WEEK 6 BETS; SATURDAY

Saturday, Oct 8th

Louisville @ Virginia (+3)

Noon

Louisville laying three points on the road makes perfect sense. The Cardinals are a much better football team at their best than Virginia. However, Louisville falls prey to large lapses that lead to losses like last week at Boston College. Additionally, quarterback Malik Cunningham is in concussion protocol and may not play. Therefore, the visitors are not good enough to back as road favorites. On the other side, Virginia is a mess; the Cavaliers have been terrible on offense and have struggled mightily to win games in Tony Elliott’s first season. The play: Pass

Arkansas @ Mississippi State (-8)

Noon

Mississippi State is rolling despite the loss at LSU a few weeks ago. Mike Leach has the offense humming and the Bulldogs appear to be on pace for their best year since hiring Leach away from Wazzu. Arkansas is once again out of the basement of the SEC. Respectability has returned to Fayetteville and the Hogs are no longer a pushover. Still, Mississippi State appears to be about eight points better than Arkansas. The spread is correct and I have no opinion beyond agreement. The play: Pass 

Missouri @ Florida (-11)

Noon

Missouri looked good at times last week as the Tigers most likely caught Georgia looking ahead to its pseudo-rivalry with Auburn. The Gators lack a great quarterback but I would expect the Florida ground game to do just fine against the typically nonexistent Mizzou defense. Florida could roll but are not reliable enough yet to back with marked confidence. The play: Florida-11 (1 unit)

Tennessee @ LSU (+3)

Noon

Brian Kelly is doing a good job so far in Baton Rouge ever since the strange Labor Day Weekend loss to Florida State. The Tigers are a solid talented team that is tough to beat. Meanwhile, Tennessee is rolling with its high paced offense and now faces its best opponent so far this year. Coach Heupel has done well with the Vols but laying three on the road is asking a lot. LSU+3 (4 units)

TCU @ Kansas (+7)

Noon

TCU visits Lawrence for a first place matchup in the Big 12. Both teams are unbeaten and have surprised pundits. Those in the know were well aware of Lance Leipold’s prowess, but even they are still shocked by Kansas’ drastic improvement. Sonny Dykes was a better known coach from having much more national exposure prior to becoming TCU’s coach. Suffice to say, this coaching matchup is solid. TCU has better talent than Kansas but is on the road. Kansas has improved the defense the last few weeks, but is still not caught up to the offense. TCU has capable scoring power when in possession and might force Kansas to play in a shootout. Otherwise, it might get ugly. While TCU is clearly the better team, Kansas is still worth a small backing until they face an elite opponent and are overvalued by the public. The play: Kansas+7 (1 unit)

Texas vs Oklahoma (+7)

Noon (Dallas, TX)

Uncertainty surrounds the Red River Rivalry and I cannot give a confident opinion due to Oklahoma’s losing streak and injuries. The play: Pass

Michigan @ Indiana (+22.5)

Noon

Michigan appears to be the real deal. The Wolverines moved the ball consistently against one of the nation’s top defenses in Iowa last week in Iowa City. I keep upgrading Michigan not because of the competition (or lack thereof) they have faced, but rather, because of how the Wolverines win. Michigan runs the ball with ease often and has smart reliable quarterback play whenever they need it. Somehow this team might be better than last year’s. Indiana is the total opposite. The Hoosiers have gotten much worse and have almost fully regressed back to their place in the Big Ten basement. Michigan could roll but the strange spread is a bit of a worry. The play: Michigan-22.5 (1 unit)

Purdue @ Maryland (-3)

Noon

Purdue is a squad on which a read is tough to get. The Boilermakers pulled off an impressive road upset as double digit dogs at Minnesota last week. To be fair, Minnesota was missing its star running back to injury. Still, Purdue made more than enough plays and ran the ball well enough to win relatively easily, nevermind beating the spread with ease. Maryland is really fun to watch and the ball gets thrown constantly when the Terps have the ball. This game is really interesting and must be played purely by ratings. In that case, I give the slight edge to Maryland. However, I hate fading a coach whom I feel is better than his opposite that week. So, only a small bet on Maryland is in order. The play: Maryland-3 (1 unit)

Buffalo @ Bowling Green (+2.5)

Noon

This spread is fair and neither team is good enough to back confidently. The play: Pass

Eastern Michigan @ Western Michigan (-5)

Noon

Volatility has been the theme of Eastern Michigan’s season thus far. The Eagles defeated Arizona State but needed a second half comeback to beat lowly UMass at home. Meanwhile, Tim Lester has done the best he can against a tough schedule so far for Western Michigan. The jury is still out on what kind of year to expect from the Broncos. The schedule softens as MACtion returns and the Broncos should be laying more than five at home. The play: Western Michigan-5 (4 units)

Akron @ Ohio (-11.5)

2:00 PM

Akron is one of the worst teams in FBS. Ohio is not very good but did give Kent State a game last week, losing in overtime on the road. Still, Ohio is not a very good favorite to bet at the moment. Therefore, no bet is in store. The play: Pass

Georgia Southern @ Georgia State (-2.5)

2:00 PM

This game could be very close as indicated by the spread. Both teams have had ups and downs already this year. Georgia Southern clearly made a good hire in Clay Helton. Georgia State suffered through a gauntlet to start the season before finally notching a win against Army at West Point in Week 5. The Panthers favoritism is deserving and my ratings have the spread a point higher than currently offered. Therefore, a small bet on the home team is fine. The play: Georgia State-2.5 (1 unit)

South Florida @ Cincinnati (-27.5)

2:30 PM

Cincinnati appears to still be the top of the AAC class in 2022. The Bearcats have barely slowed this year, but are clearly not as good as last season. South Florida has shown improvements but is coming off a big loss last week that had to be moved due to Hurricane Ian. My ratings like the Bulls here, but not by enough to warrant a wager. The play: Pass

Kent State @ Miami (Ohio) (+6)

3:30 PM

Kent State is likely the best team in the MAC West. However, Miami Ohio would have had such a claim if not for its starting quarterback being injured a few games ago. Still, the RedHawks play well and are coached well too. My numbers have Miami Ohio favored at home, even with quarterback Brett Gabbert still likely out. That face alone makes this worth a good bet. The play: Miami Ohio+6 (4 units)

Ball State @ Central Michigan (-7.5)

3:30 PM

Ball State is likely the worst team in MAC West and Central Michigan is too unpredictable as of late to back confidently. Sure, the Chippewas are significantly more talented than the Cardinals. However, there are better bets to be made. The play: Pass

Virginia Tech @ Pitt (-14.5)

3:30 PM

Neither of these teams are bettable at the moment. Virginia Tech is really struggling through the first year of Brent Pry. Pitt is in a down year and has regressed a ton since the departures of Kenny Pickett to the NFL and Jordan Addison to USC via the portal. The play: Pass

Middle Tennessee @ UAB (-9.5)

3:30 PM

UAB hosts Middle Tennessee State in Week 6. The Blazers come in off an upset loss at resurgent Rice. Meanwhile, Middle Tennessee has already had a whirlwind of a season; the Blue Raiders won three games straight, including a huge upset at Miami bookended by a blowout loss to FBS newcomer James Madison and home loss to UTSA. So, this game seems as though it would be difficult to handicap. Therefore, a look to the ratings for guidance is in store. My ratings have UAB favored by just over two full scores. That is close enough to garner reliability (i.e. the ratings are likely accurate) and disparate enough to warrant a wager (i.e. there is sufficient value to bet a side). Thus, UAB will be the play and hopefully play to their best by grounding down MTSU. The play: UAB-9.5 (4 units)

East Carolina @ Tulane (-3.5)

3:30 PM

Tulane is a far better underdog than a favorite against opponents of similar talent. Somehow, the Green Wave’s only loss so far this season was to CUSA opponent Southern Miss. Perhaps Willie Fritz’s team was looking ahead to Houston after defeating Kansas State the previous week. No matter the reason, the Wave came back last week for an impressive victory without their starting quarterback at Houston. The backup got hurt during the game and Tulane’s third stringer came in to save the day. The Green Wave won in overtime. Here, the ECU Pirates visit New Orleans in what should be a well coached affair. East Carolina played well so far this season losing only twice by a total of 4 points. Both rosters feature experienced quarterbacks (Tulane starter Michael Pratt practiced Tuesday) and Mike Houston and Willie Fritz have done wonders over the years with the talent their programs can obtain. This might be one of the tougher games on the Week 6 slate. However, my ratings have Tulane rated significantly higher. Perhaps I have underrated ECU all season, and Tulane is not the best team to bet on as a favorite. Therefore, only a small bet is in order. The play: Tulane-3.5 (1 unit) (-3 or less would be preferable) 

Tulsa @ Navy (+6)

3:30 PM

Wagering on games involving service academies is typically difficult as the game flow is often not to form and results become unpredictable. The play: Pass

Toledo @ Northern Illinois (+5.5)

3:30 PM

This spread is both accurate and a dead number. Therefore, no bet should be made on this game. The play: Pass

Wisconsin @ Northwestern (+10)

3:30 PM

Like the Virginia Tech at Pitt game above, Wisconsin and Northwestern are both unbeatable as of right now. Both teams have looked bad and have underperformed. Never mind that Wiconsin fired Paul Chryst. See, Wisconsin has grown inpatient with results that would have been considered stellar at most other schools. Meanwhile, Northwestern has flat out looked horrific. Somehow, the magnificent Pat Fitzgerald got his Wildcats to stay within shouting distance at Penn State last week. However, there are plainly too many questions about each squad here. The play: Pass

Texas Tech @ Oklahoma State (-9)

3:30 PM

Texas Tech does not have the defense to keep the experienced Spencer Sanders in check for a full game. Oklahoma State might be the best team in the Big 12 once all is said and done. Mike Gundy is the best coach in the conference and the Cowboys looked top-notch at Baylor last week. Meanwhile, close results are common for Texas Tech and the Red Raiders seem to really play to their competition. This step up in class might expose all of Texas Tech’s weaknesses early and often. The play: OK State-9 (4 units)

Auburn @ Georgia (-30)

3:30 PM

Last week’s tight comeback win at Missouri was almost certainly an aberration. Georgia is still one of the top teams in the nation and a lapse in focus of a top team is a yearly occurrence in this sport. Kirby Smart surely let his Bulldogs know that better performance is mandatory. Meanwhile, Auburn has played well in the first half of games and terribly in the second half. The Tigers are now in the SEC West basement. Depending on contract particulars, Bryan Harsin is on the hot seat and likely faces termination later this season. Of course Georgia can win almost every game it plays. Auburn struggles moving the ball, but this technically is a rivalry and the Tigers do still have talented athletes. The coaching disparity is massive, but the spread is too. Thus, only a small bet is appropriate. The play: Georgia-30 (1 unit)

Liberty @ UMass (+24.5)

3:30 PM

This spread is accurate and there is no value. The play: Pass

Utah @ UCLA (+3.5)

3:30 PM

Utah is at the top of the PAC-12 until they lose a conference game. Once that occurs, if it does, the conference will be down one fewer CFP hopeful. This week, the Utes travel to Pasadena to take on UCLA. UCLA is undefeated and beat Washington last week as a Friday night home underdog. Those are rare across college football but seemingly pop up yearly in the PAC-12. I like both teams and am afraid to fade UCLA getting points at home. However, I do have Utah favored by 9.5; a big enough difference to warrant a bet. Still, the line movement has been in UCLA’s favor. Waiting until this line gets below a field goal might be prudent as Utah has a recent history of losing games in this type of spot. The play: Utah-3; if it gets there (1 unit)

Washington @ Arizona State (+14)

4:00 PM

Washington is significantly better than Arizona State but is coming off its first loss, also on the road at UCLA. Arizona State is in tatters right now and still managed to cover at USC. Therefore, no bet is the smart move. The play: Pass

Ohio State @ Michigan State (+27)

4:00 PM

Ohio State appears to be rolling towards a likely showdown with Michigan to once again determine the Big Ten East representative in Indianapolis. The offense is marking the scoreboard as expected and the defense has improved dramatically under new defensive coordinator Jim Knowles. Michigan State appears headed towards a massive regression. Mel Tucker might not right the ship this year. However, 27 is still a lot of points that smart bettors should think twice before laying. The play: Pass

Duke @ Georgia Tech (+3.5)

4:00 PM

Duke might be the most improved team in the country (including Kansas) this season. The Blue Devils are playing decent defense and can move the ball consistently. Additionally, Duke is avoiding lots of penalties that had piled up in the last few years of the prior staff. Mike Elko has an A+ so far. Meanwhile, Georgia Tech has seemingly gotten better overnight since the recent firing of Geoff Collins. I have this game a pick but fear that might be inaccurate given the ratings on these teams might not be true as of yet. Therefore, a pass is the smart thing to do. The play: Pass

North Carolina @ Miami (-3.5)

4:00 PM

My ratings have Miami favored by significantly more than the spread. However, early line movement and Miami’s current situation has me second guessing this opinion. At the risk of insufficient analysis, this game should be evaluated purely by the ratings. Therefore, Miami is the play. Obviously though, the bet will not be a confident one. The play: Miami-3.5 (1 unit)/or possibly a pass if the line continues dropping

Ole Miss @ Vanderbilt (+17)

4:00 PM

This spread is appropriate. However, manipulative line movement appears to be occurring. Sure, Vanderbilt has improved this year. But, the Commodores still lack the talent to come close to competing with true SEC rosters. Ole Miss is coming off a close win that likely took a lot out of the Rebels. Lane Kiffin will really need to work hard to have his players focused for the traditional walk-over opponent of the SEC. Action should come back on Ole Miss if the spread drops below 17. If it does, the Rebels are the play, albeit a small one. For now though, this game is a pass. The play: Pass unless the line drops below 17; in that case, Ole Miss-16.5 (1 unit)

Western Kentucky @ UTSA (-6.5)

6:00 PM

This game is a pure ratings play. My numbers have UTSA favored by 8.5 while the spread is half off the key number of seven. Therefore, only a small play is in order. The play: UTSA-6.5 (1 unit) 

Appalachian State @ Texas State (+19) 

7:00 PM

This spread is correct. The play: Pass

UTEP @ Louisiana Tech (-3)

7:00 PM

Up and down play has highlighted UTEP’s season so far. The Miners had extreme trouble moving the ball for several games and then the offense came to life the last few weeks. Louisiana Tech has had a tough schedule save for their only win over FCS Stephen F. Austin and the Bulldogs come in off of a bye. My numbers have this game rated a pick em but I am less than convinced as to the accuracy of my ratings on these two squads. Therefore, a pass or small wager are the only options. The play: UTEP+3 (1 unit)

Southern Miss @ Troy (-6.5)

7:00 PM

This spread is fair. There is no value on either team. The play: Pass

James Madison @ Arkansas State (+11.5)

7:00 PM

This spread is spot on and no bet is worthwhile. However, the thorough bettor would be wise to keep an eye on this game as it may show a more accurate picture of both of these teams’ true level. The play: Pass

Air Force @ Utah State (+10.5)

7:00 PM

Air Force comes in off a close rivalry game win over Navy. The two option teams played close and there were few possessions as expected. Air Force returns to conference play with a visit to Logan to take on Utah State. The Aggies have really struggled after a terrific season in 2021. Utah State was tied at BYU last week but could not pull through in the second half against the non-conference in-state rival. Air Force is fully capable of having a field day on the ground against the porous Utah State defense. My ratings have Air Force favored by 16.5 and the six point difference is enough to warrant a bet. The play: AFA-10.5 (1 unit)

Wyoming @ New Mexico (+3.5)

7:00 PM

The spread is fair and having Wyoming favored makes a bet against the good home defense of New Mexico not worthwhile. The play: Pass

UConn @ Florida International (+5.5)

7:00 PM

UConn has been one of the worst programs across FBS the last five years or so. This week, they get a chance to beat up on the current worst team in FBS. Florida International is simply terrible. The offense can move the ball against poor opponents, but the defense is atrocious. Most of FIU’s defenders would struggle to start for most FCS squads. However, the Panthers somehow defeated New Mexico State last week. Yes, NMSU is pitiful also, but at least the Aggies tackled throughout the year. For its part, UConn has shown great improvement under new coach Jim Mora. Mora has the Huskies attitudes improving as well as their play. Sure, UConn is not good yet and their first FBS win in ages last week was against a Fresno State team sans star NFL prospect passer Jake Haener. But, UConn still won the game and Mora is a competent coach. Laying points with UConn is a tough ask, but FIU is generally bad enough to blindly fade and come out ahead for a while. The play: UConn-5.5 (1 unit)

South Carolina @ Kentucky (-10)

7:30 PM

South Carolina comes to Lexington off a win over FCS South Carolina State. The Gamecocks have a bye next week. Meanwhile, Kentucky lost heartbreakingly at Ole Miss and have Mississippi State on deck. The Wildcats have the coaching edge, but South Carolina has the ability to hang in there to cover through the back door. The play: South Carolina+10 (1 unit)

Kansas State @ Iowa State (+2)

7:30 PM

Kansas State moves the ball with ease at times when Deuce Vaughn gets his deserving touches. Quarterback Adrian Martinez appears to have fully assimilated to his new team and is playing well the last few games. Chris Klieman has a Big 12 contender on his hands. Meanwhile, Iowa State has regressed, understandably so, with the loss of an all time Cyclone running back and quarterback duo. Matt Campbell’s squad has dropped two games after finally beating Iowa (ISU beat Ohio in between). Perhaps my ratings have yet to catch up to more accurate readings of these two teams, but Iowa State is typically a solid home underdog. Still, Kansas State’s current form warrants favoritism. The play: Pass

Washington State @ USC (-13)

7:30 PM

Washington State looks good with FCS transfer quarterback Cameron Ward passing the ball. However, Ward is still pretty raw and a pick or two per game remains expected. USC seemed to sleepwalk through last week and still won comfortably. The Trojans are playoff contenders if Lincoln Riley has them at the level of his Oklahoma teams. Maybe my ratings are still low on Washington State, but I will let the Cougars prove me wrong before I adjust them too high. The play: USC-13 (4 units) 

Iowa @ Illinois (-3.5)

7:30 PM

This spread is dead accurate by my ratings. Therefore, there is no value to be had betting this game. The play: Pass

Clemson @ Boston College (+20.5)

7:30 PM

Boston College finally showed some life on offense last week, albeit against Louisville. Still, the Eagles finally moved the ball consistently and quarterback Phil Jurkovec looked as he has been expected to all year. This week offers a massive step up in class as Clemson visits the Heights. Purely ratings wise, Clemson can cover this number. However, it is not a great spot: road game at night. Therefore, only a small bet should be wagered. The play: Clemson-20.5 (1 unit)

BYU vs Notre Dame (-3.5)

7:30 PM (Las Vegas, NV)

BYU and Notre travel to Sin City for a neutral site matchup that many had circled prior to the season. Notre Dame has not lived up to expectations and BYU lost any hope of an unbeaten year following a beat down at Oregon a few weeks ago. Still, this game should be entertaining. However, the spread is spot on so no great betting opportunity is present. The play: Pass

Army @ Wake Forest (-17)

7:30 PM

This spread is spot on. My ratings have Wake favored by 16; therefore no bet is warranted. The play: Pass

Coastal Carolina @ Louisiana-Monroe (+13.5)

8:00 PM

This spread is fair and there is no value offered. The play: Pass

Texas A&M @ Alabama (-24)

8:00 PM

A disappointing first half has reduced expectations quite a bit in College Station. The Aggies’ offense struggled in every game this year. Texas A&M is young and will be good eventually. However, this year might end with a less than desired bowl. Meanwhile, Alabama reclaimed the top spot in the AP poll this week and has looked as good as ever. A close win at Texas was the only game ever in doubt this season. Bryce Young injured his shoulder in a strange win over Arkansas last week, and his status is unknown as of writing. Tension should be high in this game, despite the larger spread, because of comments made by both Jimbo Fisher and Nick Saban during the offseason. A&M has the talent to cover the large number, but the Aggies rating is low enough to not be terribly confident. The play: A&M+24 (1 unit) 

Florida State @ NC State (-3)

8:00 PM

Florida State looked good this year, until they didn’t. The Noles fell apart against the much better coached Wake Forest last week. Wake Forest looked like the far superior team. The calls for FSU “being back” are now quiet. To add insult to injury, a trip to NC State is what Florida State faces in Week 6. The Wolf Pack have underperformed this year. That is not to say NC State has played poorly; simply expectations have not been met yet. Hanging with Clemson should boost NC State’s opinion of itself, but losing sure did not help the Pack inch closer to a New Year’s Six appearance. This week, the home team only lays a field goal and is the better team in almost every aspect of the game. Of course, this suggests a nice bet on NC State. The play: NC State-3 (4 units) 

Oregon @ Arizona (+13)

9:00 PM

As much as Arizona has improved, Oregon remains one of the top PAC-12 programs. Since being trounced in the opener against Georgia, the Ducks have rolled. The offense scores lots of points and the defense does enough to keep the margin safe. Yes, a big comeback was needed to win at Washington State, but Oregon still won. Therefore, the Ducks rating stays relatively high, all things considered. Meanwhile, the Wildcats have improved and are undoubtedly no longer the worst PAC-12 team. That distinction belongs to Colorado for now. Typically, laying 13 on the road at night is not advisable. However, my ratings have Oregon favored by 17.5. That is close enough to be reliable and different enough to warrant a wager. The play: Oregon-13 (1 unit)

Fresno State @ Boise State (-7.5)

9:45 PM

There are too many questions and uncertainties surrounding both teams to advise betting this game. The play: Pass

Hawai’i @ San Diego State (-21)

10:30 PM

Both of these teams are unbeatable for the time being. The play: Pass

Oregon State @ Stanford (+7)

11:00 PM

This spread is fairly precise and no bet is in order here. The play: Pass