WEEK 0
Betting info as of 8/24 per Bovada
Northwestern vs. Nebraska (-13.5)
The season kicks off with a Big Ten showdown in Ireland. While both teams had disappointing seasons last year, Nebraska was at least competitive in nearly every single game they played. Meanwhile, Northwestern was underwhelming to say the least. Each team looks to greatly improve in 2022 and possibly compete in the Big Ten West. From a wagering perspective, Nebraska laying double digits on a neutral field across the Atlantic with a new quarterback (Texas transfer Casey Thompson) is a difficult ask. Having said that, Northwestern was simply put, not good last year. Pat Fitzgerald is possibly the best coach in FBS but has a tall task righting the ship this campaign. He has accomplished remarkable turnarounds in past years that suggest more wins this year, but I would wait and see before betting on the wildcats. Given the game is being played in an unknown unfamiliar environment and the favored team has someone new under center after years of relative stability with Adrian Martinez, this game is a pass. If you absolutely need to satiate a need for a bet on college football, take the points with Northwestern, but make it a small bet. The play: Pass or NW+13.5 (3 units).
Wyoming @ Illinois (-11)
The Wyoming Cowboys visit Champaign to take on the Illini in their first action of 2022. The non conference matchup features two hard boiled coaches known for running the ball and typically tough defense. Craig Bohl has the smarts and strategy to take on a Big Ten rival. However, Bret Bielema matches up almost identically in terms of coaching philosophy. Wyoming is coming off a very disappointing year in which yours truly had them actually winning the Mountain West before the season. Wyoming was plagued by poor quarterback play and lost both of last year’s starters to the portal. Illinois is probably in a better situation than last year even after making some marked improvements in Bielema’s first season at the helm. Look for Illinois to control both lines of scrimmage and pull away late as their Big Ten size will eventually wear down Wyoming’s respectable G5 lines. The spread being over a touchdown is not the most attractive but Illinois’s better talent and status as an improving Big Ten program should allow them to cover. The play: Illinois-11 (3 units)
UConn @ Utah State (-26.5)
Uconn, perhaps the most maligned college football program of the last several years, opens the new season with a visit to reigning Mountain West champion, Utah State. UConn has myriad new faces starting with the head coach. Jim Mora, of UCLA and Atlanta Falcons fame, takes over the program that has spent the better part of a decade floundering in FBS’s basement. UConn starts a new quarterback who comes over from Penn State. The independent Huskies look to improve in all phases and units but still likely lack the talent to compete with even the most average of teams at college football’s highest level. UConn would fare better against mid-tier FCS teams. However, the huskies will be improved over the last two years but will still have hiccups with a nearly entirely new staff and quarterback. On the other hand, Utah State is nearly the complete opposite of UConn regarding the program’s trajectory. Blake Anderson did a masterful job in his first season in Logan after coming over from a successful time at Arkansas State. The Aggies were terrific on both sides of the ball last year and have two solid quarterback options. The sizable spread makes this game tough to predict. Plus, the spread and spot makes this bet prohibitive. My personal ratings have UConn being the smart bet. However, Utah State is a better team by miles; it is not remotely close, for now. It will be apparent early in this one if UConn has a real opportunity to cover or if Utah State will roll. The play: Hard Pass; small bet on UConn+26.5 (3 units), if you must.
Charlotte @ FAU (-7.5)
The 2022 CUSA schedule starts right away in Week 0 with Charlotte visiting Florida Atlantic. Will Healy will attempt to get Charlotte back to a bowl after a down year in 2021. Meanwhile, Willie Taggart tries to get FAU’s decent talent back up the CUSA standings with some of the top competition leaving for the Sunbelt Conference. The breakdown for this game is simple from a betting perspective: either FAU’s talent is vastly superior to Charlotte’s and the Owls roll in the home opener, or Charlotte’s better coaching keeps the 49ers in the contest on the road long enough to keep this within reach. If Charlotte competes for most of the game, the backdoor will be in play for either team as the clock winds down. My ratings have this one much closer than the bookmakers think. The play: Charlotte+7.5 (3 units)
North Texas @ UTEP (pk)
UTEP welcomes North Texas to El Paso to open 2022 with a CUSA matchup. The Mean Green have fared quite well during Seth Litrell’s time in Denton, making bowls consistently and playing a fun to watch offense yearly. UTEP, who was the CUSA doormat for a time, improved drastically last year as Dana Dimel has finally gotten the experience on the depth chart he built up over several years. This should be a well coached game; look out for a few tricks up each coach’s sleeve. After all, this is a conference game and neither side will be looking to veil their long term strategy. UTEP is not the easiest place for a road team, but it is not the toughest either. North Texas ended last season on a winning streak, including a win against CUSA champ UTSA, before losing to Miami, Ohio in the bowl. UTEP had a good season beating the teams they should have and should be close to contending for a CUSA title game spot in 2022. This matchup is my favorite of Week 0 and could be very entertaining. Betting a home team of relatively equal strength in a conference matchup should pay dividends in the long term. The line being pick is a bit of a head scratcher, but I’ll gladly take the home team to win as we routinely look to make good bets over being able to pick any individual game correctly. The play: UTEP pick (3 units; possibly 7 units depending on line movement).
Nevada @ NMSU (+9)
Possibly the most underwhelming game of the Week 0 slate to not feature an FCS team is Nevada visiting New Mexico State. Nevada should be in good hands with long time assistant Ken Wilson taking over in Reno, but the Wolf Pack lose loads of talent on both sides of the ball. Carson Strong kept Nevada in many games last year along with star receiver Romeo Doubs. The top duo departs for pro ball and Nevada is left reeling after head coach Jay Norvell fled to Colorado State. The drop off this year will be apparent early and often. Look for Nevada to struggle early and possibly all year long. Wilson has his work cut out for him for now. Meanwhile, Jerry Kill takes over at New Mexico State. There is not much to say about the Aggies, who find themselves in familiar territory at the bottom of the FBS ranks. Some new faces dot the depth chart and New Mexico State could improve with the experience on the sideline, but it will be an uphill battle for the independent all year. My ratings have Nevada favored by 4.5 on the road, but my rankings have NMSU as the worst team in all of FBS. There is truly no great advantage to be had betting an early season game involving two programs surrounded by lots of uncertainties. This game is a pass for me, but, like the UConn game above, I couldn’t argue if you take the points. The play: Hard pass/NMSU+9 if you are craving action that much.
Vanderbilt @ Hawai’i (+8)
Week 0’s nightcap features a familiar late night program welcoming the worst SEC team to the islands. Hawai’i had a tumultuous offseason that included the state legislature actually hearing testimony from players about how much they disliked coach Todd Graham. Tommy Chang, the venerable Hawai’i quarterback, takes over as a first time head coach at his alma mater. The program looks to drastically change directions and has nearly an entire new staff. The quarterback situation is fluid and look for the Rainbow Warriors to rotate players at nearly every position until there is some fit. 2022 will be a rebuilding year in the biggest sense. Week 0 could be filled with mental errors for Hawai’i. Vanderbilt looks to snag a rare road win in their visit to the Pacific. Clark Lea has done a pretty good job at Vanderbilt, even if the win column does not reflect so. Remember, Vanderbilt has possibly the toughest academic standards of any FBS program and has neglected investing in the football facilities for quite some time. New improvements are scheduled but the present still looks bleak. Vandy ranks near the bottom at every position unit in the SEC, and in FBS for that matter. This matchup is tough to handicap and quite frankly, presents no great betting opportunity. There are just too many questions for these two teams to take a strong side. Hawai’i has lots of new faces and is still playing in a glorified practice facility until a new Aloha Stadium is built. Vanderbilt has a smart coach and some reliable players, but still lacks the talent necessary to compete with even below average FBS teams. My ratings have this spread about right and no key numbers are coming into play. The play: No bet
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