WEEK 4 BETS
WEEK 4 BETS
West Virginia @ Virginia Tech (+1.5)
7:30 PM
Both teams used last week to beat up on FCS teams. West Virginia has been volatile so far this year and Virginia Tech has not started the Brent Pry era well. Neither of these teams are great bets in this situation; therefore, I’d back the home dog only for the smallest of money. However, a pass is in order as the ratings have the Mountaineers favored by three but West Virginia is not good enough to back as a road favorite. The play: Pass
7:30 PM
Coastal Carolina won a mistake filled home game in Week 3 against the lowly Buffalo Bulls. The Chanticleers were not able to get it together in enough time to cover the two score spread. Still, Coastal dominated statistically and won the game by more than a score. Georgia State inexplicably lost to a terrible Charlotte team. Georgia State moved the ball easily on the non-existent 49ers defense, but barely got any stops of their own in the 42-41 loss. This game offers a good test in the fickleness of gambling on sports. Despite the bad result last week, Georgia State remains a good bet here. A decent home underdog on a weeknight is typically one of the most solid bets in college football. The ratings have this contest at pick, but waiting for some public money to come in on the better known Coastal team could prove prudent. The play: Georgia State+3 if you can get that. (2 units)
Friday, Sept 23rd
7:00 PM
Both Virginia and Syracuse come into Week 4 off of tight home wins that easily could have gone the other way. The Cavaliers’ offense is in shambles; Quarterback Brennan Armstrong has regressed so far this year. Whether the regression is due to learning a new system or that the strong armed passer has simply gotten worse is up for debate. Either way, the Virginia offense cannot be relied on for the time being. Meanwhile, Syracuse beat Purdue at home for one of the more memorable wins in program history. The final quarter featured the majority of the game’s scoring for both sides and the final minute saw numerous impactful penalties go against Purdue. I am not sure if the Orange win without some of those calls. Regardless, Syracuse made the plays it had to to win the game. My ratings have this spread at 10.5 in favor of Syracuse so there is no bet to be made at -11. I cannot trust Virginia until they show more and Syracuse has the potential to be a legitimate threat to win 9 games. However, I am not yet convinced. The play: Pass
8:00 PM
Nevada is not exactly a good football team this year. Ken Wilson has a big rebuilding job on his hands as the miserly offense demonstrates weekly. The Wolf Pack regularly struggle to score and were predictably shut out at Iowa last week. Air Force can move the ball with ease against lesser defenses. The Falcons had a tough time converting third downs last week at Wyoming. The Cowboy defense is usually stout at home so it was not totally shocking to see Air Force play poorly on offense. Here, the excellent Haaziq Daniels should carve up the Nevada defense. The spread is large but it would not be surprising to see Nevada flirt with being shut out a second week in a row. The play: Air Force-24 (1 unit)
9:00 PM
UTEP has not met preseason expectations so far in 2022. The Miners have lacked the offensive production anticipated from their experienced quarterback and running back. UTEP was beaten handily by New Mexico last week and could not move the ball, all but abandoning the run in the second half. Boise State easily defeated New Mexico on the road two weeks ago and beat FCS UT-Martin last week. Let’s make this game easy: Dana Dimel is a better coach than Andy Avalos. Despite the talent gap, UTEP is a decent bet here. An outright win for the Miners would be surprising, but a cover should not be asking that much. The play: UTEP+15.5 (1 unit)
Saturday, Sept 24th
Noon
The ratings have this spread spot on. Therefore; no bet here. The play: Pass
Noon
There is no need to look deeply into Clemson’s defense: it is stellar as usual. Conversely, the offense leaves much to be desired. Almost everyone on that side of the ball has underperformed. Quarterback DJ Uiagalelei has not met expectations in his time at Clemson. This game is big. A potential CFP spot for Clemson is on the line and the crowd in Winston-Salem will be ready. Will the Clemson offense? Wake Forest survived against Liberty by a missed two point conversion at the end of the game. If Liberty had converted, this spread might be much higher. Dave Clawson is a good coach and will have a plan to keep this one close for a while. Wake’s defense is not the best, and Clemson always has the talent to be elite. Those are both reasons to not back Wake. However, it comes down to the odds given and 7.5 is a lot for a quality home team to be getting regardless of how they performed the week prior. The play: Wake Forest+7.5 (2 units)
Noon
Duke and Kansas both enter undefeated as surprise teams so far in 2022. Mike Elko has transformed Duke’s defense so far, albeit against rather poor competition. Likewise, Lance Leipold has done wonders with Kansas as they are efficient running the football and can score lots of points. Here, the line movement suggests early bettors believe in Duke’s defense more than Kansas’s offense. My ratings have Kansas laying 9.5 but the spread has come down since opening at 9. The line movement is tough and it might still be a bit early to back the Jayhawks as a favorite. But, Kansas has faced better competition than Duke, is home, and will have the best player on the field in quarterback Jalon Daniels. A small bet on Kansas laying under 7 would be fair. Until it gets there, this is a pass. The play: Pass
Noon
The Chippewas will have a tough time moving the ball against the excellent Penn State defense. Penn State has clobbered opponents this year except for their opener at Purdue. There is a chance the Nittany Lions have a bit of a let down after beating up on Auburn last week. Still, Penn State has enough talent to beat up on the best of MAC teams. Lew Nichols III is an excellent running back for Central Michigan, but the spread needs to be higher to back Central Michigan confidently. The play: Pass
Noon
Maryland takes its explosive offense to the Big House to take on Michigan in both squads’ Big Ten openers. Michigan destroyed UConn last week. The Wolverines easily could have won by as much as they wanted. Maryland won a shootout at home against SMU. Taulia Tagovailoa looks spectacular for the Terps, but Michigan will be the best defense he has faced so far this year by far. Maryland lacks a Big Ten level defense. Michigan loves winning big and this week should be no exception. Do not be surprised to see Maryland hang for a while and their offense is the exact type that strikes fear into gamblers late in the game when the back door is open. Still, Michigan is the more complete team and seems to be taking a no nonsense approach to this season. The play: Michigan-17 (1 unit)
Noon
Buffalo visits Eastern Michigan in some early season MAC action in Week 4. The Bulls come in off a decent effort against a lackadaisical Coastal Carolina. Buffalo did not come close to winning but did cover in part thanks to four first half fumbles by Coastal Carolina. The Bulls were dominated statistically but hung in for a while on the scoreboard. Eastern Michigan beat Arizona State on the road in a victory that was the final straw for Herm Edwards. Arizona State departed with the coach after the game. Eastern Michigan played well for three quarters two weeks ago on the road against Louisiana, so the Eagles are playing pretty good football at the moment. The ratings have Eastern Michigan favored by nine at home and they have a much better coaching staff. However, will they come out slow after two games that surely had their emotions high? That is tough to predict. The number is tough and Eastern Michigan still has a poor defense. Buffalo is tough to bet for numerous reasons as well, but the spread is relatively fair. Only a small bet is in order here. The play: Eastern Michigan-6 (1 unit)
Noon
Kent State finally got a break from a grueling schedule last week when they beat FCS member LIU. Unfortunately, the schedule returns to being as tough as possible when the Golden Flashes head to Athens to take on top ranked Georgia. The Bulldog defense looks just as good as last year. Kent State will not be able to rely on its patented Flash Fast offense against this defense filled with NFL talent. Predictably, the spread is massive. My ratings have Georgia giving “only” 41.5, but there is no use fading the top dog. The play: Pass
Noon
Ames hosts an excellent coaching matchup in Week 4 between Dave Aranda and Matt Campbell. Both coaches have succeeded at schools where recruiting is traditionally difficult. However, both have gotten to the Big XII championship game and Aranda won it last year. The spread is tight as the game should be as well. Each team dispatched with some of the lesser G5 teams last week; both covered big spreads at home. The ratings have Baylor slightly favored. Therefore, the Bears getting three are the bet here. It’s a good spread betting opportunity and Baylor’s defense is good enough for the Cyclones to have trouble moving the ball. Iowa State lost some really good talent this year and they will need to prove they are the real deal. Baylor has proven themselves time and again since Aranda’s arrival, and their only surprising big loss was a late kickoff at BYU two weeks ago; a very difficult spot. Keep an eye on the line of scrimmage; it should reveal the better team early in the game. The play: Baylor+3 (2 units)
Noon
Missouri comes to Auburn looking to catch the Tigers still on the way down this year. Auburn got steamrolled last week at home against Penn State. At no point did they look competitive. The team is a mess and the quarterback position might be the worst in the SEC. Bryan Harsin’s style and demeanor never seemed to fit the program and he has not been able to adapt to the conference. I do not predict he will remain the coach beyond this year absent a massive turnaround or a win in the Iron Bowl. Patience is not a virtue among the Auburn faithful. Meanwhile, Missouri is not a very good team. Mizzou’s coach, Eli Drinkwitz, has faced a situation similar to that of Harsins; he just has not seemed to fit at the school for whatever reason. On ratings alone, Auburn is the bet here. But - and this is a big BUT - Auburn is a mess at the moment. This game is a small bet relying on Auburn being able to simply tackle more than Mizzou. The play: Auburn-7 (1 unit)
Noon
The ratings have this at pick. TCU looks to be settling in nicely to the Sonny Dykes era. Meanwhile, SMU will want revenge against their former coach. This game should be a good watch, but I feel uneasy betting on either side in a game where emotions should be heightened. They play: Pass
Bowling Green @ Mississippi State (-30)
Noon
Bowling Green visits SEC member Mississippi State in Week 4. The Falcons come off a shocking win over Marshall a week after the Thundering Herd stunned Notre Dame. Bowling Green has not had a win that big in quite some time. I suspect Marshall got caught overlooking their MAC opponent. Meanwhile, Mississippi State lost at LSU after having a bad fourth quarter where Mike Leach’s air raid really struggled getting first downs. Obviously, Mississippi State had talent light years better than Bowling Green. The spread is large, and my ratings have the gap even wider. Mississippi State has a big game next week against Texas A&M setting up what could be a classic sandwich game (i.e. playing an unexciting opponent after a deflating loss or close game and before a big matchup with a rival or marquee opponent). Therefore, Mississippi State only merits a small bet here. The play: Mississippi State-30 (1 unit)
2:00 PM
My ratings have Temple only giving three to lowly UMass. However, UMass is terrible and should not be backed at any cost. The play: Pass
2:00 PM
The Colorado Buffaloes are a mess right now and coach Karl Dorrell’s status is being debated in Boulder. UCLA nearly lost to Sunbelt member South Alabama last week. The Bruins are much better than the showed last week and the Jaguars are on the rise, but the talent UCLA should have at least won that game going away in the fourth. My opinion of Chip Kelly as a coach has flip flopped at times during his career and I am currently unsure of his abilities. I am not unsure of UCLA’s offensive abilities. The Bruins have playmakers. Colorado on the other hand, has no playmakers on either side of the ball. This game could get ugly but laying three scores on a road team in conference play is not particularly shrewd. The play: Pass
3:30 PM
This game can be simply evaluated by comparing ratings and the spread. The ratings have Miami favored by 35.5 while the spread is -26.5. Therefore, Miami would be a good bet up to -30.5. So, Miami is the bet, albeit not a large one. The play: Miami-26.5 (1 unit)
3:30 PM
James Madison looks to make some noise and notch its first big win as an FBS member. Appalachian State will play the role of Goliath for once. JMU has looked terrific against lesser teams thus far, but the certainty with which they can be assigned an accurate power rating is lacking for now. Appalachian State’s season has already been a roller coaster ride through just three games. This game could be very good, but I feel I may have JMU underrated drastically based on the spread and subsequent line movement. The play: Pass
3:30 PM
Minnesota lost its best wide receiver in Chris Autman-Bell this week. The star wide out will miss the rest of the season. The Golden Gophers should be okay as their offense relies heavily on the run game. The fantastic workhorse running back, Mo Ibrahim, will do his best to keep the offense churning out points. Minnesota has looked terrific so far. Michigan State was clobbered at Wasington in Week 3 and the final score was closer than the actual game was. PJ Fleck is an excellent coach and Mel Tucker seems quite overrated by the public. Jayden Reed, Michigan State’s own star wide receiver, is also facing injuries after not even making the trip to Seattle last week. My ratings have the Spartans favored by three, however I have not factored in injuries. Minnesota will show if they are the real deal this week and I think they might be the class of the Big Ten West. However, laying three on the road at a decent Big Ten program is not the best betting move, while Michigan State has too many concerns at the moment to be backed with conviction. The play: Pass
3:30 PM
FIU is an automatic blind fade at the moment. The ratings have WKU laying only 27, but FIU might be the worst defensive FBS team I have ever seen. The Panthers cannot tackle and are not of the caliber necessary to compete at the FBS level. FIU would have trouble with a mid tier IVY League team. The play: WKU-31.5 (1 unit)
3:30 PM
North Texas must play better defense to not get blown out by Memphis. The Mean Green could not stop a nosebleed last week at UNLV. Meanwhile, their typically dependable quarterback, Austin Aune, threw two picks to a less than stellar UNLV defense. Memphis comes in off a sloppy win over Arkansas State. The Tigers are a ragtag mix of average units all over the field. North Texas should be able to score enough to stay in it, but will the defense cooperate on their end? That remains to be proven. The ratings have this at Memphis-6.5 and Memphis is not the most dependable favorite. I do think Seth Litrell is a better coach than Silverfield, but the lack of a competent defense is not reassuring by any means. The play: UNT+13 (1 unit)
3:30 PM
Texas is much more talented than Texas Tech and can actually tackle. The Horns are prone to mental lapses and let down performances but have played focused so far this season. Texas Tech reportedly has some injury problems and are still a team transitioning to a new staff. The play: Texas-6.5 (3 units)
3:30 PM
Florida was lucky to scrape by AAC member South Florida last week and must get better quarterback play to contend this week. The defense needs improvement but that might be moot this week in Knoxville; The Vols play shootouts that resemble basketball games on turf. Josh Heupel is doing a good job at Tennessee and hopes to have the talent to make a big leap this year. I will say this, Tennessee appears to have the goods. However, it is advisable to wait for a team to prove they are the real deal before moving the rating higher than what is typical of the program. Therefore, the Gators are the smart bet. Maybe Florida falls flat on its face this week, but they are a decent wager if getting over a full score. The play: Florida+10.5 (2 units)
3:30 PM
By now everyone knows all about Notre Dame’s struggles so far this season. There is no need to belabor the point here. North Carolina has won two games against FBS competition by one score or less and blew out FCS Florida A&M in Week 0. The Tar Heels are probably an average to below average ACC team and have yet to show they can tackle enough to win against better programs. The ratings have Notre Dame favored by 2.5 on the road. Perhaps the Irish have further to fall in the ratings; I am not so sure. I have Notre Dame rated the lowest I ever have. Thus, taking the Irish +1.5 on the road is the play. The play: Notre Dame+1.5 (1 unit)
3:30 PM
Toledo visits San Diego State to finish non conference play. The Rockets got throttled at Ohio State last week and will relish the drop in competition. Meanwhile, San Diego State is off to a rough start this season. The Aztecs have quarterback issues and were not competitive in either game against FBS opponents so far. Generally, the Aztecs defense would be able to completely stop a MAC team. Here, Toledo is my top rated MAC squad by a noticeable margin. Jason Candle is doing a good job and the team possess an above average MAC level defense. I have the game pick, but with the quarterback issues SDSU is having, it might be best to sit this one out. The play: Pass
3:30 PM
Indiana has regressed so much from just a few seasons ago. It is tough to watch the program almost immediately descend back to the bottom of the Big Ten after several excellent years. Regardless, Cincinnati could clobber the Hoosiers. My ratings have the Bearcats favored by 20, but something seems off about the line. Perhaps, Cincinnati is still living off last year, or maybe Indiana is underperforming and will regress to the mean. Either way, there are better wagers to make. The play: Pass
4:00 PM
Georgia Tech head coach Geoff Collins cannot seem to get anything out of the low level of talent currently fielded by the Yellowjackets. Unfortunately, that resulted in regular blow outs and lacking any real competitiveness. UCF seems to have woken up while playing Florida Atlantic. The Owls may have been just what UCF needed to get their season going. Georgia Tech is one of my lowest rated P5 teams with little on offense, poor line play, and almost nothing at the skill positions. The Knights have good linemen and average to above average talent everywhere else. Gus Malzhan is a good coach when he gets a team rolling. My ratings have UCF favored by more than four scores, but I am not convinced laying this many points on a G5 against a P5 is prudent. Let’s find out: The play: UCF-20.5 (1 unit) *A previous edition stated that Collins had already been fired*
4:00 PM
My ratings have Ole Miss favored by 23. There is little value here, but I think I may have the Rebels underrated. Regardless, Lane Kiffin seems to really enjoy running the score up. Tulsa comes off a big win against soon to be FBS member Jacksonville State. However, I have Tulsa lower than usual and below average performances to Wyoming and NIU leave much to be desired from the defense. Philip Montgomery is a good coach and the hook on the high side of 21 could be a killer, so this bet will not be large. The play: Ole Miss-21.5 (1 unit)
4:00 PM
Oregon looks to build off a convincing win over BYU last week by winning in Pullman against Washington State. Jake Dickert has done a good job with the Cougars and the defense looks terrific. A big win at Wisconsin and a convincing home win over Colorado State were big answers after barely scraping by FCS Idaho in Week 1. Oregon got blown out by Georgia in Week 1 but has looked good since. This will be a big road test for Dan Lanning and the coach will need to figure out how Bo Nix can beat the solid COugar defense. Nix has the experience in places harder to play than Pullman, but his accuracy seems to always falter at the most important moments. Keep an eye on Washington State’s quarterback, Cameron Ward. The FCS transfer is raw but should improve dramatically over the course of the year. Normally, I would back the dog here but the ratings have Oregon favored by more than the spread. Something seems off about this game and there are better opportunities elsewhere. The play: Pass
5:30 PM
The Golden Bears’ defense is very good. The Golden Bears’ offense is average at best. Arizona is average when in possession, albeit improved from last season. Still, the Cal defense has the ability to really limit scoring against most opponents. This is a really good coaching matchup and I will lay the favorite. The play: Cal-3 (3 units)
6:00 PM
Rice has played well so far despite their lack of serious talent. One reliable receiver is basically all the Owls have on offense and the defense is simply average for a CUSA team. Houston has drastically better talent. However, the Cougars have played haphazardly so far this year and seemed overwhelmed at times on defense. Still, a focused Houston team could destroy Rice. I actually have Mike Bloomgren rated higher as a coach against Dana Holgorsen and I have Rice as only a ten point dog (without Houston getting the benefit of HFA). The play: Rice+17.5 (1 unit)
6:00 PM
This game can be easily analyzed. Navy is absolutely terrible so far this season. ECU is playing to the higher end of their ratings under coach Mike Houston. I have East Carolina favored by 18.5, but have an inkling they might blow out the Midshipmen. Navy does run the triple option of which I am typically weary of fading. However, the usual efficiency is missing so far from the Navy offense. The team did have a bye and hopefully used it to improve but they will need to prove it first. East Carolina has a veteran quarterback who can tear Navy’s defense to shreds. The ratings difference calls for a bet but the fear of the triple option renders is less than full. The play: East Carolina-17 (2 units)
6:00 PM
Arkansas State appears to be improving each week under Butch Jones. The RedWolves moved the ball a little against the much better Ohio State and then hung with Memphis on the road until the final half of the fourth quarter. Old Dominion is playing stellar defense and almost completed a Virginia exacta by defeating Virginia Tech and only losing to Virginia by a last second field goal. The Monarchs have almost no offense at all and cannot be trusted to pick up critical third downs. I have ODU favored by 12.5 but do not trust the offense to score often enough to win by that many points. The Monarchs are not the type of team to back as a favorite and that fact makes this game playable only if one prefers Arkansas State. The play: Pass
6:00 PM
Ball State is not the worst team in FBS but I have them rated as the worst team in the MAC’s Western division. Georgia Southern had a big win against Nebraska two weeks ago but stumbled against the habitually reliable UAB last week. I think the oddsmakers are overreacting to Clay Helton’s impact on the Eagles so far, but Ball State is not a great road bet. The Sunbelt looks to be in the higher end of the G5 this year and MAC teams rarely play well against teams that can score. Still, the ratings have Ball State getting only 7.5, however much I lack confidence in the Cardinals. The play: Ball State+10 (1 unit)
6:00 PM
The line has moved up since opening and I have it where it opened. However, Akron cannot be bet right now. The Zips are bad and it seems Hugh Freeze might have a pretty good team on his hands at Liberty this season. The play: Pass
7:00 PM
Both Marshall and Troy come into their Week 4 matchup off heartbreaking losses. Marshall inexplicably lost to Bowling Green a week after winning in South Bend while Troy lost on a Hail Mary that did not even reach the end zone in the air. However, the box score tells a different story in each game. Marshall statistically beat up on Bowling Green and without watching the game I truly am not sure how the Herd lost the game. On the other side, Troy was outgained by Appalachian State convincingly (partly due to the game winning hail mary pass) and the Torjans failed to even amass 1.7 yards per carry on the ground. Troy did commit only two penalties which is impressive. Still, neither the Marshall loss nor the Troy close defeat were entirely accurate. Here, I have Marshall favored by 6.5. I would have laid three on the Herd but the line was bet to 3.5. I will bet if it goes back down to three, but for now it is a pass. The play: Pass (wait and see if -3 becomes available)
7:00 PM
Northern Illinois lost to Vanderbilt at home after blowing a second half lead. Kentucky shut out FCS Youngstown State and has Ole Miss on deck. The Wildcats will certainly be thinking more about the Rebels than the Huskies, but the Kentucky talent is so far superior to NIU. Plus the style Kentucky plays should allow it to run all over NIU. However, NIU lost Rocky Lombardi in the game last week; a fact that certainly contributed to their blown lead. Still, Lombardi is an average quarterback who does not face defenses near the caliber of Kentucky’s. His status remains uncertain as of the time of this being written. The play: Kentucky-25.5 (1 unit)
7:00 PM Arlington, TX
This game is very difficult to handicap. Texas A&M has not shown an ability to score much at all. However, the Aggies have faced tough opponents so far. Arkansas almost got caught last week looking ahead to this matchup and needed a terrific fourth quarter to defeat former coach Bobby Petrino and FCS Missouri State. I do not like what I have seen from the Razorbacks’ defense so far but am confident coach Pittman will have them focused for this big rivalry. The ratings have A&M favored by 3.5 and they are laying less than a field goal so I have no issue backing the favorite here. The play: Texas A&M-1.5 (2 units)
7:00 PM
UNLV smacked North Texas last week while Utah State had a bye. The Rebels look improved for sure, but are they ready to win at a better program? Even though Utah State seems way down so far this year, I am not so sure they should be giving three at home. However, Utah State injuries are mounting and it might be best to skip this game. The play: Pass
7:00 PM
Iowa finally scored more points last week in a game delayed for hours by lightning. The Hawkeyes managed to cover when they scored a fourth quarter touchdown around 1:00 am in Iowa City. Rutgers struggled with Temple, winning 16-14 at home. Rutgers is a tough team to bet or fade, but Iowa’s offense still cannot be trusted, especially on the road. An Iowa blowout win would not be at all surprising and a shutout is on the table. The play: Iowa-7.5 (1 unit)
7:00 PM
South Alabama seems to be the new kid on the block in the Sunbelt. The Jaguars are playing very well and nearly defeated UCLA at the Rose Bowl last week. Louisiana Tech has a respectable offense but might have a hard time against the good South Alabama defensive front. Still, two scores seems to be a lot between these two programs. The ratings have this one just a tad tighter than the spread so a small bet is in order. The play: Louisiana Tech+13 (1 unit)
7:00 PM
Southern Miss visits New Orleans to take on a Tulane win coming off its biggest win in a while. The Green Wave notched a victory against P5 Kansas State. The Green Wave looked good on defense and were able to score when absolutely necessary to win outright as 14 point underdogs. Meanwhile, Southern Miss easily handled FCS opponent Northwestern State. Here, Tulane might be looking ahead to AAC rival Houston and might let down a bit against an overlooked opponent. Southern Miss has improved this year by taking a good Liberty squad to OT and covered a large spread against Miami. This game is tough to handicap. The ratings have Tulane favored by 19.5, but the let down look ahead spot is concerning. Plus, did I overreact to Tulane’s nice win and excessively increase their number? The play: Pass
7:30 PM
Florida Atlantic seems to have a ceiling; the Owls either crush lesser opponents with worse talent, or the Owls lose to smarter teams that are much better coached. Here, Purdue has better talent and a much smarter coach. Jeff Brohm is significantly better than Willie Taggart. FAU was torched by UCF’s offense last week, and Purdue is even better when in possession. The Boilermakers come off a brutal last minute loss at Syracuse that involved multiple big penalties. Purdue easily could have won the game. Here, I have Purdue favored by slightly more than the spread and I think the team will be focused after the excruciating defeat last week. The play: Purdue-20 (2 units)
7:30 PM
Purely a ratings play here: I have the Buckeyes favored by 20 over Wisconsin. Thus, only the smallest of wagers is appropriate. The play: Ohio State-19 (1 unit)
7:30 PM
Charlotte comes to South Carolina after a big win at Georgia State. The 49ers’ defense is atrocious. The offense can score when facing lesser defenses. Here, that will not be the case. South Carolina has a good offense (when not facing top ranked Georgia) and the Gamecock defense is fair for an SEC East squad. Charlotte will have trouble moving the ball if South Carolina is focused. For sure, it will be tough for the Gamecocks to get up for Charlotte after playing Georgia, but the blowout loss likely has the team wanting to return to play as soon as possible. Meanwhile, there is no look ahead opponent worthy of stealing the team’s attention this week. The play: South Carolina-22.5 (2 units)
7:30 PM
There are injuries and concerns on both sides of this game to the point of rendering it not particularly wager worthy. The play: Pass
7:30 PM
UConn does not have the talent to compete with upper end P5 teams. NC State came into the season with possible CFP aspirations. The Wolf Pack are unbeaten even after a Week 1 scare at East Carolina. Since then, NC State has beaten an FCS opponent and Texas Tech. The offense seems off but the defense remains rock solid. THe talent gap is enormous this week. NC State does play Clemson next week so attention will likely be elsewhere. Still, Dave Doeren does a pretty good job of getting his team to remain focused on the task at hand. However, the ratings are not that far off the actual spread and the look ahead aspect of the game is a worry. The play: NC State-39 (1 unit)
7:30 PM
Vanderbilt is improved this year but is still not ready to take on the top teams in FBS. It will be a while longer before that is the case, if ever. Alabama is still Alabama and played exactly to their rating last week against the inferior ULM. The ratings have this one at 49, but I am hesitant to lay a number as big as this one, especially when Alabama has a massive SEC West matchup with Arkansas next week. The play: Pass
7:30 PM
New Mexico has a pretty good defense but little ability to move the ball when in possession. LSU is a tough team to figure out so far in Brian Kelly’s first season at the helm. The Tigers should be able to score on the Lobo defense and might easily attain a shutout. The ratings have this one about right so it is a small play at best. However, I generally avoid fading a competent defense; even when the talent gap is massive. The play: Pass
8:00 PM
Both Hawai’i and New Mexico State are terrible this year. However, New Mexico State should never be favored against a Mountain West team. This is another pure ratings play. Hawai’i+5 (1 unit)
8:00 PM
I have this game right on the number. Therefore, a bet on the underdog or a pass is in order. ULM does not have the talent to compete in many games and Louisiana is off a bad loss at Rice. The Cajuns should dominate on the line of scrimmage. This is a rivalry game and those are often unpredictable. The play: Pass
8:00 PM
Boston College is having a tough season that is not meeting expectations. Even with the Eagles’ win last week against FCS Maine, BC only won by 21. Florida State, on the other hand, is exceeding expectations so far. However, the Seminoles’ FBS games have all come down to one or two possessions. FSU could easily massacre BC, but laying this many points on a team who constantly plays close games is not prudent. Meanwhile, my ratings have this one a tad closer than the spread. I am reluctant to bet Boston College after they have failed to meet expectations in two games already this season. The play: Pass
8:00 PM
Oklahoma appears to be the real deal this year. The Sooners are good on both sides of the ball and Brent Vanables fits the job like a glove. Kansas State has given OU trouble in the recent past, but not consistently. Chris Klieman is a good coach but his talent is really overmatched here. The Wildcats lost at home to Tulane last week and quarterback Adrian Martinez is having a tough time with his new team. The defense is good but has to step up against the better opponent here. The ratings have Oklahoma favored by 19 so the margin of safety is enough for a small wager on the home team. The play: Oklahoma-13 (2 units)
9:30 PM
USC is off to an excellent start this year. The offense looks like a machine and the defense is stout enough to allow the offense to relax when in possession. The play book is really open in LA. Oregon State is an excellent running team that can rack up yards on the ground but also rely on its experienced passer to throw the ball deep when needed. This is a very interesting game. I have USC favored by 7.5 but am not comfortable laying the favorite on the road at night against this opponent. Oregon State has the potential to win outright, but USC could just as easily run the Beavers off the field. I have no solid opinion to back here. The play: Pass
10:15 PM
Wyoming and BYU meet in Provo for an old Mountain West matchup. The Cowboys have looked good since getting blown out by Illinois in Week 0. Craig Bohl has his typical tough team that plays excellent defense at home. Even the offense has looked good at times. Running back Titus Swen is playing well and the offensive line is getting a decent push. BYU has a decisive home field edge but the Cougars’ top two wide receivers missed last game and might miss this affair as well. The ratings have BYU as a 23 point favorite, so the difference is not enough to warrant a bet. The play: Pass
10:30 PM
Stanford comes to Seattle off a bye and historically has not fared well when visiting Washington. Meanwhile, Washington looks very good this year with new coach Kalen DeBoer. Transfer quarterback Michael Penix has done well leading the Husky offense to sure wins so far. Time will tell how much the defense has improved, if at all. The Cardinal have shown they can score points but will they be able to handle the sure to be boisterous crowd? The coaching matchup certainly gives the home team an edge; David Shaw has shown to be not very adaptable and stubborn at times. Still, the spread seems a bit high and my ratings have this one closer to a one score difference. I am willing to find out if Washington is the real deal and back the underdog. Expect a high scoring game. The play: Stanford+13.5 (3 units)
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Both Western Michigan and San Jose State are difficult to rate so far this year as both teams have had volatile results. Western Michigan played alright against Power 5 teams Michigan State and Pitt, but never really competed late in the game. The Broncos allowed 30 points to lowly MAC opponent Ball State but won the game nevertheless. Tim Lester is a solid coach and always gets his teams to overachieve. Meanwhile, San Jose State had trouble getting past FCS Portland State in their opener, winning by only four. Then, the Spartans nearly upset Auburn the very next week. San Jose State had last week off. Here, San Jose State might be in the top half of the Mountain West like they were in the shortened 2020 season. Plus, Mountain West talent is typically much better than MAC talent. Still, Western Michigan is a respectable program with a good coach and is getting points at an unproven opponent. The play: Western Michigan+7 (1 unit)
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Arizona State is a total mess right now and is dealing with a coaching change. I downgraded the Sun Devils quite a bit after the loss to MAC member Eastern Michigan in Week 3. Everyone has seen the video of Herm Edwards apparently being fired on the field after the loss. On the other hand, Utah is having a good start to the year and seems focused on not getting a second loss that would surely eliminate the Utes from CFP contention. This team is good and I would not put excessive weight on the Florida loss. Laying over two scores on the road is tough but Utah has the talent and discipline to smack Arizona State. The play: Utah-15 (2 units)
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