WEEK 7 BETS: SATURDAY GAMES
WEEK 7 BETS: SATURDAY GAMES
Miami (Ohio) @ Bowling Green (+7)
Noon
Favorites missing their quarterbacks are really difficult bets. Miami (Ohio) is missing Brett Gabbert but is coming off a great win over Kent State. However, Bowling Green has shown some competitiveness this year. This game is big for the Falcons and they will likely go all out. Bowling Green has an experienced quarterback and coach Scott Loeffler is not the worst at crafting a game plan. Still, Miami (Ohio) is a much better program and could pull away late in the game. The RedHawks would be the bet if not for the missing quarterback and the chance at a let down game. The play: Pass
Old Dominion @ Coastal Carolna (-11.5)
Noon
This spread is dead on accurate. Therefore, no bet should be placed. The play: Pass
Auburn @ Ole Miss (-14.5)
Noon
Auburn is the clear bet to make when they travel to Oxford as two touchdown underdogs in Week 7. That would be the easy case if they were not a complete mess with no viable passer and had rumors swirling left and right regarding the future status of coach Bryan Harsin. Auburn would be very bettable if not for those two facts. But, those things are true. My numbers have Ole Miss only favored by 11. Thus, Auburn can only be bet with the smallest of bets. Another reason for defaulting to a small wager is that I fear I may have Ole Miss underrated. The play: Auburn+14.5 (1 unit)
Iowa State @ Texas (-17)
Noon
Texas might possibly be an elite team this year. However, they have a long way to go to prove that. Iowa State has a good defense and Matt Campbell is a good coach. Good coaches are almost always good bets in the long run. Iowa State winning this game would be a bit surprising. However, 17 points is a lot for the Cyclones with the defense they put on the field. A good bet is appropriate anytime a spread is 3.5 off from one’s power ratings. The line shot up a bit early in the week and it seems Iowa State is being bought back at the inflated number. The play: Iowa State+17 (4 units)
Kansas @ Oklahoma (-9)
Noon
Upstart teams often fall hard to traditionally better programs just when the spotlight is shining bright. Kansas fell victim to that situation last week losing at home to TCU with ESPN’s College Gameday on hand. The Jayhawks did not embarrass themselves though and had chances to win the game despite losing the electric Jalon Daniels to injury during the game. Oklahoma has loads of questions regarding injuries and the state of the program in general. If OU was their normal selves, a bet on the Sooners would be smart here. However, this game has too many questions and betting on it might be the exact wrong answer. The play: Pass
Minnesota @ Illinois
Noon
Games where both teams have critical injuries stopping major players from seeing the field need to be avoided unless deep enough into the year to where a new reliable rating can be produced. Otherwise, avoid betting these types of games. Here, Minnesota and Illinois both have major players sidelined. Unless you think Minnesota would win this game without its star running back and against Illinois’ normal starting quarterback, you should stay away. The play: Pass
Penn State @ Michigan (-7)
Noon
Elite teams are often excellent bets when favored by one score or under. The underdog is often overrated and has yet to be exposed as merely a good team instead of elite. The underdog can keep it close for a while, but the favorite’s class should win out in the end. Michigan appears elite again this year. Yeah yeah, they are not as good as Alabama or Georgia, but those two are in some sort of class above elite. Ohio State is there as well this year. Regardless, Michigan plays a style of football that is reliable for bettors. Penn State is a very good football team. The Nittany Lions have played great this year, but are they elite? They easily could have lost at Purdue, and the Auburn win is looking less impressive each week Auburn embarasses itself. Assuming one’s power ratings favor Michigan by more than the offered spread, either a small bet is in order (if the difference is one or two) or a regular size bet is in order (if the spread is way off). Here, my ratings have Michigan by almost two full scores. Therefore, a regular sized wager is in order. The play: Michigan-7 (4 units)
Central Michigan @ Akron (-13.5)
Noon
Central Michigan would be a solid bet as a somewhat large favorite over Akron if not for several things. First, the Chippewas have not been reliable this year, probably because every opponent is keying its defense on stopping Lew Nichols III. Second, MAC road favorites are not the most dependable bet. Granted, Akron is terrible. However, this bet is not even worth a small wager. The play: Pass
Miami @ Virginia Tech (+7)
12:30 PM
Bets on uncertain games where no solid opinion can be given available information is pure gambling. You’d be better playing the pass line at a craps table. Teams with volatile recent performances offer tough odds that don’t come close to reflecting true outcome possibilities. Here, Miami is a complete mess and has lost three straight. Virginia Tech might be even worse in Brent Pry’s first season as head coach for the Hokies. Therefore, no bet should be made on this game. The play: Pass
Buffalo @ UMass (+17)
1:00 PM
Buffalo’s seventeen point favoritism is bordering on the realm of being a massive spread. Buffalo is not an elite team by any means. However, UMass is an atrocious football team near the very bottom of FBS. The Minutemen lack even a competent quarterback and have no real offense. Still, my ratings have Buffalo only favored by eleven, but backing UMass is too much to stomach. The play: Pass
UConn @ Ball State (-9.5)
2:00 PM
This spread is correct. Spreads like this are not bettable. The play: Pass
California @ Colorado (+15)
2:00 PM
As said elsewhere here, laying massive favorites is really only great in two spots: when backing an elite favorite, or when fading a really terrible team. California is a solid team but cannot move the ball enough to warrant extreme favoritism in most cases. Meanwhile, Colorado is possibly the worst power 5 team in 2022. The Buffaloes fired coach Karl Dorrell last week. Therefore, there is just enough uncertainty surrounding the program to make this bet prohibitive. The play: Pass
Kent State @ Toledo (-7.5)
3:30 PM
Toledo is the best MAC team this year and has to be the midseason favorite to win the conference. Kent State is a solid squad with a smart coach. The Golden Flashes have played a brutal schedule so far and it only continues facing Toledo on the road. My ratings have Toledo by two full touchdowns, but Kent State can score quickly via its patented Fast Flash offense. If the spread dips below seven it would be worth a bet. Until then, the game is a pass because MAC favorites are generally unreliable. The play: Pass/Toledo at anything less than -7 (1 unit)
Arkansas @ BYU (+1.5)
3:30 PM
Games with lots of line movement around pick are among the most difficult to wager. BYU opened a 3 point favorite and the line almost immediately moved to favoring Arkansas by 1.5. My ratings have this game at pick em. Waiting to see how the line moves late would be prudent and passing this game is probably going to end up the way to go. However, if the line manages to climb to 3 in favor of Arkansas, buying back on BYU would become the play. For now, no bet. The play: Pass
Northern Illinois @ Eastern Michigan (-2.5)
3:30 PM
Either of these football teams is fully capable of winning this MAC showdown. Thomas Hammock is a better coach than originally thought but still provides plenty of head scratching decisions. The Huskies have benefitted from loads of luck the last couple of seasons and it appears to finally be wearing off. Meanwhile, Chris Creighton is a good coach but his Eagles are unpredictable one week to the next. This game is a tossup and maybe taking the points on NIU is a bargain. However, I would only bet small and would need to get a full field goal to back Northern Illinois, especially if quarterback Rocky Lombardi remains sidelined. The play: Pass
Western Kentucky @ Middle Tennessee (+8)
3:30 PM
Taking over a touchdown at home on a team that is competitive facing a non elite opponent is usually a great spot that calls for a normal to large wager. Here, Middle Tennessee fits this situation exactly. The Blue Raiders are an up and down type of team that can be caught at just the right times to be a good bet. Western Kentucky is a good program, no doubt, but the Hilltoppers are not of the elite variety that must be feared each week, nevermind when on the away side of the scoreboard. My ratings have Middle Tennessee as only a 4.5 point underdog. Therefore, with a 3.5 point difference, a regular sized bet can be placed with sufficient confidence to know it is a smart bet win or lose. The play: MTSU+8 (4 units)
Texas State @ Troy (-16)
3:30 PM
16 points is a large spread to bet on teams that are just rounding into form and may be overperforming their true power. Troy has surprised in 2022 with first year head coach Jon Sumrall. The Trojans are a good team but are likely overperforming relative to their actual strength because their results have been good but not spectacular. Texas State is a very bad program but just pulled off a large upset over Sun Belt king Appalachian State. This spread is fair and Troy is not a reliable enough favorite to back at such a high number yet. The play: Pass
Ohio @ Western Michigan (+1)
3:30 PM
Passing a game is a good idea when a line moves suspiciously in a manner that is surprising. Ohio is having a fairly bad run since Frank Solich left as head coach. Western Michigan is a decent program but has struggled to find its footing this year. Still, the Broncos are likely much better than Ohio. However, the line has gone from favoring WMU to favoring Ohio. This line movement does not make sense on the surface. Therefore, passing the game is advisable. The play: Pass
Charlotte @ UAB (-23.5)
3:30 PM
Again, when betting a large spread either the favorite needs to be elite or the underdog needs to be one of the worst teams in FBS. Here, UAB might not be an elite team this year but is absolutely an elite program in CUSA. Meanwhile, Charlotte might not be the absolute worst team in FBS but might be the worst in CUSA. The 49ers have shown some life this year but will likely wilt under the superiority of a tough running team like UAB. Additionally, my ratings have UAB favored by 24.5, so a small bet is acceptable with 24 being somewhat of a smaller key number as the larger spreads go. The play: UAB-23.5 (1 unit)
NC State @ Syracuse (-3.5)
3:30 PM
NC State is catching points because quarterback Devin Leary might not play after suffering an injury in last week’s victory over Florida State. Leary’s potential absence explains the spread. Normally, betting a road favorite in conference against a fair team is never a smart bet. Here, there is a large unknown variable that makes betting this game difficult. The play: Pass
Oklahoma State @ TCU (-4)
3:30 PM
Betting games around a field goal largely comes down to three things: who can win the game, the coaches, and power ratings. There is no need to over complicate these games. Pundits get hung up on all sorts of stats instead of simply looking at the relative strengths of each team and the situation of the game itself. Here, Oklahoma State is fully capable of winning the game outright. Mike Gundy is the better coach, not that Sonny Dykes is bad by any means. Plus, my ratings have OK State as only a 2.5 point underdog on the road. A regular sized bet would be in store if I had OK State as a favorite. However, since TCU is still a deserving favorite, only a small bet is suitable. The play: OK State+4 (1 unit)
Maryland @ Indiana (+11)
3:30 PM
I hate betting games where I need to rely on a poor team to stay within the number, even when the opponent is not elite. This kind of dog is usually a tem with some glaring weakness that prevents them from winning games on the field. Usually, these teams are in over their head or are having a really down year. Here, Indiana checks all those boxes. The Hoosiers have regressed to the bottom of the Big Ten and bowl games will be pipe dreams. It is unfortunate to see but the college football world is ruthless. I digress. Maryland is not the best team to bet as a favorite, nevermind on the road. Coach Locksley has done great this year, but the Terps are a better underdog. Bet sizes on games like this should be zero. The play: Pass
Vanderbilt @ Georgia (-38)
3:30 PM
Not to sound like a broken record, but betting massive spreads requires one of two things, if not both: either betting an elite favorite or fading a miserable underdog. Vanderbilt is not miserable right now. The Commodores are playing respectably. However, Vandy is still the lowest in the SEC by a sizable margin. It will take time to escape the basement. But, so far Clark Lea has done commendable. On the other sideline, Georgia is the epitome of elite. The Bulldogs once again are on a collision course with Alabama in the SEC championship game. But, Georgia did need everything to defeat Missouri only a couple of weeks ago. Still, the Bulldogs love blowing out opponents and could win huge. My ratings have this game favoring Georgia by 47.5. The play: UGA-38 (1 unit)
Alabama @ Tennessee (+7)
3:30 PM
Marquee matchups are not always the best bets to bet. People love touting games that the entire country will watch. However, these spread more often than not are spot on as both teams generally are well followed by the oddsmakers. Alabama by 7 is fair and there is little value to be had on the visitors. A large bet would be in store if one likes the Vols at home. Personally, I have Alabama favored by 8 but there is the question at quarterback. Therefore, no play. The play: Pass
James Madison @ Georgia Southern (+11.5)
4:00 PM
Upstart teams that catch public attention fall hard at some point. The spreads offered in those spots can be some of the easiest bets of the season. James Madison is legitimate FBS program and has shown as much in its first year at the level. However, the Dukes have mostly played teams they could have beaten when they were still an FCS program. Georgia Southern is a solid program right now and has a good coach. The Eagles should not be getting this many points at home. Therefore, a confident wager can be placed on the home team and we will see if James Madison deserves an even higher rating. The play: Georgia Southern+11.5 (4 units)
Louisiana Tech @ North Texas (-6.5)
4:00 PM
This spread is approximately correct and the difference between my ratings and the offered number does not warrant placing a wager. The play: Pass
Wisconsin @ Michigan State (+7.5)
4:00 PM
Try figuring out a team who lays an egg, gets its coach unexpectedly fired after years of being a top 25 team, and then wins big enough at home to the point where the backups get significant time. That is what Wisconsin did in the last 2 weeks. Meanwhile, Michigan State fans are questioning whether the large extension the school gave Mel Tucker last year was a bit shortsighted. The Spartans are not bettable right now. However, they are getting over a touchdown at home and can still be competitive. Still, there are better games to bet that have fewer uncertain variables. Therefore, no bet is warranted unless very small. I will take the former. The play: Pass
Tulane @ South Florida (+12)
4:00 PM
Betting viable underdogs getting double digits at home is almost always a viable option. When is it not a great bet, you ask? Well, when the home underdog is a down program who barely remembers winning lots of games and the coach is on the hot seat even after keeping it close against the best program in the league, it might not be a great home underdog. Additionally, when the away favorite is on fire and line movement favors them, passing is probably better than taking the points. All of the above apply to this game. Therefore, the bet is a pass. The play: Pass
Arizona @ Washington (-14)
5:30 PM
As mentioned before, laying lots of points is generally only smart when backing an elite team or fading a miserable one. However, a big nonelite favorite can be backed with a small wager when ratings differ enough from an offered spread and the spread is around or on a key number. Arizona has vastly improved this year, but so is Washington. The Huskies look like a different team in 2022 with new coach Kalen DeBoer. However, UW did lose at Arizona State last week, but buying teams on bad news is a typical contrarian betting staple. Here, my ratings have Washington favored by 20.5 and the spread is 14. That is a big enough difference to warrant a small bet on the less than elite large favorite. The play: Washington-14 (1 unit)
Rice @ Florida Atlantic (-4)
6:00 PM
Rice has been a solid wager this season. Mike Bloomgren is really good and has a team with little talent winning games it has no business being victorious. Florida Atlantic is not as good as some think and has one of the worst FBS coaches at the helm in Willie Taggart. Both of those point towards Rice being a good bet. Sure, FAU is much more talented, but again, betting bets that should win in the long term is the goal when wagering on college football. Lastly, my ratings are off the offered spread by more than 3.5: a number that signals a solid difference. The play: Rice+4 (4 units)
LSU @ Florida (-3)
7:00 PM
See the Utah game for how to think about betting this matchup. LSU can win the game but the quarterback has been erratic and the defense is not great. Billy Napier is a really good coach and has done an acceptable job so far this year - his first at Florida. Lastly, my power ratings have the Gators favored by 4.5. Thus, a small bet at -3 is warranted, with perhaps more being wagered at anything less. The play: Florida-3 (1 unit)
Utah State @ Colorado State (+11.5)
7:00 PM
Betting small or passing is the way to go when a line seems way off. Unknown variables or sudden changes in a team's performance can cause spreads to be drastically different from a set of well kept and updated power ratings. Oftentimes, the culprit for the wild variance is an injury. Other times, a scandal or coaching change is afoot. Either way, spreads that do not make any sense should be avoided most of the time. Utah State was off to a less than stellar start to 2022. In fact, the Aggies got wallopped by FCS Weber State only about a month ago. Since then, Cooper Legas has taken over at quarterback and Utah State upset Air Force, winning outright. An upward adjustment to their rating is likely to come. Meanwhile, Colorado State is abysmal with their only victory coming over lowly Nevada. This spread should be avoided at all costs unless you believe Utah State will run it up on the aimless Rams. The play: Pass
Arkansas State @ Southern Miss (-4.5)
7:00 PM
This bet is a pure ratings play. Southern Miss is over a touchdown better at home than Arkansas State. The Golden Eagles have played well this year under the really good guidance of coach Will Hall. Line movement also indicates USM is the play. The play: Southern Miss-4.5 (4 units)
Louisiana-Monroe @ South Alabama (-17)
7:00 PM
This spread is fair. Therefore no play. The play: Pass
Mississippi State @ Kentucky (+4)
7:30 PM
Betting games with an unknown quarterback situation is daunting. Kentucky quarterback Will Levis is likely playing this week given the way the spread has moved since opening. However, Mississippi State is a very good squad. Are the Bulldogs good enough to warrant being road favorites against a really good coach? I am not sure. Personally, I think I have Mississippi State underrated. Still, I have Kentucky favored by one point. Only a small bet is appropriate and a pass is best until more is known on the status of the Kentucky passer. The play: Pass
Nebraska @ Purdue (-14)
7:30 PM
Large favorites should only be backed when the favorite is elite or the underdog is terrible. One’s personal power ratings should also reflect that the spread is not large enough in either case. Oftentimes, these spreads will be right near what the ratings say they should be but hover around a key number. Nebraska has been terrible and barely got by Rutgers last week. Purdue has a star quarterback and the power ratings say the spread should be about what it is but that Purdue might be a smidge even better. Therefore, the Boilermakers can be bet. However, two full scores makes it a small bet. A regular sized bet could be placed if the spread was still around where it opened (-12 on Sunday night). The play: Purdue-14 (1 unit)
Clemson @ Florida State (+3.5)
7:30 PM
Elite road favorites often struggle on the road even when stats of all kinds and ratings suggest they should cover the spread. Betting such road favorites becomes prohibitive if they are not drastically better than the opponent or laying under a field goal. Either the dog is the bet or the game needs to be passed; at most, a small bet can be acceptable but rare. Clemson remains the top dog in the ACC but certainly has some concerns (looking at you DJ Uiagalelei). Florida State is playing the best football, and thus has its highest rating, since Mike Norvell took over in Tallahassee. My ratings have Clemson laying six, which is not enough to warrant laying the points. The play: Pass
Memphis @ East Carolina (-5)
7:30 PM
Five point spreads are some of the worst in college football. The reason why is that five is a dead number. There is no key number and games do not land near five enough to make it a reliable gauge of the difference between teams. However, five has some value if you have the favorite being favored by more than seven. That way, you win if the favorite wins by a touchdown. Here, I have ECU favored by 7.5. But, Memphis can score with ease at times and the Pirates got smacked by Tulane last week. Therefore, only another small bet is in order. The play: ECU-5
Stanford @ Notre Dame (-17)
7:30 PM
Betting games where the spread is correct is rarely a good idea. Notre Dame is a deserving 17 point home favorite over Stanford. Therefore, this game is a pass. The play: Pass
USC @ Utah (-3.5)
8:00 PM
Betting games around a field goal largely comes down to three things: who can win the game, the coaches, and power ratings. There is no need to over complicate these games. Pundits get hung up on all sorts of stats instead of simply looking at the relative strengths of each team and the situation of the game itself (This is the exact same thing I said for the OK State @ TCU game). Here, USC is fully capable of winning this if they are the real deal while Utah is still a deserving favorite that is properly rated even with last week’s loss. Both coaches are very good. My ratings have Utah favored by 4.5. A regular sized bet would be in store if the spread was 3 or under. However, passing the game is the play unless the number drops since the difference between the spread and my ratings is not enough to warrant laying the hook. The play: Pass/Play Utah at -3 or less.
New Mexico @ New Mexico State +6.5)
8:00 PM
The spread here is accurate. The play: Pass
North Carolina @ Duke (+7)
8:00 PM
Good, or even decent, home underdogs offer some of the best bets in college football. Getting points at home can be a bargain and often allows for at least a small wager; particularly if the team has been competitive. Duke has surprised most of college football this year by rapidly improving in Mike Elko’s first year at the school. The Blue Devils are playing good defense which is not as surprising as their respectable scoring. Perhaps my ratings on North Carolina are a bit low, but Duke should be competitive. However, one touchdown is not enough points to call for a bigger bet when the ratings still favor the road team by more than a field goal. The play: Duke+7 (1 unit)
Washington State @ Oregon State (-3.5)
9:00 PM
Another spread with the home team favored by about a field goal. By now, you should see the way to quickly evaluate such spreads is by looking at who can win the game, the coaches, and power ratings. Washington State has a good enough defense but really struggles with turnovers. I am not so sure they can win this. Meanwhile, Oregon State is favored at home, plays a style of football on which gamblers can routinely rely, and are coming off a nice road comeback win. Jake Dickert has coached decently for Wazzu so far and Jonathan Smith has been above average and aggressive for Oregon State. Lastly, the ratings have the Beavers favored by 9.5. A nice bet up to -7 would not be stupid. Therefore, relying mostly on the power ratings difference, this is a spot where laying the hook on the high side of a field goal is not the worst bet. Still, I would like to have my ratings over ten to feel fully comfortable betting a regular sized wager. The play: Oregon State-3.5 (1 unit)
Air Force @ UNLV (+10)
10:30 PM
Road favorites can be bargains when facing teams that are probably overrated by the general public. UNLV has played well this year but not to the point of being expected to beat Air Force. Air Force has had two disappointing results at Wyoming and at Utah State. Those are two of the toughest places to play in the Mountain West and can be easily excused. The Falcons are still near or at the top of the conference in terms of power. UNLV is still a lesser program and will need to prove they belong in serious regard before being bet against teams of this caliber. The spread is fair and only a small bet is warranted on the favorite. The play: Air Force-10 (1 unit)
San Jose State @ Fresno State (+8.5)
10:45 PM
Fresno State likely would be favored in this game if Jake Haener had not been injured. However, Heaner is in fact hurt and likely is out against San Jose State. This game becomes unbeatable without the star quarterback playing. The play: Pass
Nevada @ Hawai’i (+6.5)
MIDNIGHT
Hawai’i is possibly the worst team in FBS this year and is no longer a viable betting option. Meanwhile, Nevada is also a mess and cannot be backed at spread near a realistic number. The play: Pass
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