CONFERENCE CHAMPIOINSHIP BETS

 CONFERENCE CHAMPIONSHIP BETS

Betting Info as of 12/2 per Bovada; Game Location will be noted if a neutral site

All Times are Eastern

Friday, Dec 2nd

North Texas @ UTSA (-8)

7:30 PM 

UTSA hosts the CUSA Championship game at its home field, the Alamodome. The Roadrunners had a fantastic year yet again going 10-2. A two point shootout loss to Houston and a road loss at Texas are the only blemishes on the record. Coach Jeff Traylor got his team to play their best as the team’s rating rose a field goal over the course of the year. The squad was clearly looking ahead to this game last week during a shocking first half which saw UTSA trail by over three scores. A big comeback occurred and the conference record remains unbeaten. Meanwhile, North Texas reaches the championship suffering only two CUSA losses; one in this same place. Seth Litrell has done a fine job in Denton and the Mean Green have played about to their expected level. Last year, North Texas stunned UTSA in the final week of the regular season with a blowout win at home. This year, UTSA beat UNT by four at home in the regular season and will need its best effort to win (and cover) this time around. Laying eight in a conference title game is a lot. Yet, UTSA at its best could destroy North Texas. Sure, UNT has the offensive firepower and experience to score with the best of the G5. But, UTSA is focused and will tally up yard after yard on the ground. The spread is a bit high so only a small bet makes sense. The play: UTSA-8 (1 unit)

Utah vs USC (-3)

8:00 PM (Allegiant Stadium, Las Vegas, NV)

All that is standing between USC and its first CFP appearance is the one team which defeated it this season. The Utah Utes look to clinch a spot in a NY6 game yet again with an upset Friday night. This could be the best game of the weekend. Lincoln Riley had a successful season regardless of the PAC-12 title game outcome. The coach easily improved USC’s power rating in no time at all. However, the defense could prevent the Trojans from reaching the CFP. Utah has solid line play on both sides. Kyle Whittimngham is an excellent coach and the team’s power rating never strayed too far from what was expected. Although, the Utes were a serious preseason contender to make the CFP. This game could absolutely come down to a field goal or even a two point attempt like the first matchup. The spread is about right and you really should shop around for the best line. However, the likelihood of finding one rogue spread is tiny. Take the points with a field goal, lay anything less than minus-2.5. The play: Utah+3 (1 unit)/USC-2 (1 unit)

Saturday, Dec 3rd

Toledo vs Ohio (+3)

NOON (Ford Field, Detroit, MI)

Ohio seeks to finally win a MAC championship when it takes the field against Toledo Saturday. The Bobcats have never won the title game in their four previous appearances. Ohio has not lost a game since October 1st. Tim Albins has done a great job with this team. Toledo will be the best conference opponent faced this year, but quarterback DeQuan Finn and his backup have been recently hampered by injuries. At the same time, Ohio quarterback Kurtis Rourke is out for the remainder of the season. Given the quarterback situation, this game should really be passed unless you have some great info on the starters for Saturday. The play: Pass

 

Kansas State vs TCU (-1.5)

NOON (AT&T Stadium, Arlington, TX)

The Big 12 championship is yet another conference championship game to feature a field goal spread this weekend. Both teams are solid and have played above their typical ratings lately. The Wildcats have improved a full touchdown over the course of the year, while TCU slammed through its expected ceiling by rising nearly two touchdowns in Sonny Dykes first season in Fort Worth. Speaking of Dykes, the man can coach. What a fantastic job. The Toads have had many close calls this season, but Dykes seemed to always have an ace up his sleeve or a rabbit in his hat. The last second win at Baylor was particularly striking. Will Dykes need one more trick to get TCU into the CFP and avenge past snubs, or will his opposing coach finally be the one this season to add a loss to TCU’s record? Chris Kliemann has that opportunity. Another terrific coach, Kliemann has K-State in its first Big XII Championship game since its reincarnation several years ago. Running back Deuce Vaughn is one of the most dependable players in the country and will be relied upon to carry the load Saturday. Either team can win this game, the coaches are relatively equal, and spread is roughly accurate. Look for TCU to pull off another close victory and lay the two. Come back on K-State if the spread gets above a field goal. This one will contend with the PAC-12 game for the best game of the weekend. The play: TCU-1.5 (1 unit)

Coastal Carolina @ Troy (-8)

3:30 PM 

Coastal Carolina would be favored here if star quarterback Grayson McCall was not out with injury. McCall is one of the most valuable players to his team in FBS. Without him, the Chanticleers might struggle. Still, the backup is not terrible and coach Jamey Chadwell is as creative as they come. Troy looks to end a great season in Jon Sumrall’s first season at the helm. Talk about another great coaching job. Sumrall only lost one conference game and it was on a hail mary at Appalachian State early in the season. The Trojans have not been this good in some time and a win would put Troy into a decent bowl game. For now, this game is difficult to cap with the absence of McCall. Rating Coastal Carolina is very difficult, but Troy could run up the score on the less than stellar Coastal defense. The uncertainty and rather large spread make this not particularly playable. The play: Pass

LSU vs Georgia (-17.5)

4:00 PM (Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta, GA)

This spread is spot on. There is no value to be had betting this game. Georgia is the top dog in FBS for now, and LSU is too unpredictable to back or fade. The play: Pass

Fresno State @ Boise State (-3)

4:00 PM

The Fresno State Bulldogs have a chance of winning one of the most interesting Mountain West Championships in history. The Bulldogs have an excellent passer who is projected to play in the NFL. Coach Jeff Tedford came out of retirement following the offseason departure of Kalen DeBoer to Wasihngton. During the season, Haener’s absence against UConn allowed the Huskies to pull off a shocking upset (at the time). However, since a 20 point loss at Boise State the following week, Fresno has not lost a game. Haener is the team. Without him, Fresno is one of the worst teams in FBS. With Haener, Fresno can hang with any G5 team and beat a good number of lower end P5 squads. Jeff Tedford is an excellent coach who knows how to win games like this. Meanwhile, Andy Avalos turned Boise’s season around following a surprising Friday night loss at UTEP. The much heralded Hank Bachmeier entered the portal early in the season and 2022 seemed to be a lost year. However, the Broncos dominated the conference slate and did not lose once in league play. Still, Boise State is not up to the numbers of yesteryear and Avalos has yet to prove he can win a big game. Fresno pulled off this same upset several years ago. Let’s see if they can do it again. The play: Fresno State+3 (1 unit) 

UCF @ Tulane (-4)

4:00 PM

This spread is about right. However, it is a bit surprising how much respect the Green Wave are getting from oddsmakers and early bettors alike given the fact Tulane lost this exact same matchup only a few weeks ago. Willie Fritz has gotten the program to heights not seen in a generation. A win here would be huge for Tulane, forget the cover. Meanwhile, UCF has floated around its typical number most of the year. Gus Malzahn is terribly underrated and seems to thrive in big games (Auburn fans might vehemently disagree). This game could be a close one or a UCF blowout. It would be a surprise for Tulane to win by a blowout, but perhaps the Green Wave learned just enough from the first go round to flip the script this week. However, the outcome is too hard to predict and no solid opinion can be formed here. The play: Pass

Clemson vs North Carolina (+7.5)

8:00 PM (Bank of America Stadium, Charlotte, NC)

Clemson is far better than North Carolina regardless of last week’s loss to a surging South Carolina team. The defense remains solid and the offense is just good enough to win games. The loss of any shot at the CFP hurts a ton this week which could allow for a let down (even in the ACC title!!!). North Carolina lost its shot at the playoff the week before and followed that up with a home OT loss to rival NC State. Clemson was fluttering around its expected low rating all year long. The offense was never dependable enough but the Tigers were still superior to their conference opponents. After all, Clemson did not lose an ACC game. The Notre Dame blowout loss was somewhat surprising and last week was probably more a matter of form than true strength. Clemson at even its most average could win this one going away. The motivation factor is a concern and prevents this from being a bigger bet. However, laying a hook on the high side of seven is just asking for a backdoor cover. So, wait and see how the line moves. Jump on Clemson minus-8 or minus-7. The play: Clemson-7 or -8 (1 unit either way).  

Purdue vs Michigan (-16.5) 

8:00 PM (Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis, IN)

Michigan likely has a CFP spot guaranteed regardless of Saturday’s outcome. The Wolverines would not be favored by this much prior to last week’s huge win at Ohio State. That much is obvious. However, the change is a direct reflection of how much a win in Columbus can increase your power rating. These two did not meet during the regular season. The excellent Purdue passer Aidan O’Connell will play despite losing his brother last week and missing some prep time to attend to his family. Purdue has a phenomenal and creative coach, but the Boilermakers neglect defense against competent opponents. Additionally, Purdue barely won the West and struggled against better teams all year. Purdue is good enough and the spread is accurate enough to prevent laying Michigan big. However, the Wolverines have covered large spreads all season long and they are really looking forward to a higher seed in this year’s rendition of the CFP. The play: Michigan-16.5 (1 unit)