WEEK 1
WEEK 1 BETS
All Times are Eastern
Ball State @ Tennessee (-35)
Sept 1st 7:00 PM
Tennessee opens 2022 with a visit from MAC program Ball State. Mike Neu has done a good job in his time at Ball State but the talent gap here is as big as they come. The spread is gargantuan in this game so the betting outlook is simple: probably pass unless you feel Tennessee will run up the score. Otherwise, stay away from games like this. Personally, I have the line at Vols -30.5 so I see no value here. Besides, there are many more games with better spreads on which to wager. The play: Pass
Virginia Tech @ Old Dominion (+7.5)
Sept 2nd 7:00 PM
Virginia Tech starts the Brent Pry era with a visit to in-state opponent Old Dominion. Ricky Rahne has done an admirable job at ODU and looks for a massive upset that would really put the Monarchs in the spotlight. ODU pulled off the home upset over VT in 2018, so don’t think it’s impossible. The spread reflects this. The Hokies are a mess that is going to take some time to get cleaned up. Former coach Justin Fuente just never seemed to be the right fit. Results going forward will be impacted by Fuente’s less than optimal job and recruiting for at least the next couple years. VT’s talent is quite low compared to the old days. ODU’s talent isn’t as far off as a casual fan would expect. Meanwhile, ODU participated in a bowl last season even after not playing at all in 2020.The Monarchs move to the Sunbelt Conference from CUSA and are excited for 2022. Rahne is a good coach but ODU still has no position group that is clearly its best. This game is an interesting spot for wagering purposes. Despite being in the same state, ODU is about 4 hours from Blacksburg so my spread uses the full home field advantage. 7.5 seems to be fair and I have the spread at pick em. Virginia Tech is surrounded by questions and this might not be the best game for a brand new staff. The play: ODU+7.5 (3 units)
Western Michigan @ Michigan State (-23)
Sept 2nd 7:00 PM
Western Michigan makes the drive to East Lansing to take on the Spartans to open up play in 2022. The consistent MAC team regularly plays Big Ten opponents so it is not surprising to see this game on the schedule. The Broncos gave Pitt their first loss last year, a result that likely kept the Panthers out of the CFP. Tim Lester has done an acceptable job at Western Michigan ever since PJ Fleck left for Minnesota. Western Michigan’s talent is a bit down by their own standards and I am not expecting them to remain near the top of the MAC. On the other sideline, Michigan State comes off a good season that saw them win a New Year’s Six bowl for the first time in a while. Kenneth Walker’s departure leaves a big void in the Spartan’s backfield, but the replacements are more than acceptable. Michigan State will be powered by its defense and that will make things tough for WM. Michigan State faces another MAC opponent next week so there is almost zero chance they are looking ahead. The spread is fair. This isn’t the type of bet to make when playing to win long term. Either lay Michigan State and fully accept that WM loves spots like this and could keep it close or pass entirely. I will choose the latter. The play: Pass
Temple @ Duke (-7)
Sept 2nd 7:30 PM
There is no way to put this nicely; Duke playing Temple should make for abysmal football. Both sides feature new coaches. Both sides were near the bottom of FBS last year. Both sides have little to no talent at every position. This one could get ugly. Having said all of that, there is still an opportunity for a smart bet in this game. Duke made a pretty good hire in Mike Elko. He spent the last 4 years as defensive coordinator at Notre Dame and Texas A&M and did a fantastic job at Wake Forest prior to that. Elko is a no nonsense type with the smarts that should fit well at Duke. Temple hired first time head coach Stan Drayton. Drayton spent the last few years in various roles on Texas’s staff. Usually passing a season opener featuring two brand new coaches for bad teams would be prudent. However, Temple might be the second worst team in FBS. The Owls have a slightly competent quarterback and basically nothing else. Duke, while not having much talent on the roster either, will understand that this is their only realistic shot at an easy win against FBS competition. My ratings have Duke favored by 15 but I expect my numbers on these two squads might lack accuracy. Still, it’s better to be roughly right than precisely wrong in the world of CFB betting. I usually hesitate at laying this much on a bad team but it’s not the worst bet in the world. The play: Duke-7 (3 units)
Illinois @ Indiana (-3)
Sept 2nd 8:00 PM
Another Big Ten conference matchup is scheduled to start the year when Illinois visits Indiana. Illinois clobbered Wyoming in Week 0 and Indiana seeks to escape the mediocrity it habitually experienced prior to Tom Allen’s tenure. The Illini looked fantastic last week, albeit against a Wyoming program seemingly on the way down. Bret Bielema’s defense only allowed a shockingly low 5 completions in the big win and they will look to keep games messy. The offense moved surprisingly quickly in the no huddle at times; not what one would expect from Illinois. But change can often be a good thing. Illinois can win some ball games it shouldn’t this year if they continue to be stout up front on both sides while keeping opponents on their toes schematically. Meanwhile, Indiana desperately needs a good start to keep morale from sinking. Last year was a mess for the Hoosiers. Injuries and a tough schedule kept Indiana from continuing an upward trend started by Tom Allen. The good coaching might take a hit with Walt Bell now as the offensive coordinator. Bell did all he could in his time at UMass, but made head scratching decisions on the field and comments to the press at times. The outlook on Indiana is mixed and this game might be more than the Hoosiers can handle at the moment. The spread seems fair but Illinois is in good form already and seems ahead of schedule in Bielema’s tenure. The play: Illinois+3 (3 units)
TCU @ Colorado (+14)
Sept 2nd 10:00 PM
TCU begins a new era with a visit to Boulder to take on Colorado. Sonny Dykes is a solid hire for the Horned Frogs and he will serve as a good change of pace after two decades with Gary Patterson. Dykes is much more focused on offense than Patterson ever was. Still, do not expect immediate results. Mistakes should always be expected when coaching a new team. Implementing Dykes' system may take a little time. Colorado finds itself near the bottom of the PAC 12 and might even be worse than Arizona this season. Karl Dorrel has his hands full. Not much talent is on the roster and the staff might want to think extra creatively this year if they want to win more than a couple of games. Betting wise, there are more attractive spreads on the Week 1 schedule. If you are confident that Dykes will light up the scoreboard right away, like he did at SMU, fire away. However, laying double digits on the road with a non elite team is not really an optimal wager. The play: Pass
Buffalo @ Maryland (-24.5)
Sept 3rd Noon
Big spreads can be especially difficult to handicap and Maryland hosting Buffalo is no exception. Buffalo had a down year after losing the terrific Lance Leipold to Kansas. Maurice Linguist performed okay for the Bulls last year but is clearly a massive step down from Leipold. Typically, when deciding to bet a large underdog, a star player or two is a plus, and an excellent coach is practically required. Buffalo has neither. Maryland beats teams it should and gets clobbered by those who it has no business playing during Mike Locksley’s time in College Park. The Big Ten East is brutal and has given the Terps the opportunity to really play up, thus allowing Maryland to really take it to lesser competition. Taulia Tagovailoa is far and away the best passer Maryland has had in a long time and the receiver corps matches him. This offense will be a blast to watch. The terps are lacking on defense. When betting a large favorite from a power conference, look for either an elite team or an opponent who is bottom of the barrel in its own conference. Otherwise, place your cash elsewhere. My ratings have Maryland favored by slightly less than the actual spread, but my confidence in Buffalo is lacking. The play: Grudgingly Pass
Colorado State @ Michigan (-30.5)
Sept 3rd Noon
The spread has shot up from 27.5 to 30.5 for Michigan vs Colorado State. 28 is a key number so the move is significant. The outcome in Ann Arbor will be in little doubt on Saturday when Michigan hosts the Rams. But, the spread could very much be in play until the final whistle. Michigan is coming off a CFP appearance that possibly saved Jim Harbaugh’s job. Michigan beat Ohio State for the first time since Harbaugh took over and the outcome may have been even more important than the playoff bid. The Wolverines are a well coached talented bunch with experience who can easily wipe lesser opponents off the field. This is the type of big favorite a bettor can be confident backing. Meanwhile, Colorado State is in over its head here. New coach Jay Norvell will need time to implement his systemes as the Rams make a drastic change in coaching philosophy. Norvell did better than expected at Nevada and recruited pretty well in Reno. CSU has invested in football and seems to want to get to the top of the Group of 5. Patience will be needed and this week probably will be ugly for the boys from Fort Collins. Michigan will romp in this one but by how much? The spread was attractive at -27.5 and early bettors pounced. My ratings have Michigan by 35 so motivation will be the sole factor determining the outcome of the spread. 30.5 is tough but is worth a small wager. The play: Michigan -30.5 (3 units)
NC State @ ECU (+11.5)
Sept 3rd Noon
NC State makes the short trip across the state to take on the ECU Pirates to begin 2022. The Wolf Pack have an opportunity at a great season. Dave Doeren has been really good in nine years in Raleigh. The Pack typically rely on competent quarterback play, a dependable ground game, and a tough defensive line. Strengths at all three defensive levels will make scoring on NC State quite difficult this year. Betting teams with those features usually is a great pick. Here, NC State finds itself as a road favorite. ECU has been a decent program over the years, but has had occasional seasons well below average. This season, the Pirates figure to be right in the middle of the AAC. Holton Ahlers is a good quarterback that can run at times but will need to play nearly perfect football to give the Pirates any shot of covering this week. Mike Houston is a smart coach but never seems to have the talent to put him in the top of the conference. Laying this many points on the road is usually imprudent, however NC State has the goods to be a top end team with a pretty fair chance at winning the ACC. I’d back them here. The play: NC State-11.5 (3 units)
North Carolina @ Appalachian State (+1.5)
Sept 3rd Noon
North Carolina travels to Boone to take on a somewhat familiar opponent in Appalachian State. The perennial Sunbelt contender has fared as well as possible since coming up to FBS in 2014. The Mountaineers regularly make bowls and often win them. Appalachian State has a solid returning passer in Chase Brice and is quite solid everywhere else except for maybe its defensive line. Shawn Clark is a good coach and will not be phased by the Tar Heels power 5 status. Meanwhile, North Carolina lost an all-time quarterback in Sam Howell, Mack Brown is a year older, and the attitude surrounding the program is not the best after a terribly disappointing 2021 season. In the past, this spread would’ve probably been around a full score in favor of the visitors. However, the times have made lines much more accurate and less susceptible to public misjudgment. Pick is a fair line. My ratings have the spread favoring Appalachian State by a field goal when applying full home field advantage. This should be a good game and possibly the most thrilling of Week 1. I have no problem making a full bet on a solid G5 team at home taking on an instate big brother type opponent who has new faces all over the roster. However, the line movement and Appalachian State's average defensive line slightly concern me. The play: App State 1.5 (3 units)
Rutgers at Boston College (-7)
Sept 3rd Noon
Boston College welcomes Rutgers to Chestnut Hill to begin the 2022 season. This matchup is fairly straightforward: Boston College will depend on quarterback Phil Jurkovec to beat the Scarlet Knights’ less than impressive defense. Rutgers, for their part, will try their best to spring the upset through disciplined controlled football. I would expect no other strategy from a Greg Schiano led team. The thing is, Rutgers is not talented enough to win football games against power programs using this approach. Boston College is very well coached by Jeff Hafley. He has done a good job in his few years so far. The spread appears fair at first glance, until you realize that Jurkovec is a top fifteen quarterback nationally based on potential alone. I expect Jurkovec to really impress this year as he hopefully avoids injury problems at last. The former Notre Dame recruit should be the real deal. BC does not have much else on the roster, but possess acceptable talent that Jurkovec can carry with his arm and Hafley can carry with his coaching. Yours truly has the Eagles favored by over two full scores when home field advantage is applied. This spread might not be close to the final score. I expect Boston College to roll against the worst team from the Big Ten. The play: Boston College-7 (7 units)
Bowling Green @ UCLA (-23)
Sept 3rd 2:30 PM
Not much to say about UCLA hosting MAC opponent Bowling Green. The spread is big; my ratings suggest an even bigger spread; UCLA has a talented, dynamic, explosive, experienced quarterback; and Bowling Green is not good. Sure the Bruins lost a lot on both sides of the ball, but their most important pieces remain. Expect UCLA to win going away to the point that this is a large spread worthy of a small bet. Still, laying 21 or fewer would be preferable. The play: UCLA-23 (3 units)
Arizona @ San Diego State (-6)
Sept 3rd 3:30 PM
Arizona travels to San Diego State’s brand new stadium for a PAC 12 vs Mountain West matchup. Teams from the Mountain West seem to regularly upset the lower end of the PAC 12 in both non-conference regular season games and in bowls. The talent gap between these two conferences has gotten smaller and smaller in recent years so it is no surprise to see the Aztecs laying points here. Jedd Fisch somehow secured a highly rated recruiting class for Arizona despite the program's paucity of wins in recent seasons. Arizona should finish higher than last in their conference this year, but I anticipate a full blown turnaround to be much farther down the road. On the other side, San Diego State adds Braxton Burmeister transferring from Virginia Tech at quarterback - a sizable improvement at the position. Brady Hoke has done a great job in his time with the Aztecs. Expect the typical stout defense from SDSU. Low scoring and messy games are this teams forte. The spread is a tough one. Obviously a home G5 dog would be preferable against a low level Power 5 team. However, San Diego State is the better program at this time by far. Laying the six points would not be the worst wager ever, but one should proceed with caution. Arizona should have better talent than it has had in a while, but they might not be quite ready to win against this caliber of team just yet. The play: San Diego State-6 (3 units)
Houston @ UTSA (+4)
Sept 3rd 3:30 PM
In-state rivalries provide some of the most memorable games each year. Houston visits the Alamo Dome to take on UTSA for only the third time ever. This time, UTSA will be a formidable opponent for the visitors from the AAC. Both teams come off excellent years which saw double digit wins. Houston lost the AAC championship to CFP participant Cincinnati, while UTSA won CUSA in a memorable championship game against Western Kentucky. Houston won its bowl against SEC member Auburn and UTSA lost its bowl to San Diego State. Many pundits are projecting Houston to have a great year and it’s hard to argue against those sentiments. Houston returns an experienced quarterback and Dana Holgorsen is a respectable play caller and head coach. The rest of the offense is lacking, but the defense should be stout up front. Meanwhile, the Roadrunners look to continue winning games in the Alamo Dome. Jeff Traylor has been fantastic in San Antonio while also building excitement with the fan base. Expect the crowd to be boisterous. This could be one of the most exciting games to watch in Week 1. UTSA does lose its top running back but returns its experienced passer and has decent backs ready to take the ball behind a good offensive line. The road runners have a brutal non-conference schedule featuring trips to West Point and Austin, so this game could be their best chance at a big signature win. While I do think Houston has better talent overall, I love Traylor’s schemes and game strategies. The home field advantage will play a big role. My ratings have this game a pick so getting four with a defending conference champion at home could be a gift. This game will show if UTSA is the real deal. The play: UTSA+4 (3 units)
Oregon v. Georgia (-17)
Sept 3rd 3:30 PM (Atlanta, GA)
SMU @ North Texas (+11)
Sept 3rd 7:30 PM
SMU opens the Rhett Lashlee era visiting Denton to take on North Texas. The Mean Green won their opener in Week 0 against fellow CUSA team UTEP. North Texas played well but were outgained by the Miners. A couple of goal line stands and a UTEP fumble allowed North Texas to win by a margin larger than the true closeness of the game. As expected, North Texas had a balanced attack led by longtime quarterback Austin Aune. Seth Litrell’s defense played well against UTEP and shut out the Miners in three of the quarters. North Texas takes a step up in class when they host SMU. The Mustangs have perhaps the best passer in the AAC and the offense won’t change that much under Miami’s former offensive coordinator. Defense in general is the Achilles' heel for SMU, and the Mustangs might have trouble stopping the persistent North Texas attack at times. North Texas does not draw well and the crowd will have plenty of SMU supporters present. Even so, the spread seems a bit on the high side. Sure, SMU has the talent edge and is not traveling all that far. However, starting a new coaching era on the road at a better than poor opponent is not the easiest game. North Texas will have some trouble stopping the SMU passing game but has the offense to make a last minute score to cover through the back door. It would not be all that surprising if North Texas were to pull off the upset on the field. The play: UNT+11 (3 units)
Utah State @ Alabama (-42)
Sept 3rd 7:30 PM
Utah State had a hard time with UConn for the first 20 minutes last week (i.e. this will NOT be close). Alabama comes into 2022 as they do almost every year now; as the top rated team. The spread is spot on at 42 and there is no value to be had wagering on such a number. The play: Pass
Memphis @ Mississippi State (-16)
Sept 3rd 7:30 PM
Mississippi State hosts Memphis in a rematch of a controversial game from last season. Memphis defeated Mississippi State at home after a few questionable rulings from the officials. Mississippi State looks to have a wide enough lead to negate any poor calls this time around. Mike Leach has done a fair job installing the Air Raid offense in the SEC. Will Rogers is an excellent passer and is expected to put the ball in the air as often as anybody in FBS this season. Memphis will have a difficult time containing the Bulldogs passing attack. The Tigers have an average offense and will likely get mauled by Mississippi State on the line. Memphis will score but likely not enough to contend on the field. Beating the spread might be a more manageable goal. However, that may even be asking too much. My ratings have Mississippi State favored by 28. The 16 point spread is not the most desirable but still leaves a comfortable margin of safety if the ratings are accurate. Mississippi State is home, has a good coach who likes to win by a ton, and a persistent offense will score at will. The play: Mississippi State-16 (7 units)
Louisville @ Syracuse (+4.5)
Sept 3rd 8:00 PM
Syracuse hosts Louisville to start the year with an ACC game. Syracuse will rely heavily on the running of Sean Tucker. The running back has been tremendous for the Orange and is on many award watch lists. Dino Babers has largely disappointed in his time at Syracuse and needs a solid season to keep the confidence of the administration. Louisville has a good secondary and is capable of keying its linebackers towards the run game. The Orange will struggle passing and might find themselves with a poor third down conversion rate. Meanwhile, Malik Cunningham is an electric quarterback who rivals Tucker as the best player on the field. The Syracuse defense will have its hands full trying to stop Cunningham. The spread is relatively fair when considering how tough Syracuse can be in the dome. Plus this is the first game of the year so enthusiasm will be high. My ratings have Louisville favored slightly more than the spread but laying road favorites at night is not a great bet. This game could be a wild journey with a crazy ending. The play: Pass, but definitely a game to watch
ULM @ Texas (-37)
Sept 3rd 8:00 PM
Yet another massive spread appears on the Week 1 schedule. Naturally, this is not unexpected due to the number of non-conference games between true power programs and the lower teams of the group of five. Texas again faces bigger than life expectations despite the disappointing 2021 that saw the Longhorns suffer their largest losing streak since before World War II, a loss to Kansas in Austin, and not making a bowl. Quinn Ewers takes over at quarterback and should be quite talented. Texas has talent all over but turning that into wins is the biggest task Steve Sarkisian has. The Warhawks of Louisiana - Monroe have little to no chance in Austin on Saturday. ULM is one of the worst funded programs in FBS and coach Terry Bowden can only do so much. ULM will take the pay day and move on from this game. It is not very bettable, but ULM has gotten some action earlier in the week betting this line down a few points. My ratings have ULM as 34.5 point dog but that fails to provide the margin of safety I demand when betting a sizeable spread. The play: Pass
Kent State @ Washington (-22.5)
Sept 3rd 10:30 PM
Sean Lewis’s Flash Fast offense visits Seattle when it takes on The Washington Huskies under new coach Kalen DeBoer. DeBoer comes over from a successful stint at Fresno State. Washington nearly lured highly rated quarterback Jake Haener from Fresno through the portal, but Haener stayed when Fresno re-hired Jeff Tedford after he took several years off for medical reasons. Meanwhile, Washington ended the short and tumultuous Jimmy Lake era that can’t be described as anything but a failure. Washington looks to get back to its winning ways in the PAC 12 and should start the season off with a victory against the overmatched MAC opponent. Lewis’s offense is fun to watch and should be able to move the ball at times but it remains to be seen if Kent State has the overall talent to score consistently against a P5 defense. Kent State loses its solid quarterback from last season, Dustin Crum, who is now in the NFL. Kent State will face some hiccups until the new passer settles in. 21.5 seems like a lot for a new coach to cover, but even an average PAC 12 team should hold a solid MAC team under 30. My ratings have this one closer but I’d rather back underdogs that I think can win outright. I do not feel that is the case here. The play: Pass
Boise State @ Oregon State (-3)
Sept 3rd 10:30 PM
Sept 1st 7:00 PM
Tennessee opens 2022 with a visit from MAC program Ball State. Mike Neu has done a good job in his time at Ball State but the talent gap here is as big as they come. The spread is gargantuan in this game so the betting outlook is simple: probably pass unless you feel Tennessee will run up the score. Otherwise, stay away from games like this. Personally, I have the line at Vols -30.5 so I see no value here. Besides, there are many more games with better spreads on which to wager. The play: Pass
West Virginia @ Pitt (-7.5)
Sept 1st 7:00 PM
West Virginia visits Pitt for the first renewal of the Backyard Brawl since the old Big East days. The crowd should be very into this one. Neal Brown looks for a signature win since becoming the Mountaineer coach several years ago. Meanwhile, Pitt looks to rebound from losing its best quarterback since Dan Marino and losing NFL prospect wide receiver Jordan Addison to USC through the portal. Coincidentally, Pitt’s new passer transfers from USC and looks to make an immediate impact. Georgia transfer JT Daniels takes the snaps for West Virginia now, so this game features new quarterbacks with loads of experience at other schools. West Virginia has been waiting for a big win ever since Brown took over as coach but it has eluded the program so far. Expect West Virginia to be balanced on offense. Pitt features one of the nation’s top defensive lines as is expected under long-time coach Pat Narduzzi. This will be the best defense WVU faces during 2022. Laying 7.5 is a tough bet, however, Pitt rates more than two scores better than West Virginia, even when taking the loss of Pickett and Addison into account. Playing on a weeknight helps Pitt quite a bit. The play: Pitt-7.5 (7 units)
Central Michigan @ OK State (-21.5)
Sept 1st 7:00 PM
Lew Nichols III and the Chippewas travel to Stillwater for a matchup that has provided some entertaining games in recent years. Central Michigan has performed admirably since Jim McElwain became head coach and they possess last year's national rushing leader. McElwain is a tremendous coach who I feel is underrated. He will have CMU ready to go in a power 5 environment. However, Mike Gundy is one of the best coaches in FBS and has seen what a top end MAC team can do to an unmotivated power program. OK State has a very experienced quarterback in Spencer Sanders but little else on offense. The defensive line is top notch but the back 7 is average at best. The loss of defensive coordinator Jim Knowles to Ohio State is a bigger deal than most other coordinator swaps. Even still, expect the pokes to bottle up the uber talented Nichols enough to keep the CMU offense in check. Sanders should be able to lead enough drives to win the game but beating the three plus score number might be a question until late in the game. Expect McElwain to slow the game down and CMU could have a shot at the cover. The play: Pass or CMU+21.5 (3 units)
Penn State @ Purdue (+3.5)
Sept 1st 8:00 PM
Purdue hosts Penn State in a Big Ten contest to open the season. The spread is a not too unexpected 3.5 favoring the visitor. Spreads like these pop up with regularity in the Big Ten, and quite often in games involving blue bloods visiting West Lafayette. Purdue has consistently played the role of the underdog considerably well the last few years, and the Boilermakers look for another upset right out of the gate this season. The coaching matchup in this game is top notch. James Franklin has done a fantastic job at Penn State and remained loyal by taking an extension. On the other sideline, Jeff Brohm has used a creative offense to make the Boilermakers into one of the most fun teams to watch in FBS. Handicapping-wise, this game features an experienced quarterback for the visitor needing just enough time from Penn State’s poor o-line to get the ball to his talented receivers. If Sean Clifford gets that time, Penn State should score with ease. Purdue seems to never have the greatest defense, but does not seem to care. Typically, Brohm thrives in shootouts. Purdue should be able to move the ball as they have one of the top passers in the Big Ten. Aidan O’Connell was fantastic last year and occasionally shared snaps. Purdue will rely on smart decision making from O’Connell if there is any chance to score on the top ten defense that Penn State will put on the field. Compelling arguments can be made for both sides in this matchup. I have Penn State favored by 5.5 but laying 3.5 in a conference road game on a weeknight is an easy trap to avoid in the long run. The play: Purdue+3.5 if anything (3 units).
Louisiana Tech @ Mizzou (-20)
Sept 1st 8:00 PM
Not much to say about this game. Too many uncertainties abound with La Tech coming off a disappointing year that led to a coaching change. Mizzou obviously has a massive talent edge on the CUSA opponent and Drinkwitz is a better coach than he gets credit for, but The spread is about right and I still do not trust the Missouri defense to lay over two scores. The play: Hard Pass
New Mexico State @ Minnesota (-36)
Sept 1st 9:00 PM
New Mexico State is the worst team in FBS this year. The line is spot on so look elsewhere for betting. The play: Hard Pass
Sept 1st 7:00 PM
West Virginia visits Pitt for the first renewal of the Backyard Brawl since the old Big East days. The crowd should be very into this one. Neal Brown looks for a signature win since becoming the Mountaineer coach several years ago. Meanwhile, Pitt looks to rebound from losing its best quarterback since Dan Marino and losing NFL prospect wide receiver Jordan Addison to USC through the portal. Coincidentally, Pitt’s new passer transfers from USC and looks to make an immediate impact. Georgia transfer JT Daniels takes the snaps for West Virginia now, so this game features new quarterbacks with loads of experience at other schools. West Virginia has been waiting for a big win ever since Brown took over as coach but it has eluded the program so far. Expect West Virginia to be balanced on offense. Pitt features one of the nation’s top defensive lines as is expected under long-time coach Pat Narduzzi. This will be the best defense WVU faces during 2022. Laying 7.5 is a tough bet, however, Pitt rates more than two scores better than West Virginia, even when taking the loss of Pickett and Addison into account. Playing on a weeknight helps Pitt quite a bit. The play: Pitt-7.5 (7 units)
Central Michigan @ OK State (-21.5)
Sept 1st 7:00 PM
Lew Nichols III and the Chippewas travel to Stillwater for a matchup that has provided some entertaining games in recent years. Central Michigan has performed admirably since Jim McElwain became head coach and they possess last year's national rushing leader. McElwain is a tremendous coach who I feel is underrated. He will have CMU ready to go in a power 5 environment. However, Mike Gundy is one of the best coaches in FBS and has seen what a top end MAC team can do to an unmotivated power program. OK State has a very experienced quarterback in Spencer Sanders but little else on offense. The defensive line is top notch but the back 7 is average at best. The loss of defensive coordinator Jim Knowles to Ohio State is a bigger deal than most other coordinator swaps. Even still, expect the pokes to bottle up the uber talented Nichols enough to keep the CMU offense in check. Sanders should be able to lead enough drives to win the game but beating the three plus score number might be a question until late in the game. Expect McElwain to slow the game down and CMU could have a shot at the cover. The play: Pass or CMU+21.5 (3 units)
Penn State @ Purdue (+3.5)
Sept 1st 8:00 PM
Purdue hosts Penn State in a Big Ten contest to open the season. The spread is a not too unexpected 3.5 favoring the visitor. Spreads like these pop up with regularity in the Big Ten, and quite often in games involving blue bloods visiting West Lafayette. Purdue has consistently played the role of the underdog considerably well the last few years, and the Boilermakers look for another upset right out of the gate this season. The coaching matchup in this game is top notch. James Franklin has done a fantastic job at Penn State and remained loyal by taking an extension. On the other sideline, Jeff Brohm has used a creative offense to make the Boilermakers into one of the most fun teams to watch in FBS. Handicapping-wise, this game features an experienced quarterback for the visitor needing just enough time from Penn State’s poor o-line to get the ball to his talented receivers. If Sean Clifford gets that time, Penn State should score with ease. Purdue seems to never have the greatest defense, but does not seem to care. Typically, Brohm thrives in shootouts. Purdue should be able to move the ball as they have one of the top passers in the Big Ten. Aidan O’Connell was fantastic last year and occasionally shared snaps. Purdue will rely on smart decision making from O’Connell if there is any chance to score on the top ten defense that Penn State will put on the field. Compelling arguments can be made for both sides in this matchup. I have Penn State favored by 5.5 but laying 3.5 in a conference road game on a weeknight is an easy trap to avoid in the long run. The play: Purdue+3.5 if anything (3 units).
Louisiana Tech @ Mizzou (-20)
Sept 1st 8:00 PM
Not much to say about this game. Too many uncertainties abound with La Tech coming off a disappointing year that led to a coaching change. Mizzou obviously has a massive talent edge on the CUSA opponent and Drinkwitz is a better coach than he gets credit for, but The spread is about right and I still do not trust the Missouri defense to lay over two scores. The play: Hard Pass
New Mexico State @ Minnesota (-36)
Sept 1st 9:00 PM
New Mexico State is the worst team in FBS this year. The line is spot on so look elsewhere for betting. The play: Hard Pass
Virginia Tech @ Old Dominion (+7.5)
Sept 2nd 7:00 PM
Virginia Tech starts the Brent Pry era with a visit to in-state opponent Old Dominion. Ricky Rahne has done an admirable job at ODU and looks for a massive upset that would really put the Monarchs in the spotlight. ODU pulled off the home upset over VT in 2018, so don’t think it’s impossible. The spread reflects this. The Hokies are a mess that is going to take some time to get cleaned up. Former coach Justin Fuente just never seemed to be the right fit. Results going forward will be impacted by Fuente’s less than optimal job and recruiting for at least the next couple years. VT’s talent is quite low compared to the old days. ODU’s talent isn’t as far off as a casual fan would expect. Meanwhile, ODU participated in a bowl last season even after not playing at all in 2020.The Monarchs move to the Sunbelt Conference from CUSA and are excited for 2022. Rahne is a good coach but ODU still has no position group that is clearly its best. This game is an interesting spot for wagering purposes. Despite being in the same state, ODU is about 4 hours from Blacksburg so my spread uses the full home field advantage. 7.5 seems to be fair and I have the spread at pick em. Virginia Tech is surrounded by questions and this might not be the best game for a brand new staff. The play: ODU+7.5 (3 units)
Western Michigan @ Michigan State (-23)
Sept 2nd 7:00 PM
Western Michigan makes the drive to East Lansing to take on the Spartans to open up play in 2022. The consistent MAC team regularly plays Big Ten opponents so it is not surprising to see this game on the schedule. The Broncos gave Pitt their first loss last year, a result that likely kept the Panthers out of the CFP. Tim Lester has done an acceptable job at Western Michigan ever since PJ Fleck left for Minnesota. Western Michigan’s talent is a bit down by their own standards and I am not expecting them to remain near the top of the MAC. On the other sideline, Michigan State comes off a good season that saw them win a New Year’s Six bowl for the first time in a while. Kenneth Walker’s departure leaves a big void in the Spartan’s backfield, but the replacements are more than acceptable. Michigan State will be powered by its defense and that will make things tough for WM. Michigan State faces another MAC opponent next week so there is almost zero chance they are looking ahead. The spread is fair. This isn’t the type of bet to make when playing to win long term. Either lay Michigan State and fully accept that WM loves spots like this and could keep it close or pass entirely. I will choose the latter. The play: Pass
Temple @ Duke (-7)
Sept 2nd 7:30 PM
There is no way to put this nicely; Duke playing Temple should make for abysmal football. Both sides feature new coaches. Both sides were near the bottom of FBS last year. Both sides have little to no talent at every position. This one could get ugly. Having said all of that, there is still an opportunity for a smart bet in this game. Duke made a pretty good hire in Mike Elko. He spent the last 4 years as defensive coordinator at Notre Dame and Texas A&M and did a fantastic job at Wake Forest prior to that. Elko is a no nonsense type with the smarts that should fit well at Duke. Temple hired first time head coach Stan Drayton. Drayton spent the last few years in various roles on Texas’s staff. Usually passing a season opener featuring two brand new coaches for bad teams would be prudent. However, Temple might be the second worst team in FBS. The Owls have a slightly competent quarterback and basically nothing else. Duke, while not having much talent on the roster either, will understand that this is their only realistic shot at an easy win against FBS competition. My ratings have Duke favored by 15 but I expect my numbers on these two squads might lack accuracy. Still, it’s better to be roughly right than precisely wrong in the world of CFB betting. I usually hesitate at laying this much on a bad team but it’s not the worst bet in the world. The play: Duke-7 (3 units)
Illinois @ Indiana (-3)
Sept 2nd 8:00 PM
Another Big Ten conference matchup is scheduled to start the year when Illinois visits Indiana. Illinois clobbered Wyoming in Week 0 and Indiana seeks to escape the mediocrity it habitually experienced prior to Tom Allen’s tenure. The Illini looked fantastic last week, albeit against a Wyoming program seemingly on the way down. Bret Bielema’s defense only allowed a shockingly low 5 completions in the big win and they will look to keep games messy. The offense moved surprisingly quickly in the no huddle at times; not what one would expect from Illinois. But change can often be a good thing. Illinois can win some ball games it shouldn’t this year if they continue to be stout up front on both sides while keeping opponents on their toes schematically. Meanwhile, Indiana desperately needs a good start to keep morale from sinking. Last year was a mess for the Hoosiers. Injuries and a tough schedule kept Indiana from continuing an upward trend started by Tom Allen. The good coaching might take a hit with Walt Bell now as the offensive coordinator. Bell did all he could in his time at UMass, but made head scratching decisions on the field and comments to the press at times. The outlook on Indiana is mixed and this game might be more than the Hoosiers can handle at the moment. The spread seems fair but Illinois is in good form already and seems ahead of schedule in Bielema’s tenure. The play: Illinois+3 (3 units)
TCU @ Colorado (+14)
Sept 2nd 10:00 PM
TCU begins a new era with a visit to Boulder to take on Colorado. Sonny Dykes is a solid hire for the Horned Frogs and he will serve as a good change of pace after two decades with Gary Patterson. Dykes is much more focused on offense than Patterson ever was. Still, do not expect immediate results. Mistakes should always be expected when coaching a new team. Implementing Dykes' system may take a little time. Colorado finds itself near the bottom of the PAC 12 and might even be worse than Arizona this season. Karl Dorrel has his hands full. Not much talent is on the roster and the staff might want to think extra creatively this year if they want to win more than a couple of games. Betting wise, there are more attractive spreads on the Week 1 schedule. If you are confident that Dykes will light up the scoreboard right away, like he did at SMU, fire away. However, laying double digits on the road with a non elite team is not really an optimal wager. The play: Pass
Buffalo @ Maryland (-24.5)
Sept 3rd Noon
Big spreads can be especially difficult to handicap and Maryland hosting Buffalo is no exception. Buffalo had a down year after losing the terrific Lance Leipold to Kansas. Maurice Linguist performed okay for the Bulls last year but is clearly a massive step down from Leipold. Typically, when deciding to bet a large underdog, a star player or two is a plus, and an excellent coach is practically required. Buffalo has neither. Maryland beats teams it should and gets clobbered by those who it has no business playing during Mike Locksley’s time in College Park. The Big Ten East is brutal and has given the Terps the opportunity to really play up, thus allowing Maryland to really take it to lesser competition. Taulia Tagovailoa is far and away the best passer Maryland has had in a long time and the receiver corps matches him. This offense will be a blast to watch. The terps are lacking on defense. When betting a large favorite from a power conference, look for either an elite team or an opponent who is bottom of the barrel in its own conference. Otherwise, place your cash elsewhere. My ratings have Maryland favored by slightly less than the actual spread, but my confidence in Buffalo is lacking. The play: Grudgingly Pass
Colorado State @ Michigan (-30.5)
Sept 3rd Noon
The spread has shot up from 27.5 to 30.5 for Michigan vs Colorado State. 28 is a key number so the move is significant. The outcome in Ann Arbor will be in little doubt on Saturday when Michigan hosts the Rams. But, the spread could very much be in play until the final whistle. Michigan is coming off a CFP appearance that possibly saved Jim Harbaugh’s job. Michigan beat Ohio State for the first time since Harbaugh took over and the outcome may have been even more important than the playoff bid. The Wolverines are a well coached talented bunch with experience who can easily wipe lesser opponents off the field. This is the type of big favorite a bettor can be confident backing. Meanwhile, Colorado State is in over its head here. New coach Jay Norvell will need time to implement his systemes as the Rams make a drastic change in coaching philosophy. Norvell did better than expected at Nevada and recruited pretty well in Reno. CSU has invested in football and seems to want to get to the top of the Group of 5. Patience will be needed and this week probably will be ugly for the boys from Fort Collins. Michigan will romp in this one but by how much? The spread was attractive at -27.5 and early bettors pounced. My ratings have Michigan by 35 so motivation will be the sole factor determining the outcome of the spread. 30.5 is tough but is worth a small wager. The play: Michigan -30.5 (3 units)
NC State @ ECU (+11.5)
Sept 3rd Noon
NC State makes the short trip across the state to take on the ECU Pirates to begin 2022. The Wolf Pack have an opportunity at a great season. Dave Doeren has been really good in nine years in Raleigh. The Pack typically rely on competent quarterback play, a dependable ground game, and a tough defensive line. Strengths at all three defensive levels will make scoring on NC State quite difficult this year. Betting teams with those features usually is a great pick. Here, NC State finds itself as a road favorite. ECU has been a decent program over the years, but has had occasional seasons well below average. This season, the Pirates figure to be right in the middle of the AAC. Holton Ahlers is a good quarterback that can run at times but will need to play nearly perfect football to give the Pirates any shot of covering this week. Mike Houston is a smart coach but never seems to have the talent to put him in the top of the conference. Laying this many points on the road is usually imprudent, however NC State has the goods to be a top end team with a pretty fair chance at winning the ACC. I’d back them here. The play: NC State-11.5 (3 units)
North Carolina @ Appalachian State (+1.5)
Sept 3rd Noon
North Carolina travels to Boone to take on a somewhat familiar opponent in Appalachian State. The perennial Sunbelt contender has fared as well as possible since coming up to FBS in 2014. The Mountaineers regularly make bowls and often win them. Appalachian State has a solid returning passer in Chase Brice and is quite solid everywhere else except for maybe its defensive line. Shawn Clark is a good coach and will not be phased by the Tar Heels power 5 status. Meanwhile, North Carolina lost an all-time quarterback in Sam Howell, Mack Brown is a year older, and the attitude surrounding the program is not the best after a terribly disappointing 2021 season. In the past, this spread would’ve probably been around a full score in favor of the visitors. However, the times have made lines much more accurate and less susceptible to public misjudgment. Pick is a fair line. My ratings have the spread favoring Appalachian State by a field goal when applying full home field advantage. This should be a good game and possibly the most thrilling of Week 1. I have no problem making a full bet on a solid G5 team at home taking on an instate big brother type opponent who has new faces all over the roster. However, the line movement and Appalachian State's average defensive line slightly concern me. The play: App State 1.5 (3 units)
Rutgers at Boston College (-7)
Sept 3rd Noon
Boston College welcomes Rutgers to Chestnut Hill to begin the 2022 season. This matchup is fairly straightforward: Boston College will depend on quarterback Phil Jurkovec to beat the Scarlet Knights’ less than impressive defense. Rutgers, for their part, will try their best to spring the upset through disciplined controlled football. I would expect no other strategy from a Greg Schiano led team. The thing is, Rutgers is not talented enough to win football games against power programs using this approach. Boston College is very well coached by Jeff Hafley. He has done a good job in his few years so far. The spread appears fair at first glance, until you realize that Jurkovec is a top fifteen quarterback nationally based on potential alone. I expect Jurkovec to really impress this year as he hopefully avoids injury problems at last. The former Notre Dame recruit should be the real deal. BC does not have much else on the roster, but possess acceptable talent that Jurkovec can carry with his arm and Hafley can carry with his coaching. Yours truly has the Eagles favored by over two full scores when home field advantage is applied. This spread might not be close to the final score. I expect Boston College to roll against the worst team from the Big Ten. The play: Boston College-7 (7 units)
Bowling Green @ UCLA (-23)
Sept 3rd 2:30 PM
Not much to say about UCLA hosting MAC opponent Bowling Green. The spread is big; my ratings suggest an even bigger spread; UCLA has a talented, dynamic, explosive, experienced quarterback; and Bowling Green is not good. Sure the Bruins lost a lot on both sides of the ball, but their most important pieces remain. Expect UCLA to win going away to the point that this is a large spread worthy of a small bet. Still, laying 21 or fewer would be preferable. The play: UCLA-23 (3 units)
Arizona @ San Diego State (-6)
Sept 3rd 3:30 PM
Arizona travels to San Diego State’s brand new stadium for a PAC 12 vs Mountain West matchup. Teams from the Mountain West seem to regularly upset the lower end of the PAC 12 in both non-conference regular season games and in bowls. The talent gap between these two conferences has gotten smaller and smaller in recent years so it is no surprise to see the Aztecs laying points here. Jedd Fisch somehow secured a highly rated recruiting class for Arizona despite the program's paucity of wins in recent seasons. Arizona should finish higher than last in their conference this year, but I anticipate a full blown turnaround to be much farther down the road. On the other side, San Diego State adds Braxton Burmeister transferring from Virginia Tech at quarterback - a sizable improvement at the position. Brady Hoke has done a great job in his time with the Aztecs. Expect the typical stout defense from SDSU. Low scoring and messy games are this teams forte. The spread is a tough one. Obviously a home G5 dog would be preferable against a low level Power 5 team. However, San Diego State is the better program at this time by far. Laying the six points would not be the worst wager ever, but one should proceed with caution. Arizona should have better talent than it has had in a while, but they might not be quite ready to win against this caliber of team just yet. The play: San Diego State-6 (3 units)
Houston @ UTSA (+4)
Sept 3rd 3:30 PM
In-state rivalries provide some of the most memorable games each year. Houston visits the Alamo Dome to take on UTSA for only the third time ever. This time, UTSA will be a formidable opponent for the visitors from the AAC. Both teams come off excellent years which saw double digit wins. Houston lost the AAC championship to CFP participant Cincinnati, while UTSA won CUSA in a memorable championship game against Western Kentucky. Houston won its bowl against SEC member Auburn and UTSA lost its bowl to San Diego State. Many pundits are projecting Houston to have a great year and it’s hard to argue against those sentiments. Houston returns an experienced quarterback and Dana Holgorsen is a respectable play caller and head coach. The rest of the offense is lacking, but the defense should be stout up front. Meanwhile, the Roadrunners look to continue winning games in the Alamo Dome. Jeff Traylor has been fantastic in San Antonio while also building excitement with the fan base. Expect the crowd to be boisterous. This could be one of the most exciting games to watch in Week 1. UTSA does lose its top running back but returns its experienced passer and has decent backs ready to take the ball behind a good offensive line. The road runners have a brutal non-conference schedule featuring trips to West Point and Austin, so this game could be their best chance at a big signature win. While I do think Houston has better talent overall, I love Traylor’s schemes and game strategies. The home field advantage will play a big role. My ratings have this game a pick so getting four with a defending conference champion at home could be a gift. This game will show if UTSA is the real deal. The play: UTSA+4 (3 units)
Oregon v. Georgia (-17)
Sept 3rd 3:30 PM (Atlanta, GA)
Oregon travels to Atlanta to take on the reigning national champion Georgia Bulldogs in Week 1. Oregon’s new coach, Dan Lanning, was the defensive coordinator at Georgia last year. The Ducks also have a new, albeit very experienced, quarterback in Auburn transfer Bo Nix. Nix is a huge improvement over last year’s Oregon starter. Oregon will be an interesting team to watch this year. However, Georgia should still be the Georgia we have come to expect during Kirby Smart’s time at the school. The Bulldog defense will rank right at or near the top again this season. Oregon will have a tough time scoring, but Lanning will know exactly what to expect. Despite this, taking on a top defense in your first game as a head coach, no matter how familiar, is a tall task. The large spread is fair. This game will get lots of views and will be overbet by those looking for action on a game they can watch. Too much uncertainty surrounds this game and better opportunities can be found elsewhere on the Week 1 slate. The play: Pass
Tulsa @ Wyoming (+6.5)
Sept 3rd 3:30 PM
Tulsa @ Wyoming (+6.5)
Sept 3rd 3:30 PM
Tulsa travels to Laramie to take on the Wyoming Cowboys to open action in 2022. The Golden Hurricane have been a fairly consistent program under Philip Montgomery. Not much talent is on the Tulsa roster but Montgomery typically gets the most from it. Tulsa might have trouble in the trenches in an unfamiliar environment, but Wyoming is on a downward trajectory at the moment that should help Tulsa overall in this contest. Still, 6.5 is a lot to be laying on the road at a very difficult place to play. Wyoming was terrible last week once Illinois wore the Cowboys down. Wyoming completed just five passes in the blowout loss, and the Cowboys seemed to never get going on offense. Losses at the quarterback and running back positions have already proven large and this season might get away from the seemingly unflappable Craig Bohl quickly. My ratings have this game much closer than the spread, but backing anemic offenses that have yet to show even a modicum of reliability tends to add losses to the betting ledger. The bet to be made by the numbers is Wyoming, but the Cowboys might prove to be much worse than expected. This matchup screams stay away. The play: Hard Pass
UTEP @ Oklahoma (-31)
Sept 3rd 3:30 PM
Oklahoma opens the Brent Venables era facing a CUSA opponent already with a loss. Dana Dimel and UTEP come to Norman having been defeated at home by North Texas in a frustrating Week 0 loss. Obviously, everyone knows OU lost a bunch when Lincoln Riley bolted for USC. The coach took a lot of talent with him and others picked different schools. Either way, Oklahoma will not be the same team they were last season. Venables was a great hire and should hit the ground running. After all, this is still Oklahoma. They will be just fine in the long run. Venables has been a great defensive coordinator at Clemson and served at OU before that. It will be interesting to watch this team progress through the season. UTEP, on the other hand, has a solid quarterback who played well last year and Dana Dimel is a creative coach who is not afraid to use trick plays and slowing down the pace of the game at the risk of blowout losses against much superior opponents. Dimel might understand this concept in FBS better than any other head coach. Oklahoma is still good, no doubt about that; but are the Sooners elite? It seems they are not as of this very moment. Time will tell. UTEP is clearly overmatched talent wise but Dimel should get full effort from his team. Whether or not that effort translates to points is a big question that will be answered Saturday. The play: Pass, but UTEP+31 would not be the worst bet ever made.
Cincinnati @ Arkansas (-6)
Sept 3rd 3:30 PM
Cincinnati getting six points against Arkansas should make for an exciting game to both watch and wager. However, this spread seems to be very fair and accurate. There is no bet to be made on this game. My ratings have Arkansas favored by 6.5. Cincinnati has some new faces and loses valuable experience crucial to their CFP run a year ago. The defense will still be formidable and win the Bearcats some games. Luke Fickell is a fantastic coach, but the losses are substantial. Arkansas has a solid and smart passer and boasts a top notch offensive line. If Arkansas were in any division outside the SEC West, they would have a great shot at winning 11 games. Sam Pittman has been masterful so far. The play: Pass
Troy at Ole Miss (-21)
Sept 3rd 4:00 PM
Non-conference games tend to be regional and this game is no exception. Troy travels to Oxford for Jon Sumrall’s first game as head coach. The Sunbelt program will likely be overmatched by Lane Kiffin’s Rebels. Moving the ball quickly will be a weekly occurrence for Ole Miss, despite losing excellent passer Matt Corral. Jaxson Dart comes over from USC and fits Kiffin’s offense well. Additionally, the rest of the skills positions are deep and talented. The offense will barely miss a beat. On the other side of the ball, Ole Miss is thin up front but the scheme focuses on the back 7 who are talented and well coached. Ole Miss might struggle stopping the run against top end programs but containing a G5 ground game is doable. Troy might find itself over its head in this matchup. Kiffin seems to like running up the score when possible and this game is a great opportunity to do just that. While the spread is fair, it is slightly inaccurate. Look for the Rebels to try and impress against the first time head coach. The play: Ole Miss-21 (3 units)
BYU @ USF (+12)
Sept 3rd 4:00 PM
BYU enters 2022 with lots to prove after a disappointing bowl game loss to UAB. Make no mistake, the Cougars had a wonderful season last year; after all, BYU went 5-0 against the PAC 12. But the bowl loss left a bad taste in the mouths of fans. BYU could be ready to take a big step forward with a no nonsense schedule and some big matchups that will garner national attention. Contrasting that is South Florida. The Bulls have been in the FBS basement for a few years now and want that to change immediately. Jeff Scott has struggled so far at USF but is making ever so slight improvements. However, those improvements likely won’t be apparent in Week 1. BYU should clobber USF on the line of scrimmage, particularly when in possession. USF has experience, but lacks serious talent. The Bulls will look better than the past few years but are still overmatched by Kalani Sitake’s well coached and disciplined team. The spread is fair, -12 is a “dead number,” and USF played respectably at home last season. The play: Pass
Texas State @ Nevada (-1)
Sept 3rd 3:00 PM
Nevada comes off a Week 0 win at New Mexico State that was less than inspiring. The Wolf Pack barely scored 20+ points against arguably the worst team in FBS. Nevada looked very bad at times but was able to prevail simply because of NMSU’s futility. Still, being pick in a home opener against a low level Sunbelt team is not the most difficult spread to beat. Texas State, a relatively new FBS program, is difficult to figure. Jake Spavital, both the head coach and offensive coordinator, has struggled to implement his system but has been given sufficient time at the helm. Beating Nevada in Reno would be the biggest road win by far in Spavital’s time at San Marcos. Don’t expect to find the highest quality football, if you, for whatever reason, decide to watch this game. Either side could win this one. The play: Pass
FAU @ Ohio (+4.5)
Sept 3rd 6:00 PM
FAU travels to Athens to face Ohio in Week 1 of the 2022 season. FAU handily beat CUSA opponent Charlotte in Week 0. Ohio comes off a poor 3-9 year after the surprise retirement of long time coach Frank Solich. FAU has decent talent that played erratically at times last year. N’Kosi Perry is a fair quarterback at the G5 level and he has some experience at the P5 level. Likewise, head coach Willie Taggart has led power programs prior to his time with the Owls. Ohio starts the second season with Tim Albins as head coach. The Bobcats had a poor record last year but still scored and never got blown out in MAC play. Kurtis Rourke has lots of familiarity with the Ohio offense and is probably more competent than his FAU counterpart, albeit much less talented. The matchup is very even and my ratings have Ohio favored. Betting home underdogs against non elite teams pays off in the long run. The play: Ohio+4.5 (3 units)
Rice @ USC (-33)
Sept 3rd 6:00 PM
UTEP @ Oklahoma (-31)
Sept 3rd 3:30 PM
Oklahoma opens the Brent Venables era facing a CUSA opponent already with a loss. Dana Dimel and UTEP come to Norman having been defeated at home by North Texas in a frustrating Week 0 loss. Obviously, everyone knows OU lost a bunch when Lincoln Riley bolted for USC. The coach took a lot of talent with him and others picked different schools. Either way, Oklahoma will not be the same team they were last season. Venables was a great hire and should hit the ground running. After all, this is still Oklahoma. They will be just fine in the long run. Venables has been a great defensive coordinator at Clemson and served at OU before that. It will be interesting to watch this team progress through the season. UTEP, on the other hand, has a solid quarterback who played well last year and Dana Dimel is a creative coach who is not afraid to use trick plays and slowing down the pace of the game at the risk of blowout losses against much superior opponents. Dimel might understand this concept in FBS better than any other head coach. Oklahoma is still good, no doubt about that; but are the Sooners elite? It seems they are not as of this very moment. Time will tell. UTEP is clearly overmatched talent wise but Dimel should get full effort from his team. Whether or not that effort translates to points is a big question that will be answered Saturday. The play: Pass, but UTEP+31 would not be the worst bet ever made.
Cincinnati @ Arkansas (-6)
Sept 3rd 3:30 PM
Cincinnati getting six points against Arkansas should make for an exciting game to both watch and wager. However, this spread seems to be very fair and accurate. There is no bet to be made on this game. My ratings have Arkansas favored by 6.5. Cincinnati has some new faces and loses valuable experience crucial to their CFP run a year ago. The defense will still be formidable and win the Bearcats some games. Luke Fickell is a fantastic coach, but the losses are substantial. Arkansas has a solid and smart passer and boasts a top notch offensive line. If Arkansas were in any division outside the SEC West, they would have a great shot at winning 11 games. Sam Pittman has been masterful so far. The play: Pass
Troy at Ole Miss (-21)
Sept 3rd 4:00 PM
Non-conference games tend to be regional and this game is no exception. Troy travels to Oxford for Jon Sumrall’s first game as head coach. The Sunbelt program will likely be overmatched by Lane Kiffin’s Rebels. Moving the ball quickly will be a weekly occurrence for Ole Miss, despite losing excellent passer Matt Corral. Jaxson Dart comes over from USC and fits Kiffin’s offense well. Additionally, the rest of the skills positions are deep and talented. The offense will barely miss a beat. On the other side of the ball, Ole Miss is thin up front but the scheme focuses on the back 7 who are talented and well coached. Ole Miss might struggle stopping the run against top end programs but containing a G5 ground game is doable. Troy might find itself over its head in this matchup. Kiffin seems to like running up the score when possible and this game is a great opportunity to do just that. While the spread is fair, it is slightly inaccurate. Look for the Rebels to try and impress against the first time head coach. The play: Ole Miss-21 (3 units)
BYU @ USF (+12)
Sept 3rd 4:00 PM
BYU enters 2022 with lots to prove after a disappointing bowl game loss to UAB. Make no mistake, the Cougars had a wonderful season last year; after all, BYU went 5-0 against the PAC 12. But the bowl loss left a bad taste in the mouths of fans. BYU could be ready to take a big step forward with a no nonsense schedule and some big matchups that will garner national attention. Contrasting that is South Florida. The Bulls have been in the FBS basement for a few years now and want that to change immediately. Jeff Scott has struggled so far at USF but is making ever so slight improvements. However, those improvements likely won’t be apparent in Week 1. BYU should clobber USF on the line of scrimmage, particularly when in possession. USF has experience, but lacks serious talent. The Bulls will look better than the past few years but are still overmatched by Kalani Sitake’s well coached and disciplined team. The spread is fair, -12 is a “dead number,” and USF played respectably at home last season. The play: Pass
Texas State @ Nevada (-1)
Sept 3rd 3:00 PM
Nevada comes off a Week 0 win at New Mexico State that was less than inspiring. The Wolf Pack barely scored 20+ points against arguably the worst team in FBS. Nevada looked very bad at times but was able to prevail simply because of NMSU’s futility. Still, being pick in a home opener against a low level Sunbelt team is not the most difficult spread to beat. Texas State, a relatively new FBS program, is difficult to figure. Jake Spavital, both the head coach and offensive coordinator, has struggled to implement his system but has been given sufficient time at the helm. Beating Nevada in Reno would be the biggest road win by far in Spavital’s time at San Marcos. Don’t expect to find the highest quality football, if you, for whatever reason, decide to watch this game. Either side could win this one. The play: Pass
FAU @ Ohio (+4.5)
Sept 3rd 6:00 PM
FAU travels to Athens to face Ohio in Week 1 of the 2022 season. FAU handily beat CUSA opponent Charlotte in Week 0. Ohio comes off a poor 3-9 year after the surprise retirement of long time coach Frank Solich. FAU has decent talent that played erratically at times last year. N’Kosi Perry is a fair quarterback at the G5 level and he has some experience at the P5 level. Likewise, head coach Willie Taggart has led power programs prior to his time with the Owls. Ohio starts the second season with Tim Albins as head coach. The Bobcats had a poor record last year but still scored and never got blown out in MAC play. Kurtis Rourke has lots of familiarity with the Ohio offense and is probably more competent than his FAU counterpart, albeit much less talented. The matchup is very even and my ratings have Ohio favored. Betting home underdogs against non elite teams pays off in the long run. The play: Ohio+4.5 (3 units)
Rice @ USC (-33)
Sept 3rd 6:00 PM
There is no need to dive deep into USC hosting Rice to open the Lincoln Riley era. Everyone knows what Riley and his offense brings to the table. Caleb Willaims, among others, comes over from Oklahoma with Riley to inherit the Trojans spot at quarterback. Biletnikoff winner Jordan Addison transfers in from Pitt and will perfectly fit Riley’s offense. Watch for Williams to Addison all season long. Rice is a well coached but under talented CUSA team every year so far under Mike Bloomgren. Rice should barely move the ball in this game and its defense will look like a sieve at times, if not the entire first half. The big fav is the pick but -34 is a ton, even with the massive talent disparity. Look for Riley to justify his massive contract by running it up quickly. Rice will try, sure, but to no avail. Arguing against laying the favorite would be tough, but there are better numbers to wager. The play: Pass
MTSU @ JMU (-5.5)
Sept 3rd 6:00 PM
No value exists in the -5.5 spread offered favoring JMU over MTSU. Sure, JMU should be excited playing its first FBS game. The perennial CAA power moves up to the Sunbelt and faces a middling CUSA team at home. The line is surprisingly spot on. Betting spreads where value does not exist is a long term strategy for going broke. Besides, 5.5 is a dead number in both directions. No thanks. The play: Hard Pass
Utah @ Florida (+3)
Sept 3rd 7:00 PM
Utah seeks to cement its spot in the CFP discussion early this year when it tries to win as a road favorite in SEC country. The Utes look to justify the PAC 12’s status as a power conference, for the time being, by beating Florida in the swamp. A PAC 12 visitor being favored at a blue blood SEC program is normally unthinkable, but Utah has the goods in 2022 to be competitive at the very top of college football. Kyle Whittingham has been the head coach at Utah for quite some time and this is his best team yet. Solid line play on both sides, a stout defense, and a reliable quarterback will have Utah favored often this season. They certainly have the tools to win a bunch of games. The Utes are a deserving favorite to win the PAC 12. On the other side, Florida enters a new era with Billy Napier leading the way. Napier coached as an assistant at several high profile programs before leading Louisiana to successes it had never before achieved. Napier is a smart and thorough coach not afraid to think outside the box. He immediately got to work overhauling Florida’s coaching staff and expanding roles within the coaching offices. Suffice to say, Napier is a noticeable change from Dan Mullen. As for this game, the line is a bit surprising even when considering Utah’s 2022 expectations. It is rare to see an SEC team as a dog at home to a non-conference foe. However, as good as Napier should be, Utah is much more experienced together than is Florida. The line movement has suggested the bettors believe the Utah hype. My ratings say Utah should be slightly favored and they are. As tempting as this game is to bet, there is no positive expected value to be had. The play: Grudgingly Pass.
UMass @ Tulane (-28.5)
Sept 3rd 7:00 PM
Willie Fritz is one of the best coaches in FBS and has done an admirable job at Tulane, a school with tougher than most academic standards and with minimal investment from the school. Michael Pratt should have his best year as quarterback for the Green Wave. UMass is a program in transition as Don Brown returns to Amherst replacing Walt Bell. The Minutemen have been awful the last few years and their only victory last year was against lowly UConn. Ellis Merriweather is an excellent running back, but UMass has no other serious talent on the roster. There is absolutely no reason to bet this game. My ratings have Tulane favored by about the same as the spread. The play: Pass
Miami-OH @ Kentucky (-16.5)
Sept 3rd 7:00 PM
The Miami-OH at Kentucky matchup can be looked at purely from a betting standpoint. Miami-OH is a team expected to contend for the MAC title, while Kentucky is a ground and pound SEC team who relies on clock control and solid defense. The spread could easily be higher but why was it bet down? First off, Kentucky’s star running back, Chris Rodriguez will not be playing. That alone can count for the spread being at least a field goal lower. But what else? As previously stated, Miami-OH is a good squad despite playing in the lowly MAC. Fading a quality G5 team is not the best gambling approach early in the year, or ever really. If the spread makes it down below two full scores, sharper bettors may come back on Kentucky. But for now, the spread leaves something to be desired. Kentucky would be a fair bet under 14 but it will be tough to get there. The play: Pass (for now)
Liberty @ Southern Miss (+3.5)
Sept 3rd 7:00 PM
The Liberty Flames open the 2022 season as 3.5 point favorites on the road at Southern Mississippi. Hugh Freeze is a good coach and has served the independent Flames well during his tenure. Charlie Brewer comes over from Utah, but is better known from his time as Baylor’s quarterback several years ago. The Flames are an average team but have some talent. Replacing Malik Willis at quarterback will be difficult but Brewer is better and more seasoned than most others would have been. Southern Miss is coming off a strange year that resulted in lots of losses and injuries. Frank Gore, JR., USM's star running back even took some snaps late in the year. Southern Miss drastically improved down the stretch and came somewhat close to upsetting UTSA at the Alamo Dome. Coach Hall is doing the best he can for the Golden Eagles. Favoring Liberty by 3.5 on the road is not the most shocking spread but does create a bit of a conundrum. Liberty’s best players are better than Southern Miss’s best players, but the Flames worst units are worse than the Golden Eagles’ worst units. Typically, taking a home dog is the smart play. However, Liberty has enough of an edge to where a USM win outright would be a bit of a surprise. The spread could be a tad larger and because it is not, there is no play to make. The Play: Pass
Army @ Coastal Carolina (-2)
Sept 3rd 7:00 PM
Service Academy games are always difficult to bet and this Army game is no exception. Coastal Carolina hosts the Black Knights in Conway and the linemakers expect it to be close. Jeff Monken is a fantastic coach and Army’s deadly triple option can eat up yards a dozen at a time occasionally. Army is, and will continue to be, a tough fade. Coastal Carolina has become the darlings of the Sunbelt since the personable Jamey Chadwell took over. Chadwell runs perhaps the most entertaining offense in FBS today. The Chanticleers run a triple option offense out of the gun that includes passing as one of the options. Grayson McCall is one of the most efficient passers in NCAA history and he should continue his above average performances in 2022. He will need to carry Coastal this season and lift up the offense due to bunches of lost production. The Chanticleer’s defense is not the best but should be acceptable in the Sunbelt. The spread for this game is spot on with viewing merely for pleasure. The play: Pass
Georgia State @ South Carolina (-12.5)
Sept 3rd 7:30 PM
Georgia State will be one of the best teams to bet all year in 2022. The Panthers, led by smart and tough coach Shawn Elliott, have an experienced quarterback and a very solid run game that helped them to a convincing bowl win last year. Watch out for the Panthers. South Carolina, is a deserving favorite to open the year against the G5 opponent. The Gamecocks will be improved as coach Shane Beamer further implements his system. Spencer Rattler is a huge addition at quarterback as the former Heisman hopeful transfers in from Oklahoma. South Carolina is solid on both sides of the ball and will surprise as a dog in the mighty SEC. Regarding this game, the spread is a tough number and understandably has not moved all that much. My ratings have South Carolina favored by 17.5, but Georgia State plays a style of football that is rarely smart to fade as a bettor. Plus, South Carolina would not be entirely faulted for looking ahead to their SEC matchup at Arkansas next week. However, if South Carolina plays to their full potential, Georgia State will have a difficult time moving the ball and could feasibly get shut out. This game is probably best to be left alone unless the spread moves drastically. Until that happens, it’s a no bet. The play: Pass, for now
Notre Dame @ Ohio State (-17)
Sept 3rd 7:30 PM
No game features a matchup between bigger brand names in Week 1 than when Ohio State hosts Notre Dame. Ohio State entered 2022 with massive expectations that appear justified on paper. Ryan Day has done a good job as Ohio State’s coach but is still seeking a national championship. This will be his best chance yet. CJ Stroud will have plenty of time to drop back and throw deep all year and should put up or exceed his gaudy passing numbers from a year ago. The Buckeyes have a top five running back and top five wide receivers. The offense may be the best in FBS. The Ohio State defense is not too shabby either. Loaded with talent on all three levels, Jim Knowles’s arrival as defensive coordinator from Oklahoma State should allow the talent to finally get needed stops, keeping opponents from scoring as often as last year. This team is scary good and rightfully rates in the top three nationally. Notre Dame changed coaches for the first time in over a decade after Brian Kelly fled down south to LSU. Marcus Freeman did a good job as defensive coordinator at Cincinnati for several years and at Notre Dame last year, and he is believed to have been Notre Dame’s main recruiter last year. Regardless, being a first time head coach at one of the biggest names in college football is no easy task. Freeman has the backing of his players so it will be interesting to see if he can handle the management required of a head coach. Visiting a top notch Ohio State in primetime is not exactly the cake walk of a game Notre Dame typically faces in Week 1. Nevertheless, the Irish have the talent to keep it close, for a while that is. Ohio State might be the most elite they have been in a very long time. Fading such teams does not pay in the long run. The spread stands at 17 favoring the home team. There is no value in this game unless you believe in Notre Dame’s excellent defense to hold Ohio State enough times to let the offense use the clock and stay in the game. Otherwise, the score could get ugly fast. The play: Pass
MTSU @ JMU (-5.5)
Sept 3rd 6:00 PM
No value exists in the -5.5 spread offered favoring JMU over MTSU. Sure, JMU should be excited playing its first FBS game. The perennial CAA power moves up to the Sunbelt and faces a middling CUSA team at home. The line is surprisingly spot on. Betting spreads where value does not exist is a long term strategy for going broke. Besides, 5.5 is a dead number in both directions. No thanks. The play: Hard Pass
Utah @ Florida (+3)
Sept 3rd 7:00 PM
Utah seeks to cement its spot in the CFP discussion early this year when it tries to win as a road favorite in SEC country. The Utes look to justify the PAC 12’s status as a power conference, for the time being, by beating Florida in the swamp. A PAC 12 visitor being favored at a blue blood SEC program is normally unthinkable, but Utah has the goods in 2022 to be competitive at the very top of college football. Kyle Whittingham has been the head coach at Utah for quite some time and this is his best team yet. Solid line play on both sides, a stout defense, and a reliable quarterback will have Utah favored often this season. They certainly have the tools to win a bunch of games. The Utes are a deserving favorite to win the PAC 12. On the other side, Florida enters a new era with Billy Napier leading the way. Napier coached as an assistant at several high profile programs before leading Louisiana to successes it had never before achieved. Napier is a smart and thorough coach not afraid to think outside the box. He immediately got to work overhauling Florida’s coaching staff and expanding roles within the coaching offices. Suffice to say, Napier is a noticeable change from Dan Mullen. As for this game, the line is a bit surprising even when considering Utah’s 2022 expectations. It is rare to see an SEC team as a dog at home to a non-conference foe. However, as good as Napier should be, Utah is much more experienced together than is Florida. The line movement has suggested the bettors believe the Utah hype. My ratings say Utah should be slightly favored and they are. As tempting as this game is to bet, there is no positive expected value to be had. The play: Grudgingly Pass.
UMass @ Tulane (-28.5)
Sept 3rd 7:00 PM
Willie Fritz is one of the best coaches in FBS and has done an admirable job at Tulane, a school with tougher than most academic standards and with minimal investment from the school. Michael Pratt should have his best year as quarterback for the Green Wave. UMass is a program in transition as Don Brown returns to Amherst replacing Walt Bell. The Minutemen have been awful the last few years and their only victory last year was against lowly UConn. Ellis Merriweather is an excellent running back, but UMass has no other serious talent on the roster. There is absolutely no reason to bet this game. My ratings have Tulane favored by about the same as the spread. The play: Pass
Miami-OH @ Kentucky (-16.5)
Sept 3rd 7:00 PM
The Miami-OH at Kentucky matchup can be looked at purely from a betting standpoint. Miami-OH is a team expected to contend for the MAC title, while Kentucky is a ground and pound SEC team who relies on clock control and solid defense. The spread could easily be higher but why was it bet down? First off, Kentucky’s star running back, Chris Rodriguez will not be playing. That alone can count for the spread being at least a field goal lower. But what else? As previously stated, Miami-OH is a good squad despite playing in the lowly MAC. Fading a quality G5 team is not the best gambling approach early in the year, or ever really. If the spread makes it down below two full scores, sharper bettors may come back on Kentucky. But for now, the spread leaves something to be desired. Kentucky would be a fair bet under 14 but it will be tough to get there. The play: Pass (for now)
Liberty @ Southern Miss (+3.5)
Sept 3rd 7:00 PM
The Liberty Flames open the 2022 season as 3.5 point favorites on the road at Southern Mississippi. Hugh Freeze is a good coach and has served the independent Flames well during his tenure. Charlie Brewer comes over from Utah, but is better known from his time as Baylor’s quarterback several years ago. The Flames are an average team but have some talent. Replacing Malik Willis at quarterback will be difficult but Brewer is better and more seasoned than most others would have been. Southern Miss is coming off a strange year that resulted in lots of losses and injuries. Frank Gore, JR., USM's star running back even took some snaps late in the year. Southern Miss drastically improved down the stretch and came somewhat close to upsetting UTSA at the Alamo Dome. Coach Hall is doing the best he can for the Golden Eagles. Favoring Liberty by 3.5 on the road is not the most shocking spread but does create a bit of a conundrum. Liberty’s best players are better than Southern Miss’s best players, but the Flames worst units are worse than the Golden Eagles’ worst units. Typically, taking a home dog is the smart play. However, Liberty has enough of an edge to where a USM win outright would be a bit of a surprise. The spread could be a tad larger and because it is not, there is no play to make. The Play: Pass
Army @ Coastal Carolina (-2)
Sept 3rd 7:00 PM
Service Academy games are always difficult to bet and this Army game is no exception. Coastal Carolina hosts the Black Knights in Conway and the linemakers expect it to be close. Jeff Monken is a fantastic coach and Army’s deadly triple option can eat up yards a dozen at a time occasionally. Army is, and will continue to be, a tough fade. Coastal Carolina has become the darlings of the Sunbelt since the personable Jamey Chadwell took over. Chadwell runs perhaps the most entertaining offense in FBS today. The Chanticleers run a triple option offense out of the gun that includes passing as one of the options. Grayson McCall is one of the most efficient passers in NCAA history and he should continue his above average performances in 2022. He will need to carry Coastal this season and lift up the offense due to bunches of lost production. The Chanticleer’s defense is not the best but should be acceptable in the Sunbelt. The spread for this game is spot on with viewing merely for pleasure. The play: Pass
Georgia State @ South Carolina (-12.5)
Sept 3rd 7:30 PM
Georgia State will be one of the best teams to bet all year in 2022. The Panthers, led by smart and tough coach Shawn Elliott, have an experienced quarterback and a very solid run game that helped them to a convincing bowl win last year. Watch out for the Panthers. South Carolina, is a deserving favorite to open the year against the G5 opponent. The Gamecocks will be improved as coach Shane Beamer further implements his system. Spencer Rattler is a huge addition at quarterback as the former Heisman hopeful transfers in from Oklahoma. South Carolina is solid on both sides of the ball and will surprise as a dog in the mighty SEC. Regarding this game, the spread is a tough number and understandably has not moved all that much. My ratings have South Carolina favored by 17.5, but Georgia State plays a style of football that is rarely smart to fade as a bettor. Plus, South Carolina would not be entirely faulted for looking ahead to their SEC matchup at Arkansas next week. However, if South Carolina plays to their full potential, Georgia State will have a difficult time moving the ball and could feasibly get shut out. This game is probably best to be left alone unless the spread moves drastically. Until that happens, it’s a no bet. The play: Pass, for now
Notre Dame @ Ohio State (-17)
Sept 3rd 7:30 PM
No game features a matchup between bigger brand names in Week 1 than when Ohio State hosts Notre Dame. Ohio State entered 2022 with massive expectations that appear justified on paper. Ryan Day has done a good job as Ohio State’s coach but is still seeking a national championship. This will be his best chance yet. CJ Stroud will have plenty of time to drop back and throw deep all year and should put up or exceed his gaudy passing numbers from a year ago. The Buckeyes have a top five running back and top five wide receivers. The offense may be the best in FBS. The Ohio State defense is not too shabby either. Loaded with talent on all three levels, Jim Knowles’s arrival as defensive coordinator from Oklahoma State should allow the talent to finally get needed stops, keeping opponents from scoring as often as last year. This team is scary good and rightfully rates in the top three nationally. Notre Dame changed coaches for the first time in over a decade after Brian Kelly fled down south to LSU. Marcus Freeman did a good job as defensive coordinator at Cincinnati for several years and at Notre Dame last year, and he is believed to have been Notre Dame’s main recruiter last year. Regardless, being a first time head coach at one of the biggest names in college football is no easy task. Freeman has the backing of his players so it will be interesting to see if he can handle the management required of a head coach. Visiting a top notch Ohio State in primetime is not exactly the cake walk of a game Notre Dame typically faces in Week 1. Nevertheless, the Irish have the talent to keep it close, for a while that is. Ohio State might be the most elite they have been in a very long time. Fading such teams does not pay in the long run. The spread stands at 17 favoring the home team. There is no value in this game unless you believe in Notre Dame’s excellent defense to hold Ohio State enough times to let the offense use the clock and stay in the game. Otherwise, the score could get ugly fast. The play: Pass
SMU @ North Texas (+11)
Sept 3rd 7:30 PM
SMU opens the Rhett Lashlee era visiting Denton to take on North Texas. The Mean Green won their opener in Week 0 against fellow CUSA team UTEP. North Texas played well but were outgained by the Miners. A couple of goal line stands and a UTEP fumble allowed North Texas to win by a margin larger than the true closeness of the game. As expected, North Texas had a balanced attack led by longtime quarterback Austin Aune. Seth Litrell’s defense played well against UTEP and shut out the Miners in three of the quarters. North Texas takes a step up in class when they host SMU. The Mustangs have perhaps the best passer in the AAC and the offense won’t change that much under Miami’s former offensive coordinator. Defense in general is the Achilles' heel for SMU, and the Mustangs might have trouble stopping the persistent North Texas attack at times. North Texas does not draw well and the crowd will have plenty of SMU supporters present. Even so, the spread seems a bit on the high side. Sure, SMU has the talent edge and is not traveling all that far. However, starting a new coaching era on the road at a better than poor opponent is not the easiest game. North Texas will have some trouble stopping the SMU passing game but has the offense to make a last minute score to cover through the back door. It would not be all that surprising if North Texas were to pull off the upset on the field. The play: UNT+11 (3 units)
Utah State @ Alabama (-42)
Sept 3rd 7:30 PM
Utah State had a hard time with UConn for the first 20 minutes last week (i.e. this will NOT be close). Alabama comes into 2022 as they do almost every year now; as the top rated team. The spread is spot on at 42 and there is no value to be had wagering on such a number. The play: Pass
Memphis @ Mississippi State (-16)
Sept 3rd 7:30 PM
Mississippi State hosts Memphis in a rematch of a controversial game from last season. Memphis defeated Mississippi State at home after a few questionable rulings from the officials. Mississippi State looks to have a wide enough lead to negate any poor calls this time around. Mike Leach has done a fair job installing the Air Raid offense in the SEC. Will Rogers is an excellent passer and is expected to put the ball in the air as often as anybody in FBS this season. Memphis will have a difficult time containing the Bulldogs passing attack. The Tigers have an average offense and will likely get mauled by Mississippi State on the line. Memphis will score but likely not enough to contend on the field. Beating the spread might be a more manageable goal. However, that may even be asking too much. My ratings have Mississippi State favored by 28. The 16 point spread is not the most desirable but still leaves a comfortable margin of safety if the ratings are accurate. Mississippi State is home, has a good coach who likes to win by a ton, and a persistent offense will score at will. The play: Mississippi State-16 (7 units)
Louisville @ Syracuse (+4.5)
Sept 3rd 8:00 PM
Syracuse hosts Louisville to start the year with an ACC game. Syracuse will rely heavily on the running of Sean Tucker. The running back has been tremendous for the Orange and is on many award watch lists. Dino Babers has largely disappointed in his time at Syracuse and needs a solid season to keep the confidence of the administration. Louisville has a good secondary and is capable of keying its linebackers towards the run game. The Orange will struggle passing and might find themselves with a poor third down conversion rate. Meanwhile, Malik Cunningham is an electric quarterback who rivals Tucker as the best player on the field. The Syracuse defense will have its hands full trying to stop Cunningham. The spread is relatively fair when considering how tough Syracuse can be in the dome. Plus this is the first game of the year so enthusiasm will be high. My ratings have Louisville favored slightly more than the spread but laying road favorites at night is not a great bet. This game could be a wild journey with a crazy ending. The play: Pass, but definitely a game to watch
ULM @ Texas (-37)
Sept 3rd 8:00 PM
Yet another massive spread appears on the Week 1 schedule. Naturally, this is not unexpected due to the number of non-conference games between true power programs and the lower teams of the group of five. Texas again faces bigger than life expectations despite the disappointing 2021 that saw the Longhorns suffer their largest losing streak since before World War II, a loss to Kansas in Austin, and not making a bowl. Quinn Ewers takes over at quarterback and should be quite talented. Texas has talent all over but turning that into wins is the biggest task Steve Sarkisian has. The Warhawks of Louisiana - Monroe have little to no chance in Austin on Saturday. ULM is one of the worst funded programs in FBS and coach Terry Bowden can only do so much. ULM will take the pay day and move on from this game. It is not very bettable, but ULM has gotten some action earlier in the week betting this line down a few points. My ratings have ULM as 34.5 point dog but that fails to provide the margin of safety I demand when betting a sizeable spread. The play: Pass
Kent State @ Washington (-22.5)
Sept 3rd 10:30 PM
Sean Lewis’s Flash Fast offense visits Seattle when it takes on The Washington Huskies under new coach Kalen DeBoer. DeBoer comes over from a successful stint at Fresno State. Washington nearly lured highly rated quarterback Jake Haener from Fresno through the portal, but Haener stayed when Fresno re-hired Jeff Tedford after he took several years off for medical reasons. Meanwhile, Washington ended the short and tumultuous Jimmy Lake era that can’t be described as anything but a failure. Washington looks to get back to its winning ways in the PAC 12 and should start the season off with a victory against the overmatched MAC opponent. Lewis’s offense is fun to watch and should be able to move the ball at times but it remains to be seen if Kent State has the overall talent to score consistently against a P5 defense. Kent State loses its solid quarterback from last season, Dustin Crum, who is now in the NFL. Kent State will face some hiccups until the new passer settles in. 21.5 seems like a lot for a new coach to cover, but even an average PAC 12 team should hold a solid MAC team under 30. My ratings have this one closer but I’d rather back underdogs that I think can win outright. I do not feel that is the case here. The play: Pass
Boise State @ Oregon State (-3)
Sept 3rd 10:30 PM
The spread on this game has been volatile so I will keep it at -3 to stay on a key number. Oregon State tries to rebound from a disappointing bowl loss to last year’s Mountain West champion, Utah State. The Beavers looked straight up lost at times in that game. Jonathan Smith has done a good job in Corvallis, but has yet to make the leap into a true contender. Oregon State’s stadium is under reconstruction currently which will create a strange home environment with half the stadium gone. In terms of the team, the Beavers’ offense is solid in the areas where sharp bettors look most. They have an experienced quarterback that can manage the game and a terrific offensive line. On the other hand, the defense is lacking up front and decent at linebacker and in the secondary. Hank Bachmeier will try his best to stretch the Beaver defense and put up points on the road. The rest of the roster is less than impressive and will need Bachmeier to carry the team. Boise, of course, is no stranger to upsetting P5 programs, but those days are longer ago than it seems. Andy Avalos is a deep step down from the Chris Peterson days, and possibly a step down from Bryan Harsin, who is struggling at Auburn. Don’t misunderstand, Boise remains a formidable Mountain West program, but they are no longer the dominant team of yesteryear. Oregon State laying three is too low for this spot and this line seems more built on history than current reality. The play: Oregon State-3 (7 units)
WKU @ Hawai’i (+16)
Sept 3rd Midnight
Simply put, Hawai’i presently is not a bettable team. The Rainbow Warriors looked downright awful last week. The defense allowed a ghastly 9.2 yards per carry to a less than average Vanderbilt team. The struggles are not surprising given the offseason Hawai’i had. The spread in this game reflects that. Meanwhile Western Kentuky struggled to get past FCS Austin Peay. The Governors looked the Hilltoppers equal for vast stretches. The point is: This is not a good wagering opportunity. The play: Hard Pass
Florida State v. LSU (-3)
Sept 4th 7:30 PM (New Orleans, LA)
The only game of the day on Sunday features two all time programs playing in New Orleans. Florida State has struggled to return to prominence since Jimbo Fisher left for Texas A&M. LSU was there quite recently when Joe Burrow led LSU to one of the best college football seasons in history. Much has changed since. Brian Kelly shockingly left Notre Dame to take the LSU coaching job. The team had lots of transfers in and out and it will take a little time to gauge how well the team comes together. Meanwhile, FSU has struggled mightily under Mike Norvell since he took over for Fisher. The Noles boosters are likely getting antsy with the slow, seemingly nonexistent, progress. Florida State still has a ways to go. The talent is there, but it must prove the ability to win games against high quality opponents before any claims at contending in the ACC can be taken seriously. A lot of questions surround this game. However, on talent alone LSU is better than the field goal spread. Never mind that this is basically a home game. Expect a carnival atmosphere in the Superdome. The play: LSU-3 (3 units)
Clemson @ Georgia Tech (+22)
Sept 5th 8:00 PM
The final game of Week 1 features Clemson traveling to Atlanta to play Georgia Tech. Clemson, unsurprisingly, is laying a bunch of points. The Tigers lose both coordinators to head coaching positions elsewhere. Despite the loss of Brent Venables, Clemson should keep Georgia Tech off the scoreboard for most of the game. A shut out is not out of reach. The Tigers have my top rated defense in FBS and will be a dominant force that could carry Clemson back to the CFP after missing last year. It would be surprising if Georgia Tech scores more than ten points in this game. The Yellowjackets offense is better than it has been, but did lose its best player, running back Jahmyr Gibbs, to Alabama through the portal. Clemson’s offense is talented, but not as much as it could be. Remember, both coordinator’s have departed. Tony Elliot is now the head coach at Virginia. Quarterback DJ Uiagalelei really disappointed last year, throwing for more interceptions than touchdowns. I expect top recruit, Cade Klubnik, to take over the starting role at some point this season. He may even get some snaps Sunday if Georgia Tech is safely out of reach. The spread moved up to 22. My rating have this at 23, but would not be shocked if Clemson is up that much at halftime. Still, waiting for more favorable numbers is smart. It is a long season. The play: Clemson-22 (3 units) if you need some Labor Day action, otherwise, pass
WKU @ Hawai’i (+16)
Sept 3rd Midnight
Simply put, Hawai’i presently is not a bettable team. The Rainbow Warriors looked downright awful last week. The defense allowed a ghastly 9.2 yards per carry to a less than average Vanderbilt team. The struggles are not surprising given the offseason Hawai’i had. The spread in this game reflects that. Meanwhile Western Kentuky struggled to get past FCS Austin Peay. The Governors looked the Hilltoppers equal for vast stretches. The point is: This is not a good wagering opportunity. The play: Hard Pass
Florida State v. LSU (-3)
Sept 4th 7:30 PM (New Orleans, LA)
The only game of the day on Sunday features two all time programs playing in New Orleans. Florida State has struggled to return to prominence since Jimbo Fisher left for Texas A&M. LSU was there quite recently when Joe Burrow led LSU to one of the best college football seasons in history. Much has changed since. Brian Kelly shockingly left Notre Dame to take the LSU coaching job. The team had lots of transfers in and out and it will take a little time to gauge how well the team comes together. Meanwhile, FSU has struggled mightily under Mike Norvell since he took over for Fisher. The Noles boosters are likely getting antsy with the slow, seemingly nonexistent, progress. Florida State still has a ways to go. The talent is there, but it must prove the ability to win games against high quality opponents before any claims at contending in the ACC can be taken seriously. A lot of questions surround this game. However, on talent alone LSU is better than the field goal spread. Never mind that this is basically a home game. Expect a carnival atmosphere in the Superdome. The play: LSU-3 (3 units)
Clemson @ Georgia Tech (+22)
Sept 5th 8:00 PM
The final game of Week 1 features Clemson traveling to Atlanta to play Georgia Tech. Clemson, unsurprisingly, is laying a bunch of points. The Tigers lose both coordinators to head coaching positions elsewhere. Despite the loss of Brent Venables, Clemson should keep Georgia Tech off the scoreboard for most of the game. A shut out is not out of reach. The Tigers have my top rated defense in FBS and will be a dominant force that could carry Clemson back to the CFP after missing last year. It would be surprising if Georgia Tech scores more than ten points in this game. The Yellowjackets offense is better than it has been, but did lose its best player, running back Jahmyr Gibbs, to Alabama through the portal. Clemson’s offense is talented, but not as much as it could be. Remember, both coordinator’s have departed. Tony Elliot is now the head coach at Virginia. Quarterback DJ Uiagalelei really disappointed last year, throwing for more interceptions than touchdowns. I expect top recruit, Cade Klubnik, to take over the starting role at some point this season. He may even get some snaps Sunday if Georgia Tech is safely out of reach. The spread moved up to 22. My rating have this at 23, but would not be shocked if Clemson is up that much at halftime. Still, waiting for more favorable numbers is smart. It is a long season. The play: Clemson-22 (3 units) if you need some Labor Day action, otherwise, pass
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