WEEK 5 BETS: SATURDAY

 Saturday, Oct 1st

Georgia State @ Army (-7.5)

Noon

Georgia State has struggled the last few weeks after opening with a gauntlet of games. The Panthers allowed 42 points to Charlotte in a one point defeat at home two weeks ago and got clobbered last week by Sun Belt contender Coastal Carolina. Army cruised two weeks ago against FCS member Villanova after also losing to Coastal Carolina in addition to UTSA. Army’s offense is exactly what Georgia State has a tough time defending. Army is not playing up to their typical rating and this year’s Black Knights are still a bit of a mystery so far. The current spread is tough unless you think Georgia State will finally wake up this year. I’d wait to find out. The play: Pass or Army-7.5 (1 unit)

Navy @ Air Force (-14)

Noon

Games between the service academies are tough nuts to crack and are typically better off skipped; or taking the points. Here, Navy is pitiful even after the win against East Carolina. Troy Calhoun is a better coach than Ken Niumatalolo, and Air Force is a serious Mountain West contender. Navy lost to Delaware and has yet to get its ground game going. The play: Pass

Michigan @ Iowa (+11)

Noon

Michigan is a Big Ten contender again this year and has a shot to really upgrade its rating as they play more conference games. All the pieces are in place for another fantastic year. Sure, the Wolverines took longer than expected to get past Maryland last week, but that was not shocking. Maryland has a legitimate quarterback and a terrific receiver corps. Here, Iowa has little offense to speak of but has one of college football’s top defenses. Look for Iowa to really slow this game down and keep it close. We will finally see how together Michigan’s offense really is this year. Iowa is the pick even with the anemic offense. The play: Iowa+11 (3 units)

Kentucky @ Ole Miss (-6.5)

Noon

Ole Miss nearly got caught looking ahead to this game as did Kentucky. Both squads did not play their best football in Week 4 but still played well enough to remain unbeaten in 2022. Ole Miss has not played the stiffest competition yet while Kentucky beat a decent Florida team by ten in the Swamp. Star running back Chris Rodriguez should be back for the Wildcats. Rodriguez served a suspension for the first month of the season and his presence makes a significant impact to Kentucky’s power rating. Kentucky should be favored but are actually getting nearly a full score. Yes, the game is on the road and Kentucky has been slightly underwhelming while Ole Miss runs up the score on lesser opponents, but the Wildcats are a really well coached team and should not be phased by the boisterous crowd in Oxford. The play: Kentucky+6.5 (3 units)

Oklahoma @ TCU (+7)

Noon

TCU is thriving with new coach Sonny Dykes. His offense reinvigorated a program that had grown somewhat stale in Gary Patterson’s final few years. Likewise, Oklahoma has taken well to its new coach, Brent Venables. That is, until last week’s surprising loss at home to Kansas State. The Wildcats normally are a thorn in the Sooners’ side, but the loss was still unexpected. TCU might still be underrated, but Oklahoma is still a top notch program and the one to beat in the Big 12 this season. Therefore, only a small bet on the home dog is in order. The play: TCU+7 (1 unit)

Texas Tech @ Kansas State (-8)

Noon

Texas Tech needed a comeback and overtime to defeat Texas last week. Kansas State won on the road at Oklahoma in a shootout. Tech will have its hands full defending Deuce Vaughn and Kansas State coach Chris Klieman is  agood enough coach to figure out how to keep the Red Raider offense in check. Kansas State would be a good bet up to ten full points. The play: Kansas State-8 (1 unit)

Illinois @ Wisconsin (-7)

Noon

Wisconsin was beaten pretty badly by Ohio State last week. However, that was not entirely shocking considering Ohio State looks the best they have been since Ryan Day became the head coach. Wisconsin is still a really good program with way above average talent at multiple spots. It is becoming apparent that quarterback is not one of them. Graham Mertz has struggled mightily and has been a significant negative contributor in some of the Badgers worst losses. Meanwhile, Illinois is playing pretty good football. Bret Bielema is molding the Illini similarly to how he coached at Wisconsin. While Illinois has done well adopting Bielema’s style, Wisconsin is just plain better at all those same things. The Illini lack a dependable quarterback and Wisconsin’s defense should block up any ground attack. The play: Wisconsin-7 (3 units)

Purdue @ Minnesota (-12.5)

Noon

Minnesota is playing its best football since its outstanding 2019 season. So far, this year has been even better. The Gophers lost their top receiver for the remainder of 2022 a few weeks ago, but have kept turning to a reliable ground game to get wins. Purdue nearly fell at home to Florida Atlantic in Week 4, but still came out ahead even without star quarterback Aidan O’Connell. The spread suggests O’Connell will remain off the field for now so betting this game might not be the most prudent unless you really like Minnesota. PJ Fleck is doing an outstanding job again and the favorite is worth a small bet. The play: Minnesota-12.5 (1 unit)

Louisville @ Boston College (+15.5)

Noon

This spread seems a tad high. However, Boston College looks awful; its only victory came against middling FCS opponent Maine. Meanwhile, Louisville is having a roller coaster of a season and is unpredictable from one week to the next. Therefore, this game might be tough to predict. A big Louisville road win would not be a surprise, but BC is home and getting a ton of points. Still, the Eagles are not a team one can back confidently at the moment. The play: Pass

Temple @ Memphis (-19.5)

Noon

Temple is a terrible football team but got a respite from losing when UMass came to Philadelphia in Week 4. Now, the Owls travel to Memphis. The Tigers are typically good at home and score lots of points. However, they are not the most reliable favorite. The play: Pass

Texas State @ James Madison (-22)

1:30 PM

The spread is spot on: my ratings have JMU favored by 21. So, the bet would be small on Texas State, but James Madison is very good and consistently runs up the score against bad competition. However, the Dukes are not immune to let down spots and last week’s big comeback road win against Appalachian State could leave JMU drained. However, Texas State is very bad and truly should not be bet at all costs. The play: Pass

Oregon State @ Utah (-10.5)

2:00 PM

Oregon State suffered a heartbreaking loss to USC at home in Week 4. Utah continued steamrolling the lesser competition it has faced since losing to Florida in Week 1. Utah is very very good. The Utes will continue climbing back up the AP Poll and are a legitimate CFP contender. There is not a ton of value here on Utah, but they are the better team and it might be tough for Oregon State to get up for the trip to Salt Lake City. The play: Utah-10.5 (1 unit)

Northern Illinois @ Ball State (+3.5)

2:00 PM

Northern Illinois may be without quarterback Rocky Lombardi. Ball State is the bottom of the MAC West, but getting more than a field goal at home is tough to fade. The play: Pass

UMass @ Eastern Michigan (-20)

2:00 PM

UMass lacks a functioning FBS quarterback; leading opponents to stack the box against the run and completely shut down the Minutemen offense. Eastern Michigan’s season has gone enigmatically so far with head scratching losses to lesser teams and nice upset wins over better programs. The spread is about right and Eastern Michigan’s defense is terrible. UMass is basically an automatic fade at the moment so a tiny bet on the Eagles would not be terrible. The play: Eastern Michigan-20 (1 unit)

Ohio @ Kent State (-11)

3:30 PM

Kent State is the best MAC East team and can score at will on lesser defenses. The Fast Flash offense actually kept Kent State within shouting distance of top ranked Georgia last week. Sean Lewis is a good coach but has blown leads with alarming frequency in the past. Ohio has not done well since Frank Solich’s retirement. Tim Albins cannot seem to get the Bobcats back to their level of contending for MAC championship game appearances. The lack of an even average back seven on defense is going to lead to Ohio allowing lots of points this season. Kent State is a much better program at the moment, but the chance of a let down game after playing the defending CFP champs relatively close is concerning. Thus, only a small play is in order. The play: Kent State-11 (1 unit)

Miami (OH) @ Buffalo (+1.5)

3:30 PM

Miami Ohio is playing well without top quarterback Brett Gabbert. Chuck Martin and his staff have done a decent job adapting to the adversity. Meanwhile, Buffalo has surprised with a good performance against Coastal Carolina and a win at Eastern Michigan. Still, the Bulls lost to Patriot League member Holy Cross at home only a few weeks ago and Miami Ohio was a preseason contender for the MAC championship. Even without its quarterback, the RedHawks are a better overall team than Buffalo. The play: Miami Ohio+1.5 (1 unit)

Central Michigan @ Toledo (-7.5)

3:30 PM

The current spread is fair for this game. Toledo’s game plan will be to bottle up Lew Nichols III and to light up the scoreboard with its dynamic passer. Toledo might be the real deal this year; Jason Candle might have his most complete Rockets in his time at the school. Central Michigan is still a good team and is Toledo’s main competition in the MAC West. This game is big for both teams. Toledo’s defense is the best in the MAC by far; but if the Rockets are going to lose a MAC game this might be the most obvious one. Typically, fading a conference’s top team is not the best bet, but when scaling it can be done intelligently. The play: Central Michigan+7.5 (1 unit)

SMU @ Central Florida (-3)

3:30 PM

This game can be looked at simply from a betting perspective. Central Florida is good enough to be over a field goal favorite at home. SMU, for their part, is good enough to win tough road games. The Mustangs offense can be stopped by better teams, and betting on SMU would indicate more than a 50/50 chance of winning outright. I’d suspect that chance is much lower. UCF needs better quarterback play if they want to truly contend for the AAC championship. The play: UCF-3 (1 unit)

Wake Forest @ Florida State (-6.5)

3:30 PM

Wake Forest came oh so close to defeating ACC standard bearer Clemson last week. The Deacons came up just short in overtime, but the Wake Forest offense showed that teams can absolutely score on the top notch Clemson defense when they have the skills and game plan. Florida State has won close games against good teams while blowing out poor teams. The Seminoles opened seven point favorites and it has since been bet down to six and a half. FSU looks good, sure, but Wake Forest is a very good team that wins or stays close most of the time. Furthermore, those FSU close wins against good competition show the Noles have been lucky to an extent. Being on the road and not having a reliable defense are the things keeping this from being a bigger wager. The play: Wake Forest+6.5 (1 unit)

Virginia Tech @ North Carolina (-9)

3:30 PM

This spread is accurate. The play: Pass

Bowling Green @ Akron (+8.5)

3:30 PM

Akron is in contention for the bottom of FBS; Joe Moorhead has his hands full. Still, Bowling Green is nothing to write home about. However, Scott Loeffler has done well this year regarding getting Bowling Green to actually score some points. The Falcons would have trouble stopping a lot of FCS running attacks; a point obviated by Bowling Green’s loss to FCS member Eastern Kentucky. Akron won this game outright last year. Don't expect that again, but Akron is worth the smallest of wagers, or rather, Bowling Green is worth the smallest of fades. The play: Akron+8.5 (1 unit)

Northwestern @ Penn State (-27)

3:30 PM

Northwestern is a mess ever since their Week 0 win in Ireland against a Nebraska team that turned out to be terrible. Penn State is very good and in contention for the Big Ten. The Nittany Lions have the ability to blow out Northwestern. However, will they care enough to do so with Michigan on deck? The play: Pass 

Rutgers @ Ohio State (-41)

3:30 PM

This game can be bet purely based on the ratings as the enormous spread really discourages any sizeable wager. The play: Ohio State-41 (1 unit)

Oklahoma State @ Baylor (-2.5)

3:30 PM

Oklahoma State travels to Waco for a rematch of last year’s Big 12 championship game. The Pokes lost that game after suffering multiple goal line stands by Dave Aranda’s terrific Baylor defense. That game will surely be in the minds of Oklahoma State. However, Baylor appears to be even better this year while Oklahoma State has not really been tested by top class competition yet. Sure, the OK State offense is typically outstanding, but Baylor’s defense is rating as the best in the conference. Additionally, besides quarterback Spencer Sanders, the Pokes lack any substantial experience on that side of the ball. Meanwhile, Baylor’s offense has been better than expected. This is a great coaching matchup. Baylor is perpetually underrated and a good defense and acceptable quarterback play can take teams farther than they otherwise should. The play: Baylor-2.5 (3 units)

Iowa State @ Kansas (+3)

3:30 PM

This spread is about right. Kansas needs to show they have a legitimate defense before they can be a deserving favorite against a decent conference opponent. Iowa State is licking their wounds following last week’s home loss to Baylor, but the Kansas defense is nowhere near that of Baylor. Kansas coach Lance Leipold can jump to the front of the list of desired coaches if he continues winning. Stay tuned. The play: Pass

Alabama @ Arkansas (+17)

3:30 PM

Alabama heads to Arkansas for its first SEC West matchup of 2022. The Crimson Tide have played as expected save a close call in Austin in Week 2. Still, coach Saban has his team playing up to snuff. However, Arkansas will be a step up in class following wins over ULM and Vanderbilt. The spread is high and Arkansas has the ability to cover. Betting the Hogs would be more reassuring if Arkansas gave up fewer points, but Sam Pittman should have a solid game plan this week after falling by two to Texas A&M last week in Arlington. The ratings favor Alabama by 14.5 so 17 offers little margin of safety. Still, a small spread might be in order if the number continues to move upward. However, only betting small is appropriate when fading an elite squad like Alabama. The play: Arkansas+17 (1 unit)

Fresno State @ UConn (+24)

3:30 PM

Fresno State visits East Hartford in another game featuring a large spread that can be wagered purely using power ratings. Here, my power ratings have Fresno State favored by 25.5; therefore, a small bet is in store on the visitors. Early line movement sent the spread up and Fresno has the talent to clobber the Huskies. The play: Fresno-24 (1 unit)

Michigan State @ Maryland (-7.5)

3:30 PM

The spread is spot on. The play: Pass

Texas A&M @ MIssissippi State (-3.5)

4:00 PM

Texas A&M at Mississippi State is an incredibly difficult game to handicap. Both teams are good but prone to let downs. Both coaches are very good but sometimes make head scratching decisions in key spots. Both teams are talented and have a shot at appearing in high end bowls. Therefore, the bet here is purely ratings based. The play: Texas A&M+3.5 (1 unit)

Georgia Southern @ Coastal Carolina (-10)

4:00 PM

This spread is fairly accurate, therefore there is little value. A play on the underdog would not be the worst, but Coastal does enjoy running it up as much as any other team. The excellent Grayson McCall has been listed on the injury report and Georgia Southern plays a style of football conducive to being an underdog. The play: Pass

Florida Atlantic @ North Texas (+3.5)

4:00 PM

Florida Atlantic hung with Purdue in Week 4 as the Boilermakers did not have their star quarterback. The Owls played decent defense and scored enough points to have a shot at winning the game. Still, Willie Taggert is not a great coach to back. North Texas plays very little defense but can move the ball with regularity. Seth Litrell is a better coach than Taggert and my ratings have the Mean Green favored. Maybe I still have UNT rated too highly, or FAU rated too low. Nevertheless, fading Taggert is never a poor decision. The play: North Texas+3.5 (1 unit)

South Alabama @ Louisiana (+9)

5:00 PM

South Alabama is playing fantastic football lately while Louisiana has nearly regressed completely to where the Ragin’ Cajuns were prior to former coach Billy Napier arriving. The spread is fair and no value is apparent. Maybe backing the home dog would be acceptable. The play: Pass

California @ Washington State (-4)

5:30 PM

Tough spread that is accurate. Little to no value here. The play: Pass

Liberty @ Old Dominion (+2.5)

6:00 PM

Liberty is having issues at quarterback due to injuries, so waiting to see who is starting would be prudent. If the FLames have someone besides their third stringer taking snaps, a bet on them would not be terrible. Coach Hugh Freeze is fantastic and Old Dominion lacks a real offensive threat. Sure, the Monarchs’ solid defense limits points keeping games close, but points on the board are imperative at some point. The play: Pass for now; Liberty up to 2.5 (1 unit) depending on the quarterback situation

UTEP @ Charlotte (+3)

6:00 PM

Charlotte plays almost no defense and has benefitted from playing some poor defenses itself so far this season. The 49ers stunned Georgia State on the road two weeks ago before losing expectedly at South Carolina last week. UTEP looked fantastic against Boise State and the step down in competition here is significant. My ratings have UTEP favored by over a full score. Still, laying three on the road is almost never a good bet. So, a small bet is the only play. The play: UTEP-3 (1 unit)

LSU @ Auburn (+9)

7:00 PM

Auburn cannot be bet confidently right now. Luck interceded on the Tigers’ behalf last week in a low scoring home overtime win over Missouri. Meanwhile, all cylinders are running for LSU ever since their wild Week 1 loss to Florida State. My ratings have this much closer than the spread, but I cannot put money on Auburn. Brian Kelly is a significantly better coach than Bryan Harsin and might try to embarrass his opponents this week. Looming calls for Harsin to be fired will only grow louder unless Auburn pulls off a big upset. The play: Pass

Cincinnati @ Tulsa (+9.5)

7:00 PM

Cincinnati has not regressed as significantly as expected, while Tulsa is playing to the lower range of what has come to be expected of coach Philip Montgomery. The Golden Hurricane lack a serious defense and quarterback Davis Brinn will struggle against a very good Cincinnati defense. Coach Montgomery is a good coach to be sure, but coach Fickell has been stellar. Cincinnati loves running up the score, but Tulsa can be tough at home. The play: Cincinnati-9.5 (1 unit)

East Carolina @ South Florida (+8)

7:00 PM

The line is off the board for this game as of writing. 

Louisiana - Monroe @ Arkansas State (-7)

7:00 PM

The Warhawks looked good last week in a win over rival Louisiana. Monroe actually looked like a competent football team at times. Clearly, Terry Bowden is improving this program. Meanwhile, Butch Jones is doing a fair job rebuilding Arkansas State. Still, the Redwolves are not a reliable team and play little defense. A full score is a lot for A-State and ULM has good form right now. The play: ULM+7 (1 unit)

Troy @ Western Kentucky (-5.5)

7:00 PM

The spread is correct here and the number is now a dead one. The play: Pass

Virginia @ Duke (-2.5)

7:30 PM

Virginia has an undependable offense only a year after scoring loads of points with regularity. Coach Elliot is having a tough first go and losing to Duke would be devastating in his first season. Meanwhile, new head coach Mike Elko is doing a fine job in Durham; the Blue Devils started 3-0 before falling by eight at Kansas last week. Here, the power ratings suggest Virginia is the play, but the numbers may not reflect where these programs are headed. The play: Pass

Indiana @ Nebraska (-6)

7:30 PM

Neither of these programs offer good backing prospects as of late. The play: Pass

UAB @ Rice (+10)

7:30 PM

Rice is a good bet lately and might regress to the mean this week against UAB. The Owls are playing to a higher rating than is normal over the last several years. Still, Mike Bllomgren creates great game plans that give this small program a chance to win games. UAB is playing well even after the departure of great coach Bill Clark. The Blazers’ playing style is that of a team which is excellent to bet on over the long term, especially when getting points. Here, the power ratings have Rice slightly closer than what is the spread. The play: Rice+10 (1 unit)

San Jose State @ Wyoming (+3)

7:30 PM

This spread is about right and there is little value. Two very good coaches will matchup in Laramie so it should be a pretty good game. The play: Pass

West Virginia @ Texas (-10)

7:30 PM

Texas had a disappointing loss on the road last week at Texas Tech. The Longhorns blew multiple leads and eventually faltered in overtime. West Virginia beat up on old Big East rival Virginia Tech. Texas has superior talent and coaching is about even. Being at home will only help the ‘Horns, but Oklahoma is on deck. I like Texas but not enough to make it a bet to sweat. The play: Texas-10 (1 unit)

NC State @ Clemson (-6.5)

7:30 PM

NC State travels to Clemson for a matchup with enormous implications in the ACC. Both teams are unbeaten and the winner will have a shot at the CFP. NC State has a slight coaching edge; Dave Doeren has done lots with much less than Dabo Swinney has. Not that Swinney is a bad coach, he obviously is not, but his big time status is largely attributable to getting superb talent compared to that of his earlier years as well as having excellent coordinators over time. Clemson is the better team and is laying under a score at home. NC State has the goods to compete but Devin Leary will have his biggest challenge yet against the stout Clemson defense. The Play: Clemson-6.5 (1 unit)

Georgia @ Missouri (+28)

7:30 PM

Georgia looks close to being as dominant as last year and looks even better on offense. However, the ratings have this just a hair closer than the spread. However, fading a top dog like Georgia with a team that is not a show-in for a bowl appearance is not a wise betting strategy. The play: Pass

Florida International @ New Mexico State (-14.5)

8:00 PM

New Mexico State is one of the worst teams in FBS. Granted, the Aggies smacked Hawai’i last week, but the Rainbow Warriors are a total mess at the moment. New Mexico State should not be favored by over two scores against any opponent. Here the Aggies are laying exactly that; 14.5. However, the opponent is Florida International. So far, FIU has the lowest rating of any team I have ever given. The Panthers are terrible; their only win was over FCS Bryant by one point in Overtime. The play: Pass

Georgia Tech @ Pitt (-23.5)

8:00 PM

This spread is spot on even when accounting for the firing of Georgia Tech coach Geoff Collins. The play: Pass

Colorado @ Arizona (-17.5)

9:30 PM

Colorado is likely the worst Power 5 team this season. The Buffaloes are bad in nearly every single phase of the game and have replaced Arizona at the bottom of the PAC-12 totem pole. Arizona is not good enough to back laying this many points. The play: Pass

Arizona State @ USC (-26)

10:30 PM

No need to state more than the obvious; Arizona State is a dumpster fire right now. USC looks legit pulling out a really close game in Corvallis last week. The Trojans survived a scare in a game they likely would have lost under previous coaching staffs. It was an excellent win for USC even though they did not cover as road favorites. Look for the offense to bounce back this week. The play: USC-26 (1 unit)

Stanford @ Oregon (-17)

11:00 PM

The spread is dead on for this game. The play: Pass