincinnati @ SMU (+3.5)

Noon

As has been said before, games with spreads of about a field goal are much easier to handicap than most seem to think. Three things can be examined quickly to see if such a spread offers any great value. First, which teams can really win the game outright; second, who should win the coaching matchup; and third, what do a solid set of power ratings have to say? Here, Cincinnati has won tougher games than a road trip to Dallas. SMU has played within expectations for this season but lacks a real defense. Cincinnati clearly has a coaching advantage here. There is no need to belabor that point. Lastly, my personal set of power ratings have Cincinnati favored by only 2.5 points. SMU would be a solid bet if I did not think Cincinnati had such a significant coaching advantage. Therefore, SMU can only be bet small. The play: SMU+3.5 (1 unit)

Houston @ Navy (+3)

Noon

Figuring out either of these teams in 2022 is a gigantic task. The spread is fair and betting games involving Navy is incredibly difficult. Therefore, no bet is advisable. The play: Pass

Duke @ Miami (-9)

12:30 PM

Perhaps no team has been more difficult to figure out this year than the Miami Hurricanes. The ‘Canes have not come close to reaching expectations and the offense has appeared abysmal at times despite having one of the most highly touted passers in the country. Still, Miami is traditionally a much better program than Duke. However, the Blue Devils have performed very well in Mike Elko’s first year in Durham. Duke appears to have reached its first ceiling under Elko, but that could absolutely change in the future. How far into the future is the real question. Miami is not reliable enough this year to back as a favorite over a score, regardless of program stature. Therefore, no bet here. The play: Pass

Toledo @ Buffalo (+7)

1:00 PM

Buffalo has improved dramatically since losing to FCS Holy Cross on a Hail Mary earlier this season. Their ratings might be far too low and this game should show their true level of power. Toledo is easily the best team in the MAC. The Rockets went on a massive run to come from behind against Kent State last week. Jason Candle is a very good coach and he might be on a watch list for some Power 5 jobs this offseason. There is not enough certainty regarding Buffalo to make a confident wager on this game. The play: Pass

Bowling Green @ Central Michigan (-6.5)

1:00 PM

Bowling Green has a surprising competitiveness this season. The Falcons are not great but are not a blind fade anymore. Central Michigan has competed nowhere close to their level last year. Additionally, star running back Lew Nichols is keyed by every team and no longer has favorable matchups in the box with which to run in open lanes. He may also be out this week with injury making this game not bettable. The play: Pass

Eastern Michigan @ Ball State (-2.5)

2:00 PM

This spread is fair. The play: Pass

Northern Illinois @ Ohio (+3)

2:00 PM

This spread is fair. The play: Pass

UNLV @ Notre Dame (-26.5)

2:30 PM

Neither of these teams have performed in a manner suggesting predictable future performance. Therefore, no bet can be made confidently on either team. The play: Pass

West Virginia @ Texas Tech (-6.5)

3:00 PM

West Virginia has improved under Neal Brown since his first season as head coach in Morgantown. The Mountaineers have played acceptably this year and have no bad losses. Texas Tech has done better than expected under first year coach Joey McGuire. The Red Raiders come in off of a bye and have Baylor (McGuire’s former employer) on deck. West Virginia is good enough to win this game on the road and should be a solid bet. Maybe Texas Tech has room to grow even more but that would likely happen farther down the road than in McGuire’s first season. The play: West Virginia+6.5 (1 unit)

Rice @ Louisiana Tech (+3)

3:00 PM

Rice is playing at a new high under Mike Bloomgren and the Owls may have peaked last week in the second half of their loss to Florida Atlantic. Favoritism on the road is a bit of a head scratcher here. Louisiana Tech is playing slightly better than preseason predictions but their level is somewhat unknown with a first year coach. The play: Pass

Northwestern @ Maryland (-13.5)

3:30 PM

There is no nice way to say it: Northwestern stinks this year. The Wildcats have not won a game since their Week 0 victory over Nebraska in Ireland. It turned out that win was not the most impressive. Nebraska took a nose dive and Northwestern has had a similar, if not worse trajectory, since. Pat Fitzgerald has years where he has talent that even he cannot get to play well. The masterful coach might have his worst team ever this season. Meanwhile, Mike Locksely is having his best season during his Maryland tenure. The Terps could crush Northwestern if the pass game gets going. However, star passer, Taulia Tagovailoa is a game time decision. The play: Pass

BYU @ Liberty (+7)

3:30 PM

The spread for BYU and Liberty has shot up since opening and suggests the Flames stand little chance with their backup passers starting. Last week’s squeaker over FCS member Gardner-Webb did little to help the Liberty’s power rating. BYU got somewhat beat up at home to Arkansas but still managed to score loads of points. This game is not bettable. The play: Pass

North Texas @ UTSA (-10)

3:30 PM

UTSA is again at the top of Conference USA in 2022. The Roadrunners are playing well and now have a solid expected range of performance under Jeff Traylor. Sure, UTSA is not as dominant as last year, but they are still winning games. Meanwhile, North Texas is a bit volatile. The Mean Green have results all over the map this season and are generally not reliable when playing better teams. However, this spread is roughly fair and little to no value would be had betting either side. The play: Pass

Florida International @ Charlotte (-14.5)

3:30 PM

This spread is spot on and no value is present. The play: Pass

Marshall @ James Madison (-12.5)

3:30 PM

Marshall really laid an egg last week against Louisiana. However, the Mean Green were driving to take a two score lead when the eventually benched Henry Columbi threw a first down interception into blatantly obvious double coverage. That play drastically changed the shape of the game. Still, Marshall lost outright as double digit favorites at home. James Madison lost for the first time in FBS last week in a back and forth game at Georgia Southern. Despite the loss, JMU appears to be a legitimate Sun Belt contender already. This spread is a bit strange and probably is not worth a wager given each team’s strange games last week. The play: Pass

Georgia Southern @ Old Dominion (-3)

3:30 PM

Georgia Southern has vastly improved under Clay Helton. The Eagles’ defense might not be the best and passer Kyle Vantrease might not be the most careful with the football, but Georgia Southern is performing better than expected. Old Dominion is also playing decent football. The Monarchs had a nice win to start the year over Virginia Tech, but that win looks less impressive each week. Still, the Monarchs have a good defense that is dangerous at home. This spread is just a tiny bit too high. Georgia Southern can win the game; Clay Helton is a more experienced coach than Ricky Rahne; and the ratings suggest ODU should only be favored by one. The play: Georgia Southern+3 (1 unit)

Western Michigan @ Miami (Ohio) (-6.5)

3:30 PM

Miami (Ohio) has performed even better than expected this season. The RedHawks’ defesen has performed admirably and the offense has been acceptable even after losing quarterback Brett Gabbertt for the season. Last week’s loss to Bowling Green was somewhat surprising, but Chuck Martin should have his team focused to take on the disappointing Western Michigan. The Broncos have performed relatively poorly in the last 4 weeks or so. Tim Lester has seemed to have lost his team this year. Western Michigan has head scratching losses and is nearly out of contention for the MAC already. Miami (Ohio) can shut down Western Michigan if they are focused. They should be after an embarrassing loss last week. The play: Miami (Ohio)-6.5 (1 unit)

Memphis @ Tulane (-7)

3:30 PM

Tulane has been fantastic this season outside of their head scratching loss to Southern Miss. The Green Wave sport a great defense and an experienced quarterback. Never mind head coach Willie Fritz. Fritz is one of the game’s top tacticians. Tulane is probably nearing its ceiling and likely has little room left for further improvement and have a grinding schedule the rest of the way. Meanwhile, Memphis has played under their typical power but can still score lots of points. Besides a week 1 loss at Mississippi State, Tulane will be the best defense Memphis has faced so far. Still, the spread might be just a smidge too short if Tulane is the real deal. We should start to find out this week if they are. The play: Tulane-7 (1 unit)

Boston College @ Wake Forest (-20)

3:30 PM

Boston Colege has played far below the level predicted before the season began. The Eagles lack talent outside of quarterback Phil Jurkovec and receiver Zay Flowers. The Eagles are off a bye and play rival (sort-of) UConn next week. Wake Forest looks solid again this year and their only loss was to Clemson in double overtime. The Demon Deacons have played to their typical level under the wonderful Dave Clawson. Perhaps no coach does more with less talent than Clawson. Here, Wake could win this by three or four scores and a cover could come down to Wake’s first half alertness ,or, conversely, the back door for Boston College. To be clear, Wake is far superior and should cover if they want. The play: Wake Forest-20 (1 unit)  

UCLA @ Oregon (-6)

3:30 PM

This spread is fair. However, UCLA might be the best they have been since Chip Kelly became head coach. UCLA might cruise if that is the case. The play: Pass

Texas @ Oklahoma State (+6)

3:30 PM

First things first, Oklahoma State quarterback Spencer Sanders status for Week 8’s game against Texas is up in the air. Head coach Mike Gundy gave vague statements regarding injuries at Wednesday’s presser and rumors over Sanders’ injury status likely affected the late money last week. Still, OK State covered against TCU and really should have won the game outright. Here, the earlier line movement than last week suggests Sanders might not play this week. So, this preview will be written with the assumption Sanders plays. If he does not play, then the game is a pass. Gundy has the Pokes playing slightly below their typical level. Although, that seems to be the case for most teams this year. Conversely, Texas is playing its best football in a while. Even with a blown lead loss at Texas Tech, Texas has played well so far this year. However, the Longhorns possibly topped out when they nearly defeated Alabama early this season. Therefore, Oklahoma State would typically be favored at home in this spot. So, The Pokes are the bet (that is, if Sanders plays). The play: OK State+6 (1 unit if Sanders does not play; 4 if Sanders plays)  

Ole Miss @ LSU (-2)

3:30 PM

Ole Miss has played to a number much lower than their place in the AP poll suggests. The Rebels have a shot to show they deserve a top ten spot with a big win in Baton Rouge. LSU has bounced up and down so far this year and some stability must be shown before the Tigers can be either backed or faded. The play: Pass

Purdue @ Wisconsin (-2.5)

3:30 PM

Wisconsin can handily beat Purdue, that is, if Badgers play to their ceiling. Wisconsin has been a tough nut to crack in 2022. The season has been a roller coaster ride featuring the relatively surprising firing of Paul Chryst. The team has been up and down all season and is a difficult team to back at the windows. Meanwhile, Purdue is a handful of plays from being undefeated. Jeff Brohm is a really creative coach who should rarely be counted out. Aidan O’Connell is the real deal as a passer and scares the heck out of secondaries. Still, Purdue rarely has the overall talent to compete on the road at Wisconsin. Therefore, this game is unbeatable but should still be enjoyable to watch. The play: Pass

Florida Atlantic @ UTEP (+4)

4:00 PM

Florida Atlantic has not performed as well as most prognosticators had predicted. Though, some college football followers did not expect much from a team coached by Willie Taggart. The Owls are talented but typically struggle to execute against good teams and generally do not benefit from a well coordinated game plan and in game coaching decisions. UTEP has a decent coach in Dana Dimel. Dimel is more creative than most coaches but his team lacks talent to be a true CUSA contender. Here, the Owls are playing around a number expected and the Miners have not met preseason expectations. Still, the four points might be a gift when the fourth quarter rolls around. The play: UTEP+4 (4 units)

Vanderbilt @ Missouri (-14)

4:00 PM

Vanderbilt has shown vast improvement this year. Clark Lea has the ball rolling and a bowl game could be in the cards within two seasons. For now, Vanderbilt still has work to do. Missouri has played better defense this year than last, but wins have not come. Mizzou absolutely needs to beat Vandy to have any realistic shot at reaching a bowl game. The Tigers are worth a small bet on talent difference alone but nothing more. Vandy has improved enough to the point where a win here would not be a total stunner. There are better games to bet. The play: Pass

Arizona State @ Stanford (-3)

4:00 PM

Arizona State has played better since firing Herm Edwards and has covered the last two spreads. The Sun Devils likely will not match what they could have been this season. To be fair, those in the know projected a down year in Tempe. Meanwhile, Stanford is coming off the program’s biggest win in a few years. Yes, Notre Dame is having its own down year; winning in South Bend is still a big deal. The Cardinal had not won at the Irish in six years. Stanford has a nice quarterback and is playing at a level within the range of acceptable performance in recent years. The play: Stanford-3 (4 units)

Hawai’i @ Colorado State (-5.5)

4:00 PM

Neither of these teams are bettable. Both are bad and are not dependable. The play: Pass

Arkansas State @ Louisiana (-6.5)

5:00 PM

Arkansas State is playing to its highest level so far under Butch Davis. Some serious improvement might be just around the corner. Louisiana is also bouncing back to a higher level than earlier in the year, albeit nowhere near how high they performed under former coach Billy Napier. The uncertainty around these teams makes betting this game very difficult. The play: Pass

Southern Miss @ Texas State (+2.5)

5:00 PM

Southern Miss has a slight edge in power ratings here. The Golden Eagles seemed to sleep through the first 50 minutes of last week’s one point win over Arkansas State. Laying points on the road, even against a poor Texas State team might not be the best bet. Besides, Texas State has shown some recent improvement and the spread is relatively fair. The play: Pass

San Jose State @ New Mexico State (+21.5)

6:00 PM

21.5 is a brutal number for this game. San Jose State is a significantly better team than New Mexico State and could clobber the Aggies on their best day. However, the Spartans might be let down after losing to Fresno State in Week 7. The spread is too big to back comfortably. The play: Pass

Fresno State @ New Mexico (+10.5)

6:30 PM

Neither team has the reliability on which to wager confidently. Fresno lost to UConn, but then defeated San Jose State. Meanwhile, New Mexico has a very good defense, but the lack of a serious offense is highly concerning. The play: Pass

Mississippi State @ Alabama (-21)

7:00 PM

This spread is fair and there is no value at the offered number. It will be interesting to see how Alabama rebounds from its loss at Tennessee. Most years, the Crimson Tide bounce back after a regular season loss. Interestingly, Mississippi State has been Alabama’s opponent the week after a regular season loss several times in the last several years. The play: Pass

Boise State @ Air Force (-2)

7:00 PM

Boise State has not performed up to program standards. However, the Broncos have looked better since quarterback Hank Bachmeier entered the transfer portal. Still, coach Andy Avalos needs to improve his team a lot to get them undisputedly back atop the Mountain West. Meanwhile, Troy Calhoun continues doing a wonderful job at Air Force. The Falcons are playing to their best numbers in years and are often favored by double digits against lesser teams. The line movement is coming in favor of Boise. Perhaps Avalos’s team is better than previous performance has shown. Air Force has slightly struggled with better teams this year but should still be able to win this contest. The play: AFA-2 (4 units)

Texas A&M @ South Carolina (+3)

7:30 PM

Texas A&M has played well at times and downright terribly at others. The Aggies are loaded with young talent and will be near the elite of college football in due time. For now, they are a very respectable program that should make high paying bowl games. South Carolina is a decent program finding its place under second year coach Shane Beamer. The Cocks are generally a tough out at home and Texas A&M provides a fair test to see at what level Beamer has his team in year two. The Aggies look like a good bet at minus-three, but that is not enough of a difference from what my ratings have the spread. I’d take A&M at pick or even minus-1. The play: Pass  

Minnesota @ Penn State (-4)

7:30 PM

Minnesota and Penn State arrive at Week 8 off of big let down losses. Minnesota looked pedestrian on offense against Illinois’ superb defense and quarterback Tanner Morgan might not play due to injury. Penn State was stifled for the majority of its loss at the Big House. Penn State would be a nice bet if there was more certainty regarding how they will come out following a loss that greatly tempered expectations for the Nittany Lions. James Franklin must show he can control his charges' emotions and focus to stay on path to what can still be a big season in Happy Valley. On the other side, PJ Fleck is an excellent coach who faces a similar situation with his team. Will Minnesota be able to run on Penn State even close to as well as Michigan did? Will Penn State be able to resurrect a defense that was playing well prior to last week? Those two questions alone make this game difficult to predict with enough confidence to wager confidently. Therefore, no bet will be made. The play: Pass

Central Florida @ East Carolina (+5)

7:30 PM

Five points is possibly the deadest of dead numbers. It is not a great spread to bet either way since the oddsmakers likely have no solid opinion on the game and bettors probably are split or likewise cannot make up their mind enough to wager significantly. The play: Pass

Kansas State @ TCU (-3.5)

8:00 PM

TCU begins Week 8 as the final undefeated team in the Big 12. The Horned Frogs had a heart stopping win at home in Week 7 against Oklahoma State. The Toads came back from down 16 in the second half to win overtime. Sonny Dykes has done as well as possible in his first year at TCU. Therefore, TCU might play even better in the future, or might be reaching its short term peak right now. Kansas State is one bad loss to Tulane away from being unbeaten as well. However, the Tulane loss looks better and better as the Green Wave have a very good season. Both TCU and Kansas State have exceeded expectations this year and are hovering around the same power ratings. Therefore, this game could easily be decided by a field goal. Both coaches are good, both teams are fully capable of winning outright, and ratings suggest K-State is of the same power as TCU. The play: Kansas State+3.5 (1 unit)

Colorado @ Oregon State (-23.5)

8:00 PM

Colorado is perhaps the worst Power 5 team in 2022. Even with last week’s home win over California, the Buffaloes still cannot be considered any better than the bottom of P5 teams. Maybe the firing of Karl Dorrell energized the team, but Colorado will remain bad this season. Oregon State is playing good football and controls the line of scrimmage better than maybe anyone in the PAC-12. Besides losses to Utah and USC, the Beavers have won each game by running the football and relying on smart game management at quarterback. This one could get ugly given the varying strengths and weaknesses present. The play: Oregon State-23.5 (1 unit)

Pitt @ Louisville (-2.5)

8:00 PM

This spread is spot on and neither team plays to a consistent level on which to rely when wagering. The play: Pass

Utah State @ Wyoming (-4.5)

9:45 PM

Line movement has taken away any value on this game. Wyoming possesses a stout defense and a great home field advantage. Meanwhile, Utah State is not a reliable team and has had a roller coaster of a season so far. The play: Pass

Washington @ California (+7.5)

10:30 PM

This spread is spot on and there is no value in betting either side. 

San Diego State @ Nevada (+7)

10:30 PM

Neither of these teams are bettable at the moment. The play: Pass