WEEK 7 BETS: WEEKNIGHT GAMES

    This week, we are going to try something different here at College Football Betting. More focus is going to be on why bets are sized the way they are and more of the gambling perspective of betting college football. Traditional handicapping remains important, but sports betting success is far more the result of proper betting. Making good bets will always be of more importance than handicapping. In fact, one can be a terrible handicapper but still come out ahead in the ledger by making smarter bets. This is something that is hardly mentioned in the onslaught of recent gambling media (looking at you twitter, ESPN, FD, DK. I could go on). So, without further ado, let's look at week 7 bets for the weeknight games.

Wednesday, Oct 12th

Louisiana @ Marshall (-10.5)
7:30 PM

    Marshall opened Sunday night as a seven and a half point favorite. The spread has since skyrocketed to over ten. Such steam is warranted as Marshall has performed pretty well this season, its first in the Sun Belt, while Louisiana has regressed in its first season without Billy Napier. The spread is still large, but the ratings favor Marshall heavily in the weeknight game. Most bettors likely still have the Thundering Herd rated highly due to their win at Notre Dame; the Irish have looked somewhat better the last couple games. But, Marshall has shown some weaknesses since the Notre Dame win. The Ragin’ Cajuns play a style that shortens the game but overall performance has kept their rating lower than any point in the last 4 seasons. Line movement and the spread itself suggests both the bookmakers and bettors are either very high on Marshall, very low on Louisiana, or both. Laying over a touchdown in a conference game necessitates a large discrepancy between the teams. We might have that here. However, the spread is still large and getting a full grasp on the true power of Marshall and Louisiana is not entirely certain. Therefore, only a small wager is in order. The play: Marshall-10.5 (1 unit)

Thursday, Oct 13th

Baylor @ West Virginia (+3.5)
7:00 PM

    Baylor visits West Virginia as 3.5 favorites. Several facts make this game unbettable. Firstly, the ratings have Baylor favored by the same amount as the spread. Secondly, backing road favorites in weeknight games at tough locations is not a great bet over the long term. Remember, betting should be done with an eye towards the long run. Gamblers will come out ahead if enough smart bets are played over and over again. One game should not matter in this regard. So, in this case, Baylor might win this game and win it easily. However, Baylor-3.5 is not a good bet to make in the long run. Likewise, West Virginia is not good enough to warrant a wager as a home dog in this spot. Sure, power ratings vary from one source to the next. Here, it seems that most bettors with adequate numbers have shunned this game for reasons similar to those espoused here. Therefore, the game is a pass. The play: Pass


Temple @ Central Florida (-23.5)
7:00 PM

    UCF is laying over three full scores against Temple on Thursday night. The Knights are one of the better G5 teams and power ratings are reflecting that. However, this spread likely has more to do with how pitiful Temple is. The Owls are way below their typical rating which is not shocking considering they have a first year head coach with no prior experience as a head man and the team lacks any serious talent beyond maybe the quarterback who is average at absolute best. Large spreads are tough to bet and usually only the best of the best can be taken as favorites. Additionally, teams that are among the worst in college football can be blindly faded with some regularity. The spread has bounced back and forth and despite UCF seemingly hitting its stride, the ratings may not be fully representative of these two teams. Plus, the line moved down and 23.5 is not a fantastic number to lay (although 24 is more of a key number than you might think). Throw in possible motivation levels of the two squads and this bet becomes tougher. UCF has a massive coaching edge and a shutout is not out of the question. Still, laying this many points on a non-elite team is not the best bet to bet. So, only a small bet is in order despite any large discrepancy between ratings and the offered number. The play: UCF-23.5 (1 unit)

Friday, Oct 14th

Navy @ SMU (-12.5)

7:30 PM

Games including service academies are particularly difficult to wager because the usual triple option attack can render ratings useless. A more subtle approach is needed to examine whether or not this type of game is bettable. Here, Navy has been playing significantly better than at the beginning of the season, yet is still getting 12.5 points at SMU. The Mustangs come off a rescheduled game on a weeknight that did not go well. These facts suggest that power ratings of the participants might be volatile at the moment. Too many question marks make this game unbettable and money would be better spent elsewhere. Having said that, if your own power ratings have SMU over three scores better than Navy, a small wager could be in order. My own ratings have SMU favored by less than that. The play: Pass

UTSA @ Florida International (+33.5)

8:00 PM 

Another very large spread is on the board early in Week 7. UTSA is a top end G5 program and their numbers have clearly reflected that. Conversely, FIU is barely competing at the FBS level. Suffice it to say, the large spread is warranted. The roadrunners are not as good as last year, meaning, their current power rating is lower. The number is still high for a CUSA team, but would not beat the top of the G5. FIU is the worst team at the FBS level. This spread is not really near a common key number. My own ratings have the Panthers getting “only” 29 points here. However, backing historically bad teams is not wise gambling. I get the vibe that most of FIU’s current roster is probably playing football for fun while enjoying attending college in South Florida. There is nothing wrong with that. However, in the world of sports betting, such an attitude leads to a poor rating. The play: Pass