WEEK 3 BETS

 

WEEK 3 BETS

Betting Info as of 9/13 per Bovada; lines are listed with Home Teams
All Times are Eastern

Friday, Sept 16th

Florida State @ Louisville (+2.5)

7:30 PM 

Florida State is a surprising road favorite in Louisville. The Seminoles are off a bye following the eventful win against LSU in Week 1 in which they benefited from multiple strange plays and occurrences. Louisville is good enough to be a home favorite against a comparable conference opponent. The Cardinals have had a tough time scoring but still have Malik Cunningham, who will be the best player on the field in this one. The line is a head scratcher and might be an overreaction to the FSU win against LSU. Louisville has the upperhand on the sidelines, but FSU has a pretty good back seven that could stop Cunningham from getting loose on third downs. The ratings have Louisville favored by more than a field goal. Let’s see if FSU has truly turned a corner yet; my hunch says they haven’t. The play: Louisville+2.5 (1 unit)

Air Force @ Wyoming (+15)

8:00 PM

Air Force is flying high right now as veteran quarterback Haaziq Daniels continues leading an excellent rushing attack that chews up yards and clock with ease at times. The Falcons easily defeated Colorado last week and look to continue their winning ways on the road at Wyoming. Wyoming beat FCS Northern Colorado in Week 2. Wyoming lacks a trustworthy offense but coach Craig Bohl has the aplomb to muck games to Wyoming’s advantage. I really like Air Force this year; Troy Calhoun is a great coach; Daniels is a really good quarterback; the Falcons’ lines are solid. However, I am weary of laying over two scores on the road. My ratings have Air Force giving 16.5. If this spread was under 14, the favorite would be in play. Instead, save your money; Air Force will be a great bet more times this year. The play: Pass 

Saturday, Sept 17th

Purdue @ Syracuse (-1.5)

NOON

Purdue faces Syracuse with the Orange a slight favorite. Purdue is all offense and little to no defense; traits that tend to not fare well on the road. Alternatively, Syracuse keeps improving on its ground and pound offense while its quarterback shows more and more skill and smarts each week. Even Syracuse’s defense looks solid so far this season (granted last week’s pummeling of lowly UConn is not the biggest accomplishment). All of the above makes Syracuse the easy pick in this one. But before hitting “confirm bet,” one additional factor needs consideration; the coaching matchup. Dino Babers has struggled mightily at Syracuse. Jeff Brohm has been excellent at Purdue. The Orange are great at home lately and the dome is unfamiliar for Purdue. However, the coaching matchup leaves lots to be desired. Thus, only small money can be placed on Syracuse. The play: Syracuse -1.5 (1 unit)   

Oklahoma @ Nebraska (+11.5)

NOON

Nebraska begins the post-Frost era by welcoming old foe Oklahoma to Lincoln. Betting games after coaching changes is tough and gauging a team’s mindset is key. Oklahoma appears to have barely missed a beat with Brent Venables replacing Lincoln Riley. We can indeed say that Oklahoma is Oklahoma. On the other hand, Nebraska is completely reeling already. Without stating the obvious, Scott Frost’s absence will be meaningful to the 2022 trajectory of the Huskers. The offense looks improved under new OC Mark Whipple; the defense looks terrible. The spread seems to be reflecting Oklahoma’s and Nebraska’s relative strengths prior to the Huskers’s latest loss and coaching change. Simply put, Nebraska looks bad. I have yet to read any accounts claiming the players disliked Scott Frost; therefore there seems to be no great change of mindset among the team now that Frost is gone. Oklahoma has a really good offense and Venables has the defense clicking already; albeit against lesser competition. A blowout could be coming. However, tread lightly when betting games like this. The play: Oklahoma-11.5 (2 units)

Western Kentucky @ Indiana (-6.5)

NOON

My ratings have this one right on the number. In such cases, passing the game or backing the underdog are the best choices. Traditional handicapping becomes key. WKU is off a bye after throttling hapless Hawai’i in Week 1, and the Hilltoppers surely are not looking past a Big Ten opponent. Indiana allowed 22 points to lowly FCS Idaho last week and has CFP participant Cincinnati on deck. WKU is a solid CUSA program that regularly makes bowl games at seasons end, while Indiana is traditionally the Big Ten East doormat. Tom Allen was able to improve the program for a couple seasons though. The Hoosiers’ quarterback, Connor Bazelak, is not very good. WKU might have some trouble moving the ball but will get on the board enough to make a game of it; the Hilltoppers could even notch a road victory. Indiana needs to prove quite a bit before they can be bet habitually like they were only a few short seasons ago. The play: WKU+6.5 (1 unit)

UConn @ Michigan (-47.5)

NOON

My ratings have Michigan favored by 47.5 and that is the spread. There is no value in such a big spread. Michigan absolutely has the ability and power to beat UConn by as much as it wants. But like the Wolverines’ Week 2 win over Hawai’i, will they want to cover? UConn is struggling after looking acceptable against Utah State in Week 0 but only managed 28 in a home win against NEC member Central Connecticut and got run over by Syracuse in a no-doubt loss in Week 2. Michigan is fully capable of shutting out the overmatched Huskies, but this game is too uncertain to predict. The play: Pass

Cincinnati @ Miami, OH (+22)

NOON

Cincinnati remains a legitimate high level G5 team this year despite some massive roster losses. Luke Fickell is a really good coach who may prove this year he can recruit for more than one year. The RedHawks are a good program under Chuck Martin and getting three scores is a ton, even for a MAC team. However, without their quarterback (Brett Gabbert is out with an injury) it is doubtful that Miami has much of a chance. Betting games with injuries to key players is quite difficult. The play: Pass

Georgia @ South Carolina (+24.5)

NOON

Georgia is an elite team that can limit any opponent from scoring much at all. Offenses look almost embarrassed when coming off the field after going three and out multiple times. Gaining multiple first downs on a single drive seems to be an accomplishment against the Bulldogs’ defense. South Carolina is much better with the ball now that Spencer Rattler is throwing it. However, the Gamecock defense is not the best and has some big injuries after last week’s loss at Arkansas. Having said that, the large amount of points might be worth a small wager. Finally, we might see Spencer Rattler live up to his expectations. The play: South Carolina+24.5 (1 unit)

Texas State @ Baylor (-30)

NOON

Baylor laying 30 would not be a terrible bet; I have the Bears -34. However, the huge let down loss at BYU might have the team sleep-walking early against the much less interesting opponent. Still, Dave Aranda is a really good coach who will have his team focused. Texas State is near the bottom of FBS and is taking a gigantic leap in class after pummeling FIU in Week 2. The play: Baylor-30 (2 units)

Buffalo @ Coastal Carolina (-14)

1:00 PM

Buffalo is currently a mess. The Bulls lost to Patriot League team Holy Cross on a hail mary in Week 2. Stopping the complicated Coastal Carolina defense will be even more difficult. Coastal does not appear to be as strong as the last two seasons, but Jamey Chadwell and quarterback Grayson McCall will provide enough stability to score points all season. The Chanticleer defense is less reassuring. FCS member Gardner-Webb scored 27 and only lost by four points last week. So, is fourteen points too many for the Chanticleers to cover against a low end MAC opponent? No; the Chanticleers should run free all night and will confuse the outmatched defense and coaching staff of Buffalo for at least a full half. This one could get ugly. My ratings have Coastal favored by 17.5 so there is some value laying the favorite. There is no hiding that Coastal is no longer automatically a top Sunbelt team. But, a talented and experienced quarterback running an exotic offense is usually a solid bet. The favorite would be more enticing if the line was under ten, but fading poor MAC teams should pay off in the long run. The play: Coastal Carolina-14 (1 unit)

Old Dominion @ Virginia (-9.5)

2:00 PM

In-state rivalries provide some of the most fun to watch college football games. Old Dominion visiting Virginia will be no exception. The Monarchs already knocked off in-state opponent Virginia Tech in Week 1. Virginia looks to bounce back after a shellacking at Illinois in Week 2. The Cavaliers looked completely lost in the blowout and quarterback Brennan Armstrong seems to have regressed. The brilliant defense of Bret Bielema likely played a role in that development, along with first year Tony Elliot’s implementing a new system. Either way, Virginia looked awful. Still, Old Dominion is not much of an opponent. Despite the Week 1 upset of the Hokies, Old Dominion was beat up against East Carolina last week. The Monarchs lack a serious passing game and are average everywhere else for a bottom level Sunbelt team. Coach Ricky Rahne has done a commendable job but this game will be tougher than the Virginia Tech matchup. Plus, the Hoos will be well aware of that result. The coaching matchup leaves a lot to be desired for Virginia and neither team can really be trusted right now. The play: Pass

Rutgers @ Temple (+18)

2:00 PM

This game is only bettable if you like Rutgers. Temple is near the absolute bottom of FBS and Rutgers is 2-0 after a nice win at Boston College and a blowout win against FCS Wagner. Rutgers looks significantly better than last year but it is still too early to trust them. Fading Temple might be the way to go but there are better games on which to wager. My ratings have Rutgers favored by 13.5, so this is a pass. The play: Pass

Ohio @ Iowa State (-18)

2:00 PM

Iowa State played just well enough against the vaunted Iowa defense last week to notch a victory in their biggest rivalry game. The defense played great, but it is difficult to assess how good a defense is when playing the miserable Iowa offense. Still, Matt Campbell is a good coach who can blow out lesser opponents when his run first style is firing on all cylinders. Meanwhile, Ohio is a typical MAC team that barely tackles. The Bobcats beat Florida Atlantic to open the season and expectedly got blown out by Penn State. The Cyclones’ lines should destroy the severely outmatched Ohio lines. Campbell will have the team focused even after the big win. Iowa State needs as many wins as possible if it wants to assure a bowl appearance. Three full scores would be a better spread. The play: ISU-18 (3 units)

South Alabama @ UCLA (-15.5)

2:00 PM

UCLA is a talented bunch that can easily smack lesser teams. The Bruins do not always play the cleanest of games though. South Alabama is off a fairly impressive road victory against Central Michigan. The Jaguars bottled up Lew Nicholls III and forced the Chips to throw to try and catch up. Kane Wommack has put together a solid defense that will compete in the Sunbelt’s West division this year. My ratings have UCLA favored by 20.5; however, the spread really leaves the backdoor open. The Bruins could absolutely blow out South Alabama; but will they? A bet might be appropriate if the spread moves down but until it does this game is a pass. The play: Pass

Cal @ Notre Dame (-11)

2:30 PM

Drew Pyne will start for Notre Dame following Tyler Buchner’s shoulder injury late in the Irish’s upset loss to Marshall. Neither quarterback is particularly exciting and Notre Dame needs to get going on offense if it hopes to salvage the 2022 season. Cal lacks much of an offense as well and is going to really struggle to score points on the still solid Notre Dame defense. Notre Dame took a deep drop this week in the ratings but I still have them -22 against the likes of Cal in South Bend. There is value on taking the Irish here and I am willing to bet they are not as bad as the 0-2 record indicates. Meanwhile, Cal looked mediocre against a bottom level Mountain West team in UNLV. Cal possesses a really stout back seven on defense but I think the Irish should be able to handle them on the line of scrimmage. Marshall has a better offense than Cal and the Irish should shut down the Bears enough times to win by more than eleven. The coaching matchup might be more even that previously thought, but the talent gap is significant. Look for Notre Dame to notch their first win convincingly. The play: Notre Dame-11 (3 units)

Tulane @ Kansas State (-14)

3:00 PM

Tulane visits Kansas State for its first big matchup of 2022. The Green Wave crushed Independent UMass and FCS Alcorn State in Weeks 1 and 2. Now, coach Willie Fritz turns his attention to a solid Big 12 opponent who flaunts one of the best dynamic running backs in college football. Kansas State lacks a P5 threat at passer, despite landing the experienced Adrain Martinez in the portal. The Wildcats offensive strength lies in the aforementioned running back, Deuce Vaughn. Vaughn is electric and can make defensive coordinator’s heads spin. Expect K-State to feed Vaughn a lot in this game, while also trying to get Martinez some confidence after a less than stellar game against Missouri. Having said that, Tulane is a smart team and Willie Fritz is one of the best and most creative coaches in the country. The Green Wave competed with Oklahoma last year and easily covered. I do not expect Tulane to do well on either line of scrimmage but quarterback Michael Pratt has improved enough through raw experience to not get phased. Expect a smart game plan from the under the radar AAC contender. My ratings have this one much closer than the spread and early line movement seems to agree. The play: Tulane+14 (5 units)

North Texas @ UNLV (-3)

3:00 PM

This spread is a bit of a head scratcher. Yes, UNLV played Cal tough last week, plays in a better conference than North Texas, and North Texas lacks any semblance of a serious run defense. Still, laying three on a below average team with a bad coach is not a recipe for betting success. UNLV clearly has improved. But, North Texas has a better overall grasp of direction through Seth Litrell. The Mean Green have been to bowl games and regularly score lots of points; albeit in the lesser CUSA. My ratings have North Texas favored by seven on the road. I fully accept the chance of losing here and being dead wrong on my UNLV rating. That is a chance I will take with a small wager. The play: UNT+3 (3 units)

Ole Miss @ Georgia Tech (+16.5)

3:30 PM

The spread for this matchup is accurate. Ole Miss deserves to be favored by over two full scores on the road at a Power 5 program. Or maybe, Georgia Tech deserves to be getting 16.5 at home. Geoff Collins has barely improved the Yellowjackets since taking the job. In fact, Tech’s best player last year left for Alabama through the portal. Georgia Tech is lacking on offense but looked decent for a while on defense against Clemson. Still, the Yellowjacket defense allowed 17 to FCS Western Carolina last week. Ole Miss is better on defense than they have been in prior years, but a quarterback controversy has developed. Lane Kiffin has yet to name a starter this week. My ratings have the Rebels favored by 17 so there is no value on the line. However, I think Ole Miss is a significantly better program than Georgia Tech at this juncture. Thus, a small play is in order. The play: Ole Miss-16.5 (2 units)

Colorado @ Minnesota (-28)

3:30 PM

Colorado is a mess right now. The Buffaloes got stomped by Air Force last week, losing 41-10. Karl Dorrell has a lot to fix before one can confidently back this team. Meanwhile, Minnesota is the total opposite. The Gophers can run the ball at will but still lack the ability to have long explosive runs consistently against lesser teams. However, Minnesota is able to pick up more than enough yards each carry. PJ Fleck has a good team that will be wonderful to bet on as an underdog later in the year. For now, I will pass. My ratings have Minnesota -26 but there is no way one can confidently back Colorado. The play: Pass

New Mexico State @ Wisconsin (-37.5)

3:30 PM

Wisconsin looked less than impressive last week against Washington State. However, Wisconsin statistically smacked Wazzu. The Badgers throttled the Cougars in every way except where it matters most; the scoreboard. The Wisconsin defense is still top-notch, and the offense did not play that badly. Some costly turnovers and only average quarterback play doomed any hopes for an easy win in Madison. Still, a home loss to not the best Washington State team is a big let down. The Badgers came nowhere close to covering the 17.5 point spread. New Mexico State comes to town in Week 3. The Aggies are one of the worst teams in FBS. Let’s keep this game simple. Wisconsin has size on the offensive line and talent at running back. The Badgers have a really good defense that can easily shut out very bad teams. New Mexico State is a very bad team. Therefore, I will gladly lay the points with Wisconsin and hopefully the Badgers come out steaming after the uber disappointing loss at home last week. The play: Wisconsin-37.5 (1 unit)

Vanderbilt @ Northern Illinois (-2.5)

3:30 PM

Vanderbilt looks drastically improved this year under smart coach Clark Lea. The Commodores are finally able to score some points, but the defense still cannot stop the opponent from scoring even more. It will take time, but Vandy will improve up to a limit for the program. Northern Illinois keeps chugging along the same way they always do. Rocky Lombardi is a good experienced quarterback who makes good decisions but otherwise lacks great talent. He is a good fit in the Huskies program. Vanderbilt has the coaching edge here and DeKalb is not the easiest place to play and it is unusual for an SEC team (even Vanderbilt) to be seen traveling to a MAC stadium. I have NIU winning by a lot more than the 2.5 being offered now, but I feel that Lea might have Vanderbilt ahead of schedule in the rebuild. The play: NIU-2.5 (2 units)

BYU @ Oregon (-3.5)

3:30 PM

BYU visits Eugene off a big OT win at home against Baylor. BYU appears to be real folks. Oregon beat down FCS opponent Eastern Washington a week after getting hammered against now top ranked Georgia. The spread appears about right; however Oregon’s rating might lack some accuracy as of now. This game will show if the numbers on these teams are fully adjusted to the reality of this season. BYU might again be playing in a candidate for best game of the week. Watch to see if BYU’s defensive line can handle the excellent offensive line of Oregon. If it can, BYU is a legitimate top 15 team and could go unbeaten. This one will be fun to watch. For now, this game is a pass or small bet at most. The play: Pass

Penn State @ Auburn (+3)

3:30 PM

Auburn getting three points at home would be an easy bet almost one hundred percent of the time if not for two factors: head coach Bryan Harsin and quarterback TJ Finley. I have Harsin rated as the worst coach in the SEC and Finley as the second worst quarterback in the SEC. Harsin is stuck in the past regarding tactics and overall strategy. Finley played better against San Jose State but Penn State is a big jump in class. It is nowhere close to a given that he will successfully handle the Manny Diaz defense that Penn State will put out there. Meanwhile, Penn State has a significantly better coach in James Franklin and my third ranked Big Ten defense. I hate this spot for Penn State though, plus I have Auburn only giving 1. Therefore, no bet in this game. The play: Pass

Troy @ Appalachian State (-12.5)

3:30 PM

College Gameday visits Boone after the Mountaineers’ huge upset at Texas A&M last week. The ‘Neers looked outstanding on defense in the big win and coach Shawn Clark was masterful in adjusting his game plan to the situation at hand. Meanwhile, Troy beat FCS Alabama A&M by 21. Jon Sumrall has Troy playing better than expected so far but this one will be a test. Appalachian State thrives off its home crowd and has largely dominated the conference since joining. However, Appalachian State generally plays to its competition and Troy is not the sexiest of opponents. Still, expect the boys from Boone to get up for this one. My ratings have Appalachian State favored by three full scores and the number available is not even two; I’ll lay it for a small amount. The play: App State-12.5 (2 units)

Georgia Southern @ UAB (-11.5)

3:30 PM

I’m not really sure what to make of these two teams right now and the spread is probably fair. I have UAB favored by 14.5 so there is a tiny bit of value on the favorite, but I’d be much more comfortable backing a number under a full score. The play: Pass

ULM @ Alabama (-49)

4:00 PM

My ratings have Alabama favored by 56 but that does not tell the full story. Alabama typically does not fall prey to let down games; the Crimson Tide are wildly talented and well coached; ULM is not remotely good. There is no value backing either side here. Bama is easily capable of being up 49 at halftime and their entire roster is better than ULM’s starters. Save your money for other games. The play: Pass

Kansas @ Houston (-9)

4:00 PM

Kansas is scoring points on the road under coach Lance Leipold. The defense is still lacking but the Jawhawks are capable of scoring with average teams. Houston (1-1), who came into the season with New Year's Six expectations, has little to show for two overtime efforts so far. The Cougars’ defense has not been as good as was projected and have trouble in spurts on offense. Houston quarterback Clayton Tune might have his best game of the year so far this week, but Kansas should be able to keep pace enough to stay within a score. Coach Leipold will start getting looks from more well funded programs if he can win some more games. It appears Kansas is ahead of schedule. The play: Kansas+9 (3 units)

Liberty @ Wake Forest (-16.5)

5:00 PM

This line appears to be spot on. My ratings have Wake Forest favored by 17. The play: Pass

Marshall @ Bowling Green (+16.5)

5:00 PM

Marshall moved up significantly in the ratings after last week’s massive victory in South Bend. Meanwhile, Bowling Green lost in seven overtimes to FCS Eastern Kentucky. Clearly, Bowling Green’s defense is severely lacking so I anticipate Marshall will run all over it. However, this is a potential huge let down game for the Thundering Herd. How does Coach Huff get his charges up for visiting Bowling Green after winning at Notre Dame just seven days earlier? That is no easy task and it will show how good of a coach Huff really is. I have Marshall favord by 23.5 on the road but am wondering if I may have overreacted when adjusting their rating after last week’s win. Having said that, Bowling Green is pitiful right now and can’t stop anything. The Falcons have next to nothing on offense save an experienced, yet talentless, quarterback. I will back the probable winner of this game and hope they cover the number easily. The play: Marshall-16.5 (1 unit)

Colorado State @ Washington State (-17)

5:00 PM

Two teams who have had wildly different starts to the season meetup for week 3 in Pullman. Colorado State began the Jay Norvell era with a blowout loss at Michigan and a surprisingly embarrassing loss at home to Middle Tennessee. On the other side, Washington State barely got by FCS Idaho to open the year but then shockingly beat Wisconsin in Madison to get to 2-0. Cameron Ward, an FCS transfer, looks very raw at quarterback for Washington State but improvement may come fast. The Cougar defense can force turnovers in droves and hopes Colorado State is loose with the ball this week. My ratings have Washington State favored slightly less than the offered number. However, the Rams will need to show they can both take care of the ball and stop the run consistently before I will back them. The play: Pass

Mississippi State @ LSU (+2.5)

6:00 PM

Mike Leach takes his Mississippi State Bulldogs to Baton Rouge to take on the new look LSU Tigers. My ratings have this spread about right. Much uncertainty surrounds LSU and I am not sure they are a good bet just yet. This belief is reflected in both the spread and line movement. Brian Kelly is a good coach but will he be able to keep his defense organized and aware enough to stop the air raid. Leach seems to have said air raid running on all cylinders and the Bulldog defense has the talent to contend with the entire SEC. This team might be much better than anticipated. This game should be watched to get a good grasp of each team’s relative strength going forward. However, I hate this spot and do not feel great backing either side in this matchup. The play: Pass

Texas Tech @ NC State (-10)

7:00 PM

Texas Tech won a hard fought OT victory last week against in-state rival Houston. Meanwhile, NC State had an easy time against FCS member Charleston Southern. NC State has a good coach, an experienced quarterback, can run the ball, and a very solid defense. The Wolf Pack want a statement win against a Power 5 program after barely beating ECU in Week 1. Texas Tech will be expected to move the ball but NC State can neutralize any Red Raider ball movement if they want. Dave Doeren should have the team focused on ready to roll. My ratings have NC State -22.5. That difference provides enough margin of safety for a somewhat confident bet. The play: NC State-10 (3 units) 

Toledo @ Ohio State (-32)

7:00 PM

Ohio State can easily blow out Toledo. However, Ohio State must be motivated to cover the spread. The Buckeyes failed to cover an even larger number last week seemingly through pure apathy. Not that one could blame them for not covering; Arkansas State is not a game for which a CFP contender would be expected to get up. Still, the Buckeyes easily won and were able to move on to bigger things. Toledo has the best defense in the MAC and will be highly motivated to play its best against the bigger brother opponent. Jason Candle has done a good job and is hoping he finally gets back to the MAC title game he won in 2017. To be clear, Toledo does not have the talent to compete with Ohio State. However, if the Rockets can catch Ohio State sleeping a few times they may be able to defeat the spread. My ratings have this spread about right and there is no value on this game. The play: Pass

Akron @ Tennessee (-47.5)

7:00 PM

No point in betting this one. The play: Pass

Arkansas State @ Memphis (-14)

7:00 PM

Memphis hosts Sunbelt member Arkansas State in Week 3. The Tigers come off an easy win at pitiful Navy. Meanwhile, Arkansas State lost big at Ohio State, although the Red Wolves did beat the large spread. Butch Jones is a decent coach and should have Arkansas State turned around in time, but the rebuild will not be complete over night. Memphis is a middle of the pack AAC team at the moment who will win big when they can. Bowl eligibility will not be given with a schedule in the American being what it is. Ryan Silverfield has me scratching my head at times but should be good enough to keep Memphis focused in this one. My ratings have Memphis favored by 17 so there is small value on the favorite and Arkansas State is an easy fade for the time being. The play: Memphis-14 (1 unit)

Charlotte @ Georgia State (-19)

7:00 PM

Georgia State showed a solid effort against North Carolina after making a third quarter comeback bid in Week 2. The Panthers lost by 7 but contained the Tar Heels enough to have a chance to win on the field. Charlotte is almost an automatic blind fade at the moment. Will Healy’s job might be on the ropes if he cannot get things turned around. I have Georgia State favored by 22 so I will bet small on the home team. The play: Georgia State-19 (1 unit)

SMU @ Maryland (-3)

7:30 PM

This spread is about spot on and there should be tons of scoring between these two teams. Two excellent quarterbacks will be on display. I’d definitely watch this one for fun only. The play: Pass

Nevada @ Iowa (-23)

7:30 PM

If there was ever an opponent Iowa needed to be able to get its offense back on track it is Nevada. The Wolf Pack defense is atrocious at the moment and allowed 55 points to FCS Incarnate Word last week. Nevada is struggling to put it mildly. Meanwhile, Iowa cannot seem to score but the Hawkeye defense is still putting up excellent efforts; even more so when considering how little time they get on the sidelines to rest. My numbers like Iowa here, but I would still like to see if the offense can score four times. Complete faith in the Iowa defense is warranted. It would be shocking if Nevada scores more than once. The play: Iowa-23 (2 units)

Pittsburgh @ Western Michigan (+10)

7:30 PM

Too many questions surround Pitt right now. Were the Panthers overrated coming into the year? What is going on at the quarterback position? Can Coach Narduzzi make it work with the losses the team suffered in the offseason both on the field and sideline? Meanwhile, Western Michigan looks to repeat one of last year’s biggest upsets; this time at home. Tim Lester has done a great job getting the Broncos to over perform during his time at the helm. WM has enough of a run game to use clock and keep it relatively close to the number. The line is fair and backing double digit road favorites with questions is not the best way to make money betting football. Still, Pitt is much more talented than Western Michigan. But the difference is not great enough to back Pitt. The play: Pass

Michigan State @ Washington (-3.5)

7:30 PM

Kalen DeBoer is a better coach than Mel Tucker, but Michigan State is better than Washington so far this season. The Spartans have done what has been asked of them and have no reason to not keep this one close or even win it on the road. Meanwhile, DeBoer is already turning Washington around from the failed Jimmy Lake experiment. Quarterback Michael Penix is playing well for the Huskies and could have them in contention for the PAC 12 title game deep into the year. My ratings have Michigan State favored by only half a point and getting 3.5 is a huge edge. However, the coaching mismatch is worrisome. Plus, Husky Stadium is one of the most difficult road environments in the game. Therefore, only a small wager on the Spartans is in order. The play: Michigan State+3.5 (1 unit)

South Florida @ Florida (-24.5)

7:30 PM

Terrible spread and Florida is between a let down loss to Kentucky and a look ahead game with Tennessee. USF does not have the talent to win but could hang around. Therefore, no bet. The play: Pass

Louisiana @ Rice (+12)

7:30 PM

Louisiana looks to continue scoring lots of points when it travels to Houston to take on Rice in Week 3. I faded Louisiana as double digit favorite against Eastern Michigan and was right to do so - until the fourth quarter that is. Eastern Michigan was easily covering until a 35-0 run by Louisiana that overlapped the third quarter into the final frame. This week, the matchup is somewhat similar, but Rice is worse than Eastern Michigan. The Owls have little talent on the roster but coach Mike Bloomgren is smart and his typical game plan, when executed properly, allows Rice to chew up clock. The talent disparity might lead to a blowout but getting twelve at home is enticing, especially when the ratings have this about a touchdown difference. The play: Rice+12 (1 unit) 

UCF @ Florida Atlantic (+8.5)

7:30 PM

UCF comes off a tough loss when it faces in-state rival Florida Atlantic in Week 3. The Knights struggled to move the ball against Louisville Friday night. Quarterback John Rhys Plumlee had a hard time throwing the ball and UCF had over 100 penalty yards. Meanwhile, FAU easily handled FCS member Southeast Louisiana after losing to Ohio on the road in a Week 1 shootout. The drop in class alone might be enough for UCF to get a nice win here. Gus Malzahn is not living up to expectations yet, but he is vastly better than FAU coach Willie Taggart. My ratings have UCF favored by 18.5. The current spread is not the most preferable but something small on the Knights would not be the worst bet. The play: UCF-8.5 (2 units) 

Louisiana Tech @ Clemson (-34)

8:00 PM

Louisiana Tech traveling to Clemson is not the most intriguing matchup of Week 3 but it offers a nice betting opportunity. Simply put, Clemson is significantly better than Louisiana Tech. The Bulldogs do not have a chance to win this game. Clemson has a fantastic defense. The problem with the Tigers is if DJ Uiagalelei is good enough to win enough games to ensure a CFP appearance. I do not think he is. DJU has been living off of his one great start at Notre Dame when Trevor Lawrence was out with Covid-19 in 2020. SInce then, the Clemson quarterback has not done enough to be considered an elite passer. He looks lost at times and takes too long to make decisions. Cade Klubnik will likely become the starter sooner or later. Expect Klubnik to get some time on the field Saturday if the Tigers keep Tech off the board deep into the game. The ratings have Clemson favored by 36.5 so a small bet is the play. The play: Clemson-34 (1 unit)

UTSA @ Texas (-12.5)

8:00 PM

Texas comes off a big performance, notwithstanding a loss, against Alabama. A close loss to the Tide is as difficult a game to come back from as there is in college football. Here, the Longhorns must recuperate to take on a Texas upstart in UTSA. Coach Jeff Traylor has done a fantastic job getting the Roadrunners to the top of CUSA. However, Texas is a significant step up in class. UTSA plays a style conducive to hanging with better teams, but Texas is loaded with talent and focused. Still, the spread is not the best and Texas is in a massive let down spot. The play: Pass

UTEP @ New Mexico (+3)

8:00 PM

UTEP has disappointed so far this year so laying them as a road favorite would be incredibly difficult. UTEP’s run game is not the worst, but has been unable to set up a passing attack. Meanwhile, New Mexico has a solid defense but has a non-existent offense. The spread is a bit perplexing and something may be going on under the surface with this game. The play: Pass

Miami @ Texas A&M (-5)

9:00 PM

Miami is looking to give Texas A&M back to back home losses that would send the Aggies season spiraling. The Hurricanes would jump up the polls with a win in College Station. Miami possesses the top offense in the ACC and has lots of talent on defense. A&M might struggle moving the ball this week as they did against Appalachian State. The coaching edge is not as large as you’d think and morale is certainly higher with Miami. My ratings have Miami getting 5.5 so there is no great value on either side at the current dead number of 5. The play: Pass (for now)

San Diego State @ Utah (-21)

10:00 PM

The San Diego State Aztecs travel to Salt Lake City to play the Utah Utes in Week 3. The Aztecs had a bad home loss to Arizona followed by a beat down of FCS Idaho State to begin the season. The Aztec offense is going to have trouble against a staunch Utah defense. Utah has the scoring capability to put up points, even on a decent G5 defense. I am not too concerned about Utah looking ahead to their opening PAC 12 game at Arizona State, San Diego State might be a bigger opponent, and the Utes are looking for revenge after losing to SDSU last season. Utah has a very good running game and should be able to move the ball enough to wear out the decent Aztec defensive line. Expect Utah to pull away in the second half. The coaching matchup is also in Utah’s favor; Kyle Whittingham hardly needs to be defended at this point. Utah needs to be perfect the rest of the season to have any shot at a legitimate CFP claim. The play: Utah-21 (3 units)

Fresno State @ USC (-12.5)

10:30 PM

USC looks to keep impressing in Lincoln Riley’s first year when the Trojans host Fresno State. Fresno comes in off a heartbreaking loss at home to PAC 12 opponent Oregon State. It will be tough for the Bulldogs to get up after the brutal last second loss, but then again, the game is against USC. So motivation will not be too hard to find for Fresno. This game is best looked at through a betting view. USC is laying under two full scores at home to a good Mountain West opponent that has every incentive to play 100%. USC might be elite this year. That remains to be determined. But, my ratings have them favored by more than two scores. The play: USC-12.5 (1 unit)

Eastern Michigan @ Arizona State (-20.5)

11:00 PM

Eastern Michigan is shell-shocked after blowing a second half lead on the road at Louisiana last week. It is going to be difficult to get up for another far road game; this time, against a Power 5 opponent. Arizona State is off a bad loss to Oklahoma State, so the Sun Devils motivation will be limited as well. This is a difficult game to handicap and my ratings have it closer than the spread. However, I cannot back Eastern Michigan with confidence after their loss last week. The play: Pass